[gn]

I agree with SD Realtor.

In reality, most people do not think in a logical/rational way. After all, if they do, we wouldn’t have a bubble in the first place.

They are emotional about profits & losses. It is always the psychology that drive prices up & down.

In 2002 – 2005, it’s: prices always go up, never down.
In 2006 – 2007, it’s: prices may go down, but not much …

The psychology is “turning”. Like a giant oil tanker, it takes a long time to change direction. Real estate is the ultimate momentum market.

I suspect that,
In 2009 – 2010, it’s: the days of home prices appreciaton are over. Homes are just shelters not investments.

[gn]

I agree with SD Realtor.

In reality, most people do not think in a logical/rational way. After all, if they do, we wouldn’t have a bubble in the first place.

They are emotional about profits & losses. It is always the psychology that drive prices up & down.

In 2002 – 2005, it’s: prices always go up, never down.
In 2006 – 2007, it’s: prices may go down, but not much …

The psychology is “turning”. Like a giant oil tanker, it takes a long time to change direction. Real estate is the ultimate momentum market.

I suspect that,
In 2009 – 2010, it’s: the days of home prices appreciaton are over. Homes are just shelters not investments.

[gn]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for the clarification.

The only reason I asked is b/c I thought you meant the following: CM will fare worse than places like Rancho Bernardo & Scripts Ranch

[gn]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for the clarification.

The only reason I asked is b/c I thought you meant the following: CM will fare worse than places like Rancho Bernardo & Scripts Ranch

[gn]

SD Realtor,

“I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down”

I thought Carmel Mountain is a pretty good area. Why do you think so ? Is this house in a “bad” area of CM ?

[gn]

SD Realtor,

“I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down”

I thought Carmel Mountain is a pretty good area. Why do you think so ? Is this house in a “bad” area of CM ?

[gn]

American Dreamer,

In today’s market, the must-sell inventory consists of:

1. New homes (b/c builders are under pressure to generate revenues).
2. Foreclosed properties by lenders.

When you said: “Nobody seems to be under any real pressure to sell”, I think you meant there aren’t that many must-sell properties in today’s market, which is arguable.

Now, the number of properties in #2 will continue to go up in the next 2 years. That’s b/c there will be a large number of ARM resetting in the next 2 years. That’s when we will see the real discounts.

[gn]

American Dreamer,

In today’s market, the must-sell inventory consists of:

1. New homes (b/c builders are under pressure to generate revenues).
2. Foreclosed properties by lenders.

When you said: “Nobody seems to be under any real pressure to sell”, I think you meant there aren’t that many must-sell properties in today’s market, which is arguable.

Now, the number of properties in #2 will continue to go up in the next 2 years. That’s b/c there will be a large number of ARM resetting in the next 2 years. That’s when we will see the real discounts.

[gn]

myito,

Now that you told us about your finances, I can tell you that many folks here at Piggington (including myself) have more money than you. Yet, we chose to rent single family houses instead of buying. And we do that because of STABILITY:

Emotional stability for the children: We have 2 kids. At the house I’m renting, there is 4 bedrooms & a back yard for them to play. Children are happy when they have adequate living space & loving parents. The facts that my wife & I are not home owners is quite irrelevant.

Financial stability: Yes, it’s true that we currently have financial stability. But, the money we save from avoiding equity loss when home prices go down (and they are going down as we speak) means that we have EVEN MORE financial stability in the future.

As you can see, we will NOT be on the sideline forever. We are just waiting for the right time to POUNCE on the real estate market with our buying power 🙂

You said that “Renting sucks plain and simple”. I don’t think so. In fact, I think that buying right now sucks!

[gn]

myito,

Now that you told us about your finances, I can tell you that many folks here at Piggington (including myself) have more money than you. Yet, we chose to rent single family houses instead of buying. And we do that because of STABILITY:

Emotional stability for the children: We have 2 kids. At the house I’m renting, there is 4 bedrooms & a back yard for them to play. Children are happy when they have adequate living space & loving parents. The facts that my wife & I are not home owners is quite irrelevant.

Financial stability: Yes, it’s true that we currently have financial stability. But, the money we save from avoiding equity loss when home prices go down (and they are going down as we speak) means that we have EVEN MORE financial stability in the future.

As you can see, we will NOT be on the sideline forever. We are just waiting for the right time to POUNCE on the real estate market with our buying power 🙂

You said that “Renting sucks plain and simple”. I don’t think so. In fact, I think that buying right now sucks!

[gn]

I have the feeling that:

Deep down inside, schizo2buyORnot is afraid that the prevailing sentiment at Piggington may be correct. That’s because schizo2buyORnot probably realizes that many of the people at Piggington know a lot about real estate.

schizo2buyORnot reminds me of 23109VC in Temecula. He kept insisting that prices will not fall much & pulled the trigger. As soon as he bought his house, someone else got a much better deal for a nearby house 🙂

[gn]

I have the feeling that:

Deep down inside, schizo2buyORnot is afraid that the prevailing sentiment at Piggington may be correct. That’s because schizo2buyORnot probably realizes that many of the people at Piggington know a lot about real estate.

schizo2buyORnot reminds me of 23109VC in Temecula. He kept insisting that prices will not fall much & pulled the trigger. As soon as he bought his house, someone else got a much better deal for a nearby house 🙂

[gn]

Yes, it’s true that the builders are able to sell home.

Now, that’s largely b/c they reduced prices to attract buyers. For every new house sold, there is a re-sale house not being sold. In this market, the builders are simply stealing sales away from the re-sale market.

The fact that builders are able to sell-out a phase is NOT because of strong demand. It is because of their pricing strategy.

Most people don’t understand this. When they see builders selling well, they think: the market has reached the bottom, let’s buy 🙂

[gn]

Yes, it’s true that the builders are able to sell home.

Now, that’s largely b/c they reduced prices to attract buyers. For every new house sold, there is a re-sale house not being sold. In this market, the builders are simply stealing sales away from the re-sale market.

The fact that builders are able to sell-out a phase is NOT because of strong demand. It is because of their pricing strategy.

Most people don’t understand this. When they see builders selling well, they think: the market has reached the bottom, let’s buy 🙂

[gn]

“Is that the way to do business, or are they really rich?”

It’s called denial.

Of course, these homeowners will tell you that “denial” is not a state of mind, it is a river in Egypt 🙂

[Author]

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