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EconProf
ParticipantBobS
Thanks for the info guys. I just placed an order for SRS at $97. Pray for a RE crash.ParticipantBobS
Thanks for the info guys. I just placed an order for SRS at $97. Pray for a RE crash.ParticipantBobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.ParticipantBobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.ParticipantBobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.ParticipantBobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.ParticipantBobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.ParticipantBobS
Drunkle: Don’t make it so complicated. What position would you take in the next few days if the s**t continues to hit the fan?ParticipantBobS
Drunkle: Don’t make it so complicated. What position would you take in the next few days if the s**t continues to hit the fan?ParticipantBobS
Drunkle: Don’t make it so complicated. What position would you take in the next few days if the s**t continues to hit the fan?ParticipantBobS
Drunkle: Don’t make it so complicated. What position would you take in the next few days if the s**t continues to hit the fan?ParticipantBobS
Drunkle: Don’t make it so complicated. What position would you take in the next few days if the s**t continues to hit the fan?ParticipantBobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss.ParticipantBobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss. -
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