Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
flyer
ParticipantAs many others, we’ve always purchased properties during down cycles, so the bubble concerns have never been an issue, but, this, from Dr. Housing Bubble, is an interesting take on the subject:
“The housing market is running on opioid induced euphoria and the tentacles of mania are deep into every large metro area. You would think given all this unchecked optimism that mortgage originations would be near a record level since you would assume people are out buying in mass. Yet that is not the case.
What is happening is people are fighting over the scraps with low inventory and are bidding prices up to ridiculous levels. And there is data to back this up which is important because people are living in an alternative reality. Loan origination volume hit a three year low this year. What? How is that possible when all the cheerleaders are out in the streets preaching the good gospel of buying real estate? Well the reality is that a good portion of the market is still driven by investors. If you need a loan, you can’t afford prime property.”
ParticipantCongrats to your son, scaredy. Hope all goes well for him.
Agree that seeing/helping your kids, family, friends achieve their goals is one of the greatest feelings in life, and not just because of the material rewards they will reap, but because they achieved the goal(s) they went after, and didn’t settle for something less than what they really wanted.
As far as the overall meaning of life, or lack therof, that’s clearly different for all of us, and I’ve found that discovering/coming to terms with whatever that means to you is what really matters.
Participant[quote=bewildering]No, it is not an all-time high.
$525,000 in 2017 dollars = $420,000 in 2005 dollars.
The author of this article would presumably be astounded that houses in La Jolla only cost $30,000 in 1955. Because anyone could afford $30,000.[/quote]
So true. When our family, beginning with our parents, started buying RE in San Diego in the 70’s, many bought in LJ, Sunset Cliffs, and other areas for less than $100K. At that time, I don’t think anyone would have imagined how things would explode to our present day levels.
ParticipantGood points, flu. And the whining is not confined to just one group or part of the country. Can’t tell you how many times in the last few years we’ve heard the CA whiners complaining about how they, and/or their kids can’t afford to stay here, can’t find the jobs they want here, can’t afford to buy homes here, etc. It’s probably only going to get worse, but, as you said. . . not my problem.
ParticipantI’m somewhere in between flu and FIH when it comes to my perspective on the current state of the country. I also think this is a great country and would not want to see it fail.
That said, as flu touched upon, positioning ourselves and our families so we are pretty much “immune” to whatever the future brings seems like a good idea. Even then–there are really no guarantees(except for death and
taxes)–but it’s probably one of the best shots we each have at continuing to live the lives we want to live.ParticipantTo the OP regarding your original post.
Regardless of which path you take regarding schools, your family will love living in either CV or RSF, and your kids will benefit greatly, as all of ours have. Best of luck!
ParticipantYes. We’ve heard about it happening in areas we’ve lived–LJ, CV, RSF–etc. Even though incidents may be less frequent, they do still occur.
ParticipantWe have heard of bullying cases at both private and public schools over the years. There was a case at LJCD a few years ago that went to trial. Sad to see it continuing.
ParticipantLate to post, and glad to see the excellent info already posted.
We raised our kids in CV and RSF, and chose to send them to private schools (although I’d prefer not to comment on which) so that is another option you might consider. They are now out of college and doing well. Otoh, we’ve known many kids who have done extremely well going the public school route.
The stats indicate that less than 50% of recent college grads achieve their desired career goals, so, even though we all try to make the best decisions possible when it comes to our children, clearly, they still face challenges beyond academia.
Participantsdgrrl, I think, from what you have told us, you made a good choice for you and your partner at this point in time, and congratulations on being realistic and living within your budget, instead of extending yourself as so many home buyers do.
You have now dipped your toe into San Diego real estate, and, as time goes on, if you find that your current abode doesn’t meet your needs, you’ll have some leverage to make other choices.
Enjoy!
ParticipantMany in our family have been invested in 92106,07 for many years, and no one we know is planning to sell, regardless of which direction the market goes, so the pricing is not too surprising. Definitely an interesting market to watch.
ParticipantAs your kids grow older, you might want to consider high ranking private high schools (which our kids attended) such as Bishop’s, Francis Parker and LJ Country Day, as well as Canyon Crest which is near the top of the list for public in CA.
ParticipantTwo of our kids went Ivy, one UC, but that was about 10 years ago. We’ve heard it’s definitely more difficult now, even though one niece just graduated from Berkeley, and another is about to graduate from UCLA.
Here’s an interesting article that may shed some light on the topic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/12/californias-higher-education-crisis/418293/
ParticipantDeflation is always a possibility in any housing market, but, although we have seen an increase in foreign funds flowing into real estate in San Diego in recent years, we’re not even close to being as heavily dependent upon them as certain other cities.
That said, if, even to a small degree, the real estate market does continue to thrive, we might be looking at a scenario as outlined in the excerpts from the following article:
What will our housing market look like in 20 years?
Our City San Diego“If you think San Diego’s housing market is strained and pricey now, what will it be like in 20 years?
Yes, feel free to shudder.
No one, of course, can accurately predict that far in advance. There are too many variables at play. But there is one aspect of the current housing market that would seem tough to reverse.
And that’s the ability to build.
For one thing, we have finite developable land, particularly in the city of San Diego. Secondly, a portion of our population appears unwilling to embrace density — at least in their own neighborhoods — which makes it tough on planners and builders to increase supply.
“We’ll be the Bay Area in no time,” said Borre Winckel, president and CEO of the Building Industry Association of San Diego. “We can offer very few product lines for the middle-class buyer.”
San Francisco was once a quirky, counter-cultural city that was home to a bevy of activists, artists and writers. But that city is vanishing because of sky-high housing costs. Now, only the elite can afford to live in the city and, like in Manhattan, low- and middle-income workers are forced to live further afield and make long commutes to their jobs.
San Diego is not far behind. It is already the nation’s fifth most expensive housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only an estimated 25 percent of households can afford the median home price.
Even more troubling, most of the apartment units under construction are higher end, catering to wealthier millennials.
“My lament is that we’re royally screwing the housing opportunity for the middle class and young people,” Winckel said.
San Diego’s population grew by 159,000 people from 2010 to 2014, but the region added only 22,000 housing units in that time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
If that trend continues, experts predict housing prices will continue to rise.
And higher housing prices will force people and businesses to leave, Winckel said.
Middle-class workers with families are already moving to North County, and even into Temecula, where they can afford homes. But the commute is brutal and could get worse. And San Diego does not have mass transit like San Francisco or New York that can move large numbers of people — especially from North County.
When businesses can no longer attract enough employees, they will relocate, Winckel said. That could leave San Diego with a smaller number of businesses that pay higher wages, like in the biotech industry.
Another challenge is that only some building projects are financially workable. For example, smaller wood-frame apartments aren’t profitable because of regulation burdens.
Government regulations add as much as 40 percent to the cost of construction, according to one study that local builders helped fund. That means only pricier housing projects pencil out for developers, Winckel said.
Mostly, it’s larger, steel-frame complexes that are lucrative enough to build. But those projects — mostly high-end condos — tend to demand higher rents or sales prices, which doesn’t help middle-class San Diegans.
San Diego. Affordable no more.”
Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
-
AuthorPosts
