Likely loss in Sabre Springs

[American Dreamer]

I am a new poster keeping an eye on this house in Sabre Springs, which I love (but which is overpriced by about 200k):

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076039544-11802_Baypony_Ln_San_Diego_CA_92128

It is currently on the market for 950,000 – 1,050,000, but there are much larger homes in the same area on the market for a similar listing price, so I am certain this one won’t fetch the asking price or anything near it (although for some reason, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this board, there seem to be plenty of impatient buyers who continue to pay these silly prices).

This home sold in March 2006 for 925,000, so it looks like the seller is going to suffer some sort of loss, and potentially a substantial one.

Any way to find out what the current seller’s financing situtation is on this house?

[SD Realtor]

That is in Hillsborough, we are not to far away from it.

Anyways they have been on the market for a little over a month. The seller bought in in 3/30/06 for 925k. It appears that they only have a first mortgage on it for 740k. I do not know what type of financing that mortgage is.

The same floorplan on Caneridge is priced about 150k less but it does not have the view that this one does. It also has a much much smaller lot then this one.

The home on Wooded Vista also has a smaller lot then Baypony but is a bit of a larger home and has an okay view as well. It is in escrow at a list price of 899k.

IMO all of these homes in this subdivision will come down pretty hard but it may take awhile.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

That is in Hillsborough, we are not to far away from it.

Anyways they have been on the market for a little over a month. The seller bought in in 3/30/06 for 925k. It appears that they only have a first mortgage on it for 740k. I do not know what type of financing that mortgage is.

The same floorplan on Caneridge is priced about 150k less but it does not have the view that this one does. It also has a much much smaller lot then this one.

The home on Wooded Vista also has a smaller lot then Baypony but is a bit of a larger home and has an okay view as well. It is in escrow at a list price of 899k.

IMO all of these homes in this subdivision will come down pretty hard but it may take awhile.

SD Realtor

[American Dreamer]

Thanks SD Realtor! I appreciate it, and agree with your assessement of this market. Nobody seems to be under any real pressure to sell, unfortunately.

[American Dreamer]

Thanks SD Realtor! I appreciate it, and agree with your assessement of this market. Nobody seems to be under any real pressure to sell, unfortunately.

[gn]

American Dreamer,

In today’s market, the must-sell inventory consists of:

1. New homes (b/c builders are under pressure to generate revenues).
2. Foreclosed properties by lenders.

When you said: “Nobody seems to be under any real pressure to sell”, I think you meant there aren’t that many must-sell properties in today’s market, which is arguable.

Now, the number of properties in #2 will continue to go up in the next 2 years. That’s b/c there will be a large number of ARM resetting in the next 2 years. That’s when we will see the real discounts.

[gn]

American Dreamer,

In today’s market, the must-sell inventory consists of:

1. New homes (b/c builders are under pressure to generate revenues).
2. Foreclosed properties by lenders.

When you said: “Nobody seems to be under any real pressure to sell”, I think you meant there aren’t that many must-sell properties in today’s market, which is arguable.

Now, the number of properties in #2 will continue to go up in the next 2 years. That’s b/c there will be a large number of ARM resetting in the next 2 years. That’s when we will see the real discounts.

[Anonymous]

SDrealtor,

I have a question about your comment on the first mortgage of 740K. The last time we got a mortgage was in 1996 at 110k. We live on one income raising three children, but my DH makes a high income by any measure out there. So, I am still in shock about the mortgages the young buyers and dual incomers will take on. Is 740k a fairly common mortgage amount in San Diego?

It looks like the owner of the above property has, maybe, 130K equity after selling expenses, if they are lucky. Could they even sell it for any less. It just seems everyone has high priced rich looking properites and they are basically broke. I don’t see how people call this getting rich in Ca real estate.

[Anonymous]

SDrealtor,

I have a question about your comment on the first mortgage of 740K. The last time we got a mortgage was in 1996 at 110k. We live on one income raising three children, but my DH makes a high income by any measure out there. So, I am still in shock about the mortgages the young buyers and dual incomers will take on. Is 740k a fairly common mortgage amount in San Diego?

It looks like the owner of the above property has, maybe, 130K equity after selling expenses, if they are lucky. Could they even sell it for any less. It just seems everyone has high priced rich looking properites and they are basically broke. I don’t see how people call this getting rich in Ca real estate.

[WaitingToExhale]

realestatefan – I actually have the same question. I’m one of those younger (actually not so young anymore, heading toward 40) buyers. I’ve been looking at all of the houses around for the past few years, since my income rose to what I WOULD have thought was a pretty respectable level… and for the life of me I have not been able to determine how there are so many people that could afford all of those home.

While I do not want to wish current homeowners ill, I am desperately hoping for a large drop in housing cost so I can afford to buy. And with a maxium reasonable” loan of 3X someone’s salary, that comes to $183000 per year to buy the median home in these parts. Ouch! Your $740K example should require a $245K yearly salary.

What am I missing?

[WaitingToExhale]

realestatefan – I actually have the same question. I’m one of those younger (actually not so young anymore, heading toward 40) buyers. I’ve been looking at all of the houses around for the past few years, since my income rose to what I WOULD have thought was a pretty respectable level… and for the life of me I have not been able to determine how there are so many people that could afford all of those home.

While I do not want to wish current homeowners ill, I am desperately hoping for a large drop in housing cost so I can afford to buy. And with a maxium reasonable” loan of 3X someone’s salary, that comes to $183000 per year to buy the median home in these parts. Ouch! Your $740K example should require a $245K yearly salary.

What am I missing?

[SD Realtor]

Guys I am in the same boat as you.

I should ammend my statement to say, I don’t know if this person that owns the home is in distress or not. We only know that she has a 740k mortgage on a home she purchased for 925k. Now we don’t know if it is an ARM or not, we don’t know the rate, we don’t know her employment status, her salary, if she has a ton of cash in the bank or equities in the market. We don’t know any of these things.

Maybe she is distressed, maybe not. I tend to think she is not distressed as she would have priced in a more aggressive manner. The 740k would not require any salary at all if she had a ton of money stashed away or an ex hubby, or who knows what.

You see what I am saying?

Now realistically I could not agree more with you. I work at my enginnering job, and my real estate job, I make okay money, but not nearly enough to take on a debt load that I see many take on. So I have been pushing all money into savings… I desperately want that same drop you guys want. Do I think it will come? Well it seems that it should, most people posting here will categorically confirm that it will…Personally… well like I said, it seems that it should and it will in most spots around the county for most types of housing.

Look, my wife has a business in La Jolla in skin care and our biggest references come from plastic surgeons around the county. There is a substantial amount of money in this county that has nothing to do with salary. I am not talking like everyone is a bazillionaire but man oh man are there alot of people who really do not have to sweat working much. Can this alone prop up the market? Not a chance. However, I am exposed to so many people with so much more money then I have it makes me go crazy…Talk about hard not to get bitter. sdr posts here to and I am sure he knows and sees it everyday as well.

Now is this more the exception then the rule? Of course. Are many of us in the boat making 100-200k and frustrated as hell cuz we don’t want to plunk down 800k to live in a decent neighborhood with great schools? YES WE ARE!! Do we have no clue how some of these people can do it? I HAVE NO CLUE but some can and MANY others cannot and it will catch up with them.

Hang in there… the big drop will most likely come if you want to wait for it. Will it happen in the neighborhood you want? Most likely but as I have always said and will always say… every person has a unique situation and needs to measure their own resources against the need to own a home.

[SD Realtor]

Guys I am in the same boat as you.

I should ammend my statement to say, I don’t know if this person that owns the home is in distress or not. We only know that she has a 740k mortgage on a home she purchased for 925k. Now we don’t know if it is an ARM or not, we don’t know the rate, we don’t know her employment status, her salary, if she has a ton of cash in the bank or equities in the market. We don’t know any of these things.

Maybe she is distressed, maybe not. I tend to think she is not distressed as she would have priced in a more aggressive manner. The 740k would not require any salary at all if she had a ton of money stashed away or an ex hubby, or who knows what.

You see what I am saying?

Now realistically I could not agree more with you. I work at my enginnering job, and my real estate job, I make okay money, but not nearly enough to take on a debt load that I see many take on. So I have been pushing all money into savings… I desperately want that same drop you guys want. Do I think it will come? Well it seems that it should, most people posting here will categorically confirm that it will…Personally… well like I said, it seems that it should and it will in most spots around the county for most types of housing.

Look, my wife has a business in La Jolla in skin care and our biggest references come from plastic surgeons around the county. There is a substantial amount of money in this county that has nothing to do with salary. I am not talking like everyone is a bazillionaire but man oh man are there alot of people who really do not have to sweat working much. Can this alone prop up the market? Not a chance. However, I am exposed to so many people with so much more money then I have it makes me go crazy…Talk about hard not to get bitter. sdr posts here to and I am sure he knows and sees it everyday as well.

Now is this more the exception then the rule? Of course. Are many of us in the boat making 100-200k and frustrated as hell cuz we don’t want to plunk down 800k to live in a decent neighborhood with great schools? YES WE ARE!! Do we have no clue how some of these people can do it? I HAVE NO CLUE but some can and MANY others cannot and it will catch up with them.

Hang in there… the big drop will most likely come if you want to wait for it. Will it happen in the neighborhood you want? Most likely but as I have always said and will always say… every person has a unique situation and needs to measure their own resources against the need to own a home.

[housingfreefall]

I have been a side line reader for some time and finally decided to join the group. If, not merily to be in the company of sane people. Our family realtor called my brother and began a long drawn out dialogue about the condition of real estate. Mind you we are talking top realtor, big office space 6500sqft, top floor office suites, 20 agents, a mortgage company and escrow division this guy is BIG!!!
He told my brother, walk outside, look left, look right and if it is not either one of those houses in foreclosure, then look at your own, becasue 1 in 3 are headed in to foreclosure. He brings up a property Chula Vista in the woods golf course, tells of a guy who bought it for 1.8mil put 500K in upgrades Stunning does not even begin to describe it. Guy gets in some sort of trouble, puts it on the market at 2.2mil nothing………….nothing…..lowered it to 1.8mil letting go of the 500K cash equity…nothing..bank took it over and flipped it back on to the market at 1.2mil, a locust field of buyers rushed in and the ending # was 1.4mil Mind you just a breath away worth this thing was worth 2.2mil..The realtor I mentioned before lived on the same street and was calling my brother to talk him out of using the ticket he bought to the Coronado bridge… This thing is going to unravel in a way that even a shark in the business will feel sorry for the casualties…wait, wait, and if you forget think about the agent he is still alive, but the comps in his area because of the sale of the stunning house~ just took a tank..he had paid 1.4 with a lot less sq footage and half the luxury a mere 8 month ago… The adage is true Remember stupid money always follows smart money.

[housingfreefall]

I have been a side line reader for some time and finally decided to join the group. If, not merily to be in the company of sane people. Our family realtor called my brother and began a long drawn out dialogue about the condition of real estate. Mind you we are talking top realtor, big office space 6500sqft, top floor office suites, 20 agents, a mortgage company and escrow division this guy is BIG!!!
He told my brother, walk outside, look left, look right and if it is not either one of those houses in foreclosure, then look at your own, becasue 1 in 3 are headed in to foreclosure. He brings up a property Chula Vista in the woods golf course, tells of a guy who bought it for 1.8mil put 500K in upgrades Stunning does not even begin to describe it. Guy gets in some sort of trouble, puts it on the market at 2.2mil nothing………….nothing…..lowered it to 1.8mil letting go of the 500K cash equity…nothing..bank took it over and flipped it back on to the market at 1.2mil, a locust field of buyers rushed in and the ending # was 1.4mil Mind you just a breath away worth this thing was worth 2.2mil..The realtor I mentioned before lived on the same street and was calling my brother to talk him out of using the ticket he bought to the Coronado bridge… This thing is going to unravel in a way that even a shark in the business will feel sorry for the casualties…wait, wait, and if you forget think about the agent he is still alive, but the comps in his area because of the sale of the stunning house~ just took a tank..he had paid 1.4 with a lot less sq footage and half the luxury a mere 8 month ago… The adage is true Remember stupid money always follows smart money.

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