11863 WILMINGTON RD, SD – Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128

[waitingtobuy]

Hi

Here is an intersting listing that probably got into escrow today..( Shows inactive in ziprealty)

this home was initially listed for $709k
On 6/22, price reduced to $547k
0n 6/26, it got into escrow ( after staying 23 days in market)

Why did seller suddenly drop the price by ~22%.
The home was originally purchased in 1999, so it must have a lots of equity. Does it mean that sellers are finally realizing that they need to cut price and make a move? I hope that happens….

[SD Realtor]

waitingtobuy there is quite a history on this home. It is broker owned. Basically the guy has been listing this home for over a year now.

3/30/05 – 8/4/05 he had it at 775 and lowered it to 725-745k
2/21/06 – 5/20/06 he had it at 699k and lowered it to 670-685k
4/4/07 -6/3/07 he had it at 697 and lowered it to 675k and then he withdrew it.

Then he relisted it on 6/7/07 and he listed it at 709-737k. Then on 6/22 he changed the price to 547k and he put in the following comments:

“Home will be sold to the highest most reasonable bid this weekend only….then in the confidential remarks… “Broker Owner; Sale price for this weekend only! Buyers must add Agent’s commission on top of thier winning bid. Open House/Auction June 23 & 24 12-5pm.”

*********

So he is now in escrow… I am not sure what this guy owes on the home. He has a mortgage for 475k in 06 plus a 30k private party loan after that. There are some other small private party loans prior to the mortgage so I don’t know if they were paid off or not.

It will be interesting to see what he gets for this home. Looks like his auction worked. Also looked like he was quite unrealistic in all his previous pricing.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

waitingtobuy there is quite a history on this home. It is broker owned. Basically the guy has been listing this home for over a year now.

3/30/05 – 8/4/05 he had it at 775 and lowered it to 725-745k
2/21/06 – 5/20/06 he had it at 699k and lowered it to 670-685k
4/4/07 -6/3/07 he had it at 697 and lowered it to 675k and then he withdrew it.

Then he relisted it on 6/7/07 and he listed it at 709-737k. Then on 6/22 he changed the price to 547k and he put in the following comments:

“Home will be sold to the highest most reasonable bid this weekend only….then in the confidential remarks… “Broker Owner; Sale price for this weekend only! Buyers must add Agent’s commission on top of thier winning bid. Open House/Auction June 23 & 24 12-5pm.”

*********

So he is now in escrow… I am not sure what this guy owes on the home. He has a mortgage for 475k in 06 plus a 30k private party loan after that. There are some other small private party loans prior to the mortgage so I don’t know if they were paid off or not.

It will be interesting to see what he gets for this home. Looks like his auction worked. Also looked like he was quite unrealistic in all his previous pricing.

SD Realtor

[hpi]

So the purchase price is 580k or higher.

SD realtor, what is the fair price for this home at current market?

[hpi]

So the purchase price is 580k or higher.

SD realtor, what is the fair price for this home at current market?

[SD Realtor]

hpi we will not know what the purchase price is until escrow closes.

there is a sale at 11978 Wilmington that closed in April for 697k for a bit smaller floorplan. Then another on Newporter Way for 625k in January for an another floorplan that is still a bit smaller as well. Then again there is another expiration at 11915 Wilmington at 649-699k.

So at current market it could be argued that mid to higher 600’s would at least appraise. However I would not recommend paying that much for a home like this. I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

hpi we will not know what the purchase price is until escrow closes.

there is a sale at 11978 Wilmington that closed in April for 697k for a bit smaller floorplan. Then another on Newporter Way for 625k in January for an another floorplan that is still a bit smaller as well. Then again there is another expiration at 11915 Wilmington at 649-699k.

So at current market it could be argued that mid to higher 600’s would at least appraise. However I would not recommend paying that much for a home like this. I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down.

SD Realtor

[gn]

SD Realtor,

“I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down”

I thought Carmel Mountain is a pretty good area. Why do you think so ? Is this house in a “bad” area of CM ?

[gn]

SD Realtor,

“I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down”

I thought Carmel Mountain is a pretty good area. Why do you think so ? Is this house in a “bad” area of CM ?

[SD Realtor]

gn –

Carmel Mtn is a nice area, fairly generic, good schools. The way the depreciation cycle will continue, IMO is that the first outlying areas and less desireable housing will get hit the hardest and continue to get whacked. We have definitely seen this and it is continuing. We have also seen the “nice” areas get hit to. These nice areas also have plenty of people who bought using risky financing vehicles thus they are going to pay in the end as well. They may be able to hold out longer because they are employed but they will eventually fail and be forced to sell as well. We have already seen price drops in nicer areas. Finally, yes this is CM and CM is nice, but it is pretty generic right? All the subdivisions are built out and have pretty standard designs. The best thing about CM is the school district for sure. So I am not saying anything bad about CM, I just think it will depreciate, or shall I say continue to depreciate.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

gn –

Carmel Mtn is a nice area, fairly generic, good schools. The way the depreciation cycle will continue, IMO is that the first outlying areas and less desireable housing will get hit the hardest and continue to get whacked. We have definitely seen this and it is continuing. We have also seen the “nice” areas get hit to. These nice areas also have plenty of people who bought using risky financing vehicles thus they are going to pay in the end as well. They may be able to hold out longer because they are employed but they will eventually fail and be forced to sell as well. We have already seen price drops in nicer areas. Finally, yes this is CM and CM is nice, but it is pretty generic right? All the subdivisions are built out and have pretty standard designs. The best thing about CM is the school district for sure. So I am not saying anything bad about CM, I just think it will depreciate, or shall I say continue to depreciate.

SD Realtor

[gn]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for the clarification.

The only reason I asked is b/c I thought you meant the following: CM will fare worse than places like Rancho Bernardo & Scripts Ranch

[gn]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for the clarification.

The only reason I asked is b/c I thought you meant the following: CM will fare worse than places like Rancho Bernardo & Scripts Ranch

[SD Realtor]

No I kind of think they will be in the same boat. My only caviot would be this. If there are segments of a particular zip code that have substantial equity then I feel they will simply ride the storm out rather then sell. Or they will put the home on the market to sell at a higher price then what the market is demanding and it won’t sell and they will not care.

Scripps, especially new Scripps, to me is just as vulnerable as any of the areas mentioned. Old Scripps “may” fare better, but only because more people in old Scripps have higher equity and will simply be stubborn and not give in to the market. However those that do have to sell, even in Old Scripps will succumb to price at whatever the market will demand. They may luck out though because of a lower supply in that micro market. This is all very speculative on my part and make no mistake I am not saying the immunity or protection will be substantial. I think this is true for other areas especially in north county that have mixes of older more established homeowners with lots of equity and newer subdivisions that may have future distressed homeowners.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No I kind of think they will be in the same boat. My only caviot would be this. If there are segments of a particular zip code that have substantial equity then I feel they will simply ride the storm out rather then sell. Or they will put the home on the market to sell at a higher price then what the market is demanding and it won’t sell and they will not care.

Scripps, especially new Scripps, to me is just as vulnerable as any of the areas mentioned. Old Scripps “may” fare better, but only because more people in old Scripps have higher equity and will simply be stubborn and not give in to the market. However those that do have to sell, even in Old Scripps will succumb to price at whatever the market will demand. They may luck out though because of a lower supply in that micro market. This is all very speculative on my part and make no mistake I am not saying the immunity or protection will be substantial. I think this is true for other areas especially in north county that have mixes of older more established homeowners with lots of equity and newer subdivisions that may have future distressed homeowners.

SD Realtor

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