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gold_dredger_phd
ParticipantWhat we’re going to get is probably what we don’t expect. Maybe 20 years of stagflation based on offshoring of jobs to China and India and $150 dollar a barrel oil in today’s dollars.
Peak Oil is here. Another oil shock along with huge debt burdens will drive the economy down just like in the mid-70’s.
ParticipantIt’s useless to time the market. Who can do that successfully? All you can say is that the valuations don’t seem right or too high and then you sell everything.
The easiest thing to do is just not buy any new stocks during times like these. I thought the market was too high in May of this year, but I held on and my portfolio went up by 20%! Buffett is right about timing the market.
Just keep a load of cash on hand and buy during the next correction. Assuming of course, that you want to keep your assetts denominated in dollars.
ParticipantBut Dick Cheney said deficits don’t matter and Reagan proved it.
Deficits *do* matter, but maybe not for a few decades or they matter when the politicians are no longer in office.
Why should we be astonished when people take their home equity out and spend it thinking that they never have to pay it back. Homeowners can’t print money like the government can.
Parents can live very well if they have some means of making their children pay for it or maybe their neighbors’ children.
ParticipantI’m in Carmel Valley near I-5. The neighborhood is Torrey Hills and the landlord said that even though house prices were falling in the area, the mortgages were still between $5-8K per month. People in that area of Torrey Hills have been asking some outrageous prices for houses and not getting it. The house I co-owned in 2002 only went up in value by 30% by the time I sold my share.
I used to own in this area and have seen houses that were on sale for $700K in 2002 on sale in 2006 for 1.45 million. Neither of these properties sold where the buyer tried to get close to twice his purchase price.
The apartment owner, it’s a big complex, probably saw what other places were getting for rent and decided to increase their asking price. Maybe they are trying to clear out the complex of middle class people so that only professional couples with two incomes live there. They may be trying to get rid of families as well, knowing that one income may be all they have.
We will likely have a recession in 2007 or it should be obvious by that time, so they may have to lower their rents in 2008-2009. We might be looking at houses by that time.
ParticipantJES:
You’re right. I can’t stand the people here. Especially the self-important yo-yos who have to brag about how many homes they have. They are very materialistic and care for not much else beyond their possessions, vacations, trips to the spa and how much they make. Very shallow, like in Palo Alto where I used to live.The nastiest people I have encountered as strangers are in New York City. I’ve never seen such ill-tempered, mean, cynical people in my life. I was there for several hours and could not wait to leave.
ParticipantThis is why I go to the internet when I want to learn something and not watch television for “news.” Television is for entertainment and sometimes for a shallow learning experience, but when you really want to learn something, you have to read it, at the very least.
My parents watch the Evening News, since it’s what they grew up with and maybe they read the paper. They get none of their information on the internet, but they are in their 70’s and that’s the demographic of the evening news viewership. Television is too readily used for propaganda which is why I routinely discount everything I see or hear on television.
They will never show you any graphs like this on TV. Better to show burning cars or houses. It’s much more interesting to viewers who are looking for eye candy.
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