[EconProf]

I too long bought into the wall street advice to hold for the long term–rates of return were (until recently) proven to be 9 – 11% on average if you encompass a half century or so into your tracking.
However that advice may not be fully up to date any more. If it doesn’t include the roughly 45% decline from one year ago, then those figures are too high.
In addition, the averages were pulled up by the remarkable, and abnormal, stock market growth of the 80s and 90s, when the averages went up something like eight-fold, trough to peak.
With investors now about even with 10 years ago, one has to ask if America is entering a new slow growth era. We are hobbled by a growing deficit at all levels of government, a dollar only temporarily stronger, a deflationary era not unlike the 1930s, and an incoming administration that favors much more regulation and higher taxes.
It is hard to take a buy and hold position with these trends in place.

[EconProf]

I too long bought into the wall street advice to hold for the long term–rates of return were (until recently) proven to be 9 – 11% on average if you encompass a half century or so into your tracking.
However that advice may not be fully up to date any more. If it doesn’t include the roughly 45% decline from one year ago, then those figures are too high.
In addition, the averages were pulled up by the remarkable, and abnormal, stock market growth of the 80s and 90s, when the averages went up something like eight-fold, trough to peak.
With investors now about even with 10 years ago, one has to ask if America is entering a new slow growth era. We are hobbled by a growing deficit at all levels of government, a dollar only temporarily stronger, a deflationary era not unlike the 1930s, and an incoming administration that favors much more regulation and higher taxes.
It is hard to take a buy and hold position with these trends in place.

[EconProf]

I too long bought into the wall street advice to hold for the long term–rates of return were (until recently) proven to be 9 – 11% on average if you encompass a half century or so into your tracking.
However that advice may not be fully up to date any more. If it doesn’t include the roughly 45% decline from one year ago, then those figures are too high.
In addition, the averages were pulled up by the remarkable, and abnormal, stock market growth of the 80s and 90s, when the averages went up something like eight-fold, trough to peak.
With investors now about even with 10 years ago, one has to ask if America is entering a new slow growth era. We are hobbled by a growing deficit at all levels of government, a dollar only temporarily stronger, a deflationary era not unlike the 1930s, and an incoming administration that favors much more regulation and higher taxes.
It is hard to take a buy and hold position with these trends in place.

[EconProf]

I too long bought into the wall street advice to hold for the long term–rates of return were (until recently) proven to be 9 – 11% on average if you encompass a half century or so into your tracking.
However that advice may not be fully up to date any more. If it doesn’t include the roughly 45% decline from one year ago, then those figures are too high.
In addition, the averages were pulled up by the remarkable, and abnormal, stock market growth of the 80s and 90s, when the averages went up something like eight-fold, trough to peak.
With investors now about even with 10 years ago, one has to ask if America is entering a new slow growth era. We are hobbled by a growing deficit at all levels of government, a dollar only temporarily stronger, a deflationary era not unlike the 1930s, and an incoming administration that favors much more regulation and higher taxes.
It is hard to take a buy and hold position with these trends in place.

[EconProf]

Congrats to the duuude on a prescient call.
And yes, unemployment rates regularly peak at the end of recessions, or even after the recovery begins.
Given the severity of this recession which we are probably only halfway through, the housing decline predictions must all be adjusted to deeper and longer.

[EconProf]

Congrats to the duuude on a prescient call.
And yes, unemployment rates regularly peak at the end of recessions, or even after the recovery begins.
Given the severity of this recession which we are probably only halfway through, the housing decline predictions must all be adjusted to deeper and longer.

[EconProf]

Congrats to the duuude on a prescient call.
And yes, unemployment rates regularly peak at the end of recessions, or even after the recovery begins.
Given the severity of this recession which we are probably only halfway through, the housing decline predictions must all be adjusted to deeper and longer.

[EconProf]

Congrats to the duuude on a prescient call.
And yes, unemployment rates regularly peak at the end of recessions, or even after the recovery begins.
Given the severity of this recession which we are probably only halfway through, the housing decline predictions must all be adjusted to deeper and longer.

[EconProf]

Congrats to the duuude on a prescient call.
And yes, unemployment rates regularly peak at the end of recessions, or even after the recovery begins.
Given the severity of this recession which we are probably only halfway through, the housing decline predictions must all be adjusted to deeper and longer.

[EconProf]

I live in Santaluz and bicycle all over the area. The big factor affecting some house prices here, and especially this one, is proximity to Del Sur. It is destined to be 4 lanes eventually, which will make it a lot faster and noisier. Houses (and still undeveloped lots) that are near the highway have taken an appropriate hit.
Moral of the story–before buying look closely at future uses of nearby land.

[EconProf]

I live in Santaluz and bicycle all over the area. The big factor affecting some house prices here, and especially this one, is proximity to Del Sur. It is destined to be 4 lanes eventually, which will make it a lot faster and noisier. Houses (and still undeveloped lots) that are near the highway have taken an appropriate hit.
Moral of the story–before buying look closely at future uses of nearby land.

[EconProf]

I live in Santaluz and bicycle all over the area. The big factor affecting some house prices here, and especially this one, is proximity to Del Sur. It is destined to be 4 lanes eventually, which will make it a lot faster and noisier. Houses (and still undeveloped lots) that are near the highway have taken an appropriate hit.
Moral of the story–before buying look closely at future uses of nearby land.

[EconProf]

I live in Santaluz and bicycle all over the area. The big factor affecting some house prices here, and especially this one, is proximity to Del Sur. It is destined to be 4 lanes eventually, which will make it a lot faster and noisier. Houses (and still undeveloped lots) that are near the highway have taken an appropriate hit.
Moral of the story–before buying look closely at future uses of nearby land.

[EconProf]

I live in Santaluz and bicycle all over the area. The big factor affecting some house prices here, and especially this one, is proximity to Del Sur. It is destined to be 4 lanes eventually, which will make it a lot faster and noisier. Houses (and still undeveloped lots) that are near the highway have taken an appropriate hit.
Moral of the story–before buying look closely at future uses of nearby land.

[EconProf]

Bump

[Author]

Posts