Recession Started Dec. 2007 – as predicted

[sdduuuude]

I submit two links below and nominate myself for “best call ever.” This prediction was made Sept 8, 2006:

[quote=sdduuuude]Just for the record, I think there is a recession coming. I don’t know how we could possibly avoid it.

I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early, given the painfully slow speed at which this bubble is deflating. Not only does housing have to come down alot further, but the effects of that have to move throughout the economy. I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008, possibly highlighted by a very nasty 2007 holiday retail season.
[/quote]

http://piggington.com/95_of_us_economists_missed_the_last_recession_after_it_had_alrea#comment-12757

[quote=yahoo]The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee announced on Monday.
[/quote]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081201/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_recession_1

I got the date right, but it looks like the nasty holiday season is gonna be 2008, not 2007.

Roubini and the like say this is going to be an 18 or 24 month recession. That means some chance of starting to recover this Summer.

[sdrealtor]

Good call! I was just watching the talking heads on CNN and Bloomberg this morning discussing this very thing.

[sdrealtor]

Good call! I was just watching the talking heads on CNN and Bloomberg this morning discussing this very thing.

[sdrealtor]

Good call! I was just watching the talking heads on CNN and Bloomberg this morning discussing this very thing.

[sdrealtor]

Good call! I was just watching the talking heads on CNN and Bloomberg this morning discussing this very thing.

[sdrealtor]

Good call! I was just watching the talking heads on CNN and Bloomberg this morning discussing this very thing.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks.

Do you expect the recession to end by 2Q 2009 or later ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks.

Do you expect the recession to end by 2Q 2009 or later ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks.

Do you expect the recession to end by 2Q 2009 or later ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks.

Do you expect the recession to end by 2Q 2009 or later ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks.

Do you expect the recession to end by 2Q 2009 or later ?

[sdduuuude]

When making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”

Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.

I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.

If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.

I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.

The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.

It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.

[sdduuuude]

When making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”

Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.

I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.

If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.

I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.

The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.

It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.

[sdduuuude]

When making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”

Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.

I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.

If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.

I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.

The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.

It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.

[sdduuuude]

When making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”

Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.

I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.

If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.

I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.

The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.

It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.

[Author]

Posts