[EconProf]

Conjectures about foreign money buying depressed U.S. real estate looked plausible until about a month ago. The dollar has since rallied, and oil has tumbled–a major factor that was eroding the dollar. There are now some real signs out there that oil & other commodities are headed down. Gold, a major dollar bugaboo, has dropped a full 10%.
A lot of dollar-weakening grenades could still go off, but right now the dollar is strengthening.

[EconProf]

Conjectures about foreign money buying depressed U.S. real estate looked plausible until about a month ago. The dollar has since rallied, and oil has tumbled–a major factor that was eroding the dollar. There are now some real signs out there that oil & other commodities are headed down. Gold, a major dollar bugaboo, has dropped a full 10%.
A lot of dollar-weakening grenades could still go off, but right now the dollar is strengthening.

[EconProf]

Conjectures about foreign money buying depressed U.S. real estate looked plausible until about a month ago. The dollar has since rallied, and oil has tumbled–a major factor that was eroding the dollar. There are now some real signs out there that oil & other commodities are headed down. Gold, a major dollar bugaboo, has dropped a full 10%.
A lot of dollar-weakening grenades could still go off, but right now the dollar is strengthening.

[EconProf]

Conjectures about foreign money buying depressed U.S. real estate looked plausible until about a month ago. The dollar has since rallied, and oil has tumbled–a major factor that was eroding the dollar. There are now some real signs out there that oil & other commodities are headed down. Gold, a major dollar bugaboo, has dropped a full 10%.
A lot of dollar-weakening grenades could still go off, but right now the dollar is strengthening.

[EconProf]

Conjectures about foreign money buying depressed U.S. real estate looked plausible until about a month ago. The dollar has since rallied, and oil has tumbled–a major factor that was eroding the dollar. There are now some real signs out there that oil & other commodities are headed down. Gold, a major dollar bugaboo, has dropped a full 10%.
A lot of dollar-weakening grenades could still go off, but right now the dollar is strengthening.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: Yes, been to MT, Missoula specifically, a great university town, cosmpolitan, award winning downtown, fabulous, inexpensive homes, well-educated and hard-working citizenry. Of course, you could pick a mining town, like Butte, and get another result. San Diego has, on average, a miserable school system. Of course, there are some way above average schools, like in Poway, Scripps, wealthy enclaves here and there. But on average, ours lag in national ratings and the trend is downward. The economically improving states, like Montana, are probably already ahead of us, on average. Piggs: lets see some national ratings to settle this.
As to construction work force, my experience tells me otherwise. I’ve met crew chiefs who had the following preferences: First, workers from the midwest and south. Second choice: Mexican. Third choice: native-born Californians. Mountain state workers did not enter the discussion, but maybe they are all gainfully employed in their home state. OK, that should generate some opinions!
But my main point is that, investing, we ought to look at long term demographic and economic trends, and taxation levels. They largely explain why, for example, Utah and Idaho are doing relatively well, and Michigan and Ohio are doing so poorly. The trends for CA are not good.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: Yes, been to MT, Missoula specifically, a great university town, cosmpolitan, award winning downtown, fabulous, inexpensive homes, well-educated and hard-working citizenry. Of course, you could pick a mining town, like Butte, and get another result. San Diego has, on average, a miserable school system. Of course, there are some way above average schools, like in Poway, Scripps, wealthy enclaves here and there. But on average, ours lag in national ratings and the trend is downward. The economically improving states, like Montana, are probably already ahead of us, on average. Piggs: lets see some national ratings to settle this.
As to construction work force, my experience tells me otherwise. I’ve met crew chiefs who had the following preferences: First, workers from the midwest and south. Second choice: Mexican. Third choice: native-born Californians. Mountain state workers did not enter the discussion, but maybe they are all gainfully employed in their home state. OK, that should generate some opinions!
But my main point is that, investing, we ought to look at long term demographic and economic trends, and taxation levels. They largely explain why, for example, Utah and Idaho are doing relatively well, and Michigan and Ohio are doing so poorly. The trends for CA are not good.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: Yes, been to MT, Missoula specifically, a great university town, cosmpolitan, award winning downtown, fabulous, inexpensive homes, well-educated and hard-working citizenry. Of course, you could pick a mining town, like Butte, and get another result. San Diego has, on average, a miserable school system. Of course, there are some way above average schools, like in Poway, Scripps, wealthy enclaves here and there. But on average, ours lag in national ratings and the trend is downward. The economically improving states, like Montana, are probably already ahead of us, on average. Piggs: lets see some national ratings to settle this.
As to construction work force, my experience tells me otherwise. I’ve met crew chiefs who had the following preferences: First, workers from the midwest and south. Second choice: Mexican. Third choice: native-born Californians. Mountain state workers did not enter the discussion, but maybe they are all gainfully employed in their home state. OK, that should generate some opinions!
But my main point is that, investing, we ought to look at long term demographic and economic trends, and taxation levels. They largely explain why, for example, Utah and Idaho are doing relatively well, and Michigan and Ohio are doing so poorly. The trends for CA are not good.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: Yes, been to MT, Missoula specifically, a great university town, cosmpolitan, award winning downtown, fabulous, inexpensive homes, well-educated and hard-working citizenry. Of course, you could pick a mining town, like Butte, and get another result. San Diego has, on average, a miserable school system. Of course, there are some way above average schools, like in Poway, Scripps, wealthy enclaves here and there. But on average, ours lag in national ratings and the trend is downward. The economically improving states, like Montana, are probably already ahead of us, on average. Piggs: lets see some national ratings to settle this.
As to construction work force, my experience tells me otherwise. I’ve met crew chiefs who had the following preferences: First, workers from the midwest and south. Second choice: Mexican. Third choice: native-born Californians. Mountain state workers did not enter the discussion, but maybe they are all gainfully employed in their home state. OK, that should generate some opinions!
But my main point is that, investing, we ought to look at long term demographic and economic trends, and taxation levels. They largely explain why, for example, Utah and Idaho are doing relatively well, and Michigan and Ohio are doing so poorly. The trends for CA are not good.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: Yes, been to MT, Missoula specifically, a great university town, cosmpolitan, award winning downtown, fabulous, inexpensive homes, well-educated and hard-working citizenry. Of course, you could pick a mining town, like Butte, and get another result. San Diego has, on average, a miserable school system. Of course, there are some way above average schools, like in Poway, Scripps, wealthy enclaves here and there. But on average, ours lag in national ratings and the trend is downward. The economically improving states, like Montana, are probably already ahead of us, on average. Piggs: lets see some national ratings to settle this.
As to construction work force, my experience tells me otherwise. I’ve met crew chiefs who had the following preferences: First, workers from the midwest and south. Second choice: Mexican. Third choice: native-born Californians. Mountain state workers did not enter the discussion, but maybe they are all gainfully employed in their home state. OK, that should generate some opinions!
But my main point is that, investing, we ought to look at long term demographic and economic trends, and taxation levels. They largely explain why, for example, Utah and Idaho are doing relatively well, and Michigan and Ohio are doing so poorly. The trends for CA are not good.

[EconProf]

Individuals have different priorities and values, of course, and this is dictating their choice of ideal city or state to live in, as revealed in this thread. If you already live in San Diego, that choice probably reflects your preferences.
I suggest that an area’s economic health, demographic trends, and quality of life factors largely drive real estate prices, and that San Diego has fallen considerably. Remember, a few years ago Forbes ranked San Diego as the best city in the country for, I believe, business start-ups and quality of life for college graduates. Now we are not even in the top ten.
Montana and Wyoming are way different from San Diego, and I suspect their citizens are just as disdainful of our quality of life characteristics as some of us are of theirs. Different strokes, etc.
Back to data: CA has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation, and San Diego’s is rising rapidly of late, and it is not just real estate related. Wyoming’s is 2.6%, lowest in the nation. Montana’s is 3.8%. Both are energy and agriculture-rich, so their economic future is assured.
Both states have growing populations–the famous U-Haul price ratio reflects this.
Most worrisome for CA is the demographic trends, as we lose middle-class families and high-earning taxpayers to other states, and import low-earning, government-dependent citizens and non-citizens, supplemented by the high birth rate of our existing poor people.
Yes, San Diego will always have its weather and other attractions. But some long-run demographic and economic trends have really turned against us. Real estate prices and rents in the future will reflect this.

[EconProf]

Individuals have different priorities and values, of course, and this is dictating their choice of ideal city or state to live in, as revealed in this thread. If you already live in San Diego, that choice probably reflects your preferences.
I suggest that an area’s economic health, demographic trends, and quality of life factors largely drive real estate prices, and that San Diego has fallen considerably. Remember, a few years ago Forbes ranked San Diego as the best city in the country for, I believe, business start-ups and quality of life for college graduates. Now we are not even in the top ten.
Montana and Wyoming are way different from San Diego, and I suspect their citizens are just as disdainful of our quality of life characteristics as some of us are of theirs. Different strokes, etc.
Back to data: CA has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation, and San Diego’s is rising rapidly of late, and it is not just real estate related. Wyoming’s is 2.6%, lowest in the nation. Montana’s is 3.8%. Both are energy and agriculture-rich, so their economic future is assured.
Both states have growing populations–the famous U-Haul price ratio reflects this.
Most worrisome for CA is the demographic trends, as we lose middle-class families and high-earning taxpayers to other states, and import low-earning, government-dependent citizens and non-citizens, supplemented by the high birth rate of our existing poor people.
Yes, San Diego will always have its weather and other attractions. But some long-run demographic and economic trends have really turned against us. Real estate prices and rents in the future will reflect this.

[EconProf]

Individuals have different priorities and values, of course, and this is dictating their choice of ideal city or state to live in, as revealed in this thread. If you already live in San Diego, that choice probably reflects your preferences.
I suggest that an area’s economic health, demographic trends, and quality of life factors largely drive real estate prices, and that San Diego has fallen considerably. Remember, a few years ago Forbes ranked San Diego as the best city in the country for, I believe, business start-ups and quality of life for college graduates. Now we are not even in the top ten.
Montana and Wyoming are way different from San Diego, and I suspect their citizens are just as disdainful of our quality of life characteristics as some of us are of theirs. Different strokes, etc.
Back to data: CA has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation, and San Diego’s is rising rapidly of late, and it is not just real estate related. Wyoming’s is 2.6%, lowest in the nation. Montana’s is 3.8%. Both are energy and agriculture-rich, so their economic future is assured.
Both states have growing populations–the famous U-Haul price ratio reflects this.
Most worrisome for CA is the demographic trends, as we lose middle-class families and high-earning taxpayers to other states, and import low-earning, government-dependent citizens and non-citizens, supplemented by the high birth rate of our existing poor people.
Yes, San Diego will always have its weather and other attractions. But some long-run demographic and economic trends have really turned against us. Real estate prices and rents in the future will reflect this.

[EconProf]

Individuals have different priorities and values, of course, and this is dictating their choice of ideal city or state to live in, as revealed in this thread. If you already live in San Diego, that choice probably reflects your preferences.
I suggest that an area’s economic health, demographic trends, and quality of life factors largely drive real estate prices, and that San Diego has fallen considerably. Remember, a few years ago Forbes ranked San Diego as the best city in the country for, I believe, business start-ups and quality of life for college graduates. Now we are not even in the top ten.
Montana and Wyoming are way different from San Diego, and I suspect their citizens are just as disdainful of our quality of life characteristics as some of us are of theirs. Different strokes, etc.
Back to data: CA has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation, and San Diego’s is rising rapidly of late, and it is not just real estate related. Wyoming’s is 2.6%, lowest in the nation. Montana’s is 3.8%. Both are energy and agriculture-rich, so their economic future is assured.
Both states have growing populations–the famous U-Haul price ratio reflects this.
Most worrisome for CA is the demographic trends, as we lose middle-class families and high-earning taxpayers to other states, and import low-earning, government-dependent citizens and non-citizens, supplemented by the high birth rate of our existing poor people.
Yes, San Diego will always have its weather and other attractions. But some long-run demographic and economic trends have really turned against us. Real estate prices and rents in the future will reflect this.

[EconProf]

Individuals have different priorities and values, of course, and this is dictating their choice of ideal city or state to live in, as revealed in this thread. If you already live in San Diego, that choice probably reflects your preferences.
I suggest that an area’s economic health, demographic trends, and quality of life factors largely drive real estate prices, and that San Diego has fallen considerably. Remember, a few years ago Forbes ranked San Diego as the best city in the country for, I believe, business start-ups and quality of life for college graduates. Now we are not even in the top ten.
Montana and Wyoming are way different from San Diego, and I suspect their citizens are just as disdainful of our quality of life characteristics as some of us are of theirs. Different strokes, etc.
Back to data: CA has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation, and San Diego’s is rising rapidly of late, and it is not just real estate related. Wyoming’s is 2.6%, lowest in the nation. Montana’s is 3.8%. Both are energy and agriculture-rich, so their economic future is assured.
Both states have growing populations–the famous U-Haul price ratio reflects this.
Most worrisome for CA is the demographic trends, as we lose middle-class families and high-earning taxpayers to other states, and import low-earning, government-dependent citizens and non-citizens, supplemented by the high birth rate of our existing poor people.
Yes, San Diego will always have its weather and other attractions. But some long-run demographic and economic trends have really turned against us. Real estate prices and rents in the future will reflect this.

[Author]

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