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EconProf
Participantsdr: 10% drop in prices here in one month?
Sorry, not buying it. Then again, maybe you are cherry-picking the time period 🙂
ParticipantMore stats (sorry to beat this subject to death):
What state(s) had the worst and best employment numbers from January, 2019 to May, 2024 (most recent stats available) according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
Worst: CA -1%
Best: UT & AZ, tied at +12.2% (3rd place is Idaho at 11%)
Participantsdr: OK, since you revived this topic….you are correct, summers here are hot.
But not as hot as Phoenix and Las Vegas, where people are fleeing big time from CA, including from San Diego.
Elevation matters, and we are above 2,000 ft. When we want to cool off, we can drive 30 minutes to the even cooler Zion National Park.
Participantsdr: I have never seen a scorpion here in St. George.
But we do have a plague of locusts in late springtime/early summer. They are red, and literally can make some roads slippery as cars run over them. They hurt the crops of the early Mormon farmers in the long-ago frontier days.
ParticipantThanks, sdr, for the info ranking Utah first place among states by some metrics. If you ever get up here for golf, let’s meet up…smoke a peace pipe together.
Speaking of which, actor Kevin Costner has shot several westerns here, and is building a film studio near our airport. He is filming now, and advertising for extras (minimum wage, 12-hour days). I think I’ll pass. On the other hand, I could be the evil landlord, twirling my fake moustache as I evict someone.
Participantsdr & others: I’ve tried to let this thread die a natural death but you keep reviving it. It appears I must be a threat to your livelihood.
Contrary to your statements, I did not leave SD unappreciative of the amenities and livelihood it gave me in abundance. The recent (and increasing) exodus to other states from CA is prompted by differences in cost of living, government policies (esp. taxes and utility costs), and lifestyle choices.
Incidentally, while you often cite RE differences between my St. George/Washington City area vs. San Diego, I’d remind you that CA refugees are fleeing to all neighboring states, plus Florida. Let’s think beyond St. George vs. San Diego.
Regarding your “proof” that St. George is not doing well RE-wise, your data is not accurate. A major local realtor said our average price is up 8% over the past year and there are 13% more “pending” sales. My four rental properties here never have turnover, and I raise the rent annually (as promised when they begin).
Hollywood has discovered us, as Kevin Kostner is in love with the area, and will be building a 120,000 S/F “Territory Studio” near our airport, since he has made & starred in movies here of late.
Speaking of the airport, the work-from-home trend has many people keeping their job in San Diego and L.A. and flying to their big-city job a few times a month. They are here for the lifestyle and cost of living.
Finally, you seem to take pride in the high and rising cost of housing in San Diego, and especially your rarefied neighborhood by UCSD and the ocean. Good for you and the rich people around you, but I bet the average Piggington reader does not take comfort from this.
Our lower cost of housing is largely due to abundant land, cheaper construction costs, decent government, etc. Your own figures show that a $950,000 ticky-tack 50-year old Mira Mesa house will get you a new 3000 SF mansion with forever views in St. George suggests that current trends will continue.
Demographics is….
ParticipantQuote from FlashReport.org:
SDUT:
“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”
Gosh, I wonder why.
ParticipantYep. HUD and US Census Bureau are politically motivated data sources.
ParticipantZero Hedge clearly leans right, but its followers understand that and can presumably separate the wheat from the chaff. For example, what part of the HUD data that I quoted about housing costs prompting people to move toward some areas and away from others is misleading? Is it not relevant to our discussion topic?
The main message of Zero Hedge is that our insane deficit spending now propping up the economy is a ticking time bomb. It is like paying interest on current credit cards by taking out more credit cards. This will blow up in our face and our children will rightfully blame us for it.
The evidence is piling up that people and businesses are “voting with their feet”, and San Diego’s beauty, beaches, and weather is not stopping its current population decline, as per US Census data.
Participant“…greatest place in the country…” Your quote. Yeah, there’s some real hard data.
Here’s some real data to chew on in today’s news from a source called Credit News (via a neat site called Zero Hedge).
It names ” “The Best and Worst Metro Areas for 1st Time Buyers in 2024”. Austin is #2, San Antonio is #3 among the best.
All 5 worst are in CA, ranked as follows: Riverside- San Bernardino-Ontario, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, LA-Long Beach-Anaheim, San Diego-Carlsbad, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara.
So relax, sdr. I’m sure all these people moving from the second group of metro areas will soon learn the folly of their ways and move back to the first group of cities.
Demographics is….
Participantsdr: you are right and I am wrong. All the people and companies that moved to AZ, Utah, Texas, Nevada, etc. will surely realize the folly of their decision and soon move back to California. I give up and surrender to your wisdom.
Demographics is….
Goodbye and good luck.
Participantsdr: Thanks for making my case.
That kind of money will get you a 50-year old tiny Mira Mesa tract home. You are enticing Piggs to move here. Thanks.
Also, you said no good employment here. Our unemployment rate is 2.8%…”Now Hiring” signs everywhere. No homelessness to speak of. 8 Thai restaurants for you to pick from.
Among the states losing population (NY, IL, Lousy-anna, etc.), CA leads nation in PERCENTAGE terms .
Demographics is destiny.
Participantsdr: I’ve given you data, but you call them “imaginary studies”, so here’s some official statistics you can easily verify via Google:
Monthly electricity costs by state, October
CA: $239.68
FL: 138.68
ID: 108.99
TX: 131.95
AZ: 130.24
Water and sewer rates are similarly far worse in San Diego than the comparable states. Gas prices there down? News flash, they are lower everywhere lately, but still highest in CA. Public schools there still rank poorly based on national test scores, yet per-pupil spending among the highest.
You live in a gilded neighborhood of San Diego, and good for you. But it is not representative of greater San Diego which is losing population as per US Census Bureau to the states listed above.
Demographics is destiny.
Participantsdr: nice dodge. You can’t face the fact that Californians (and San Diegans) are leaving for a long list of reasons, despite your great weather. BTW, the great SD weather also makes San Diego a great draw to your homeless population.
And yes, it is documented those leaving are on average higher income people. The very factors you mention, like land costs, combined with utility costs, expensive and poor schools, etc. are prompting the exodus. Regarding the latter, a study just compared educational results by state in the return to post-covid school test scores. Because CA locked down for so long, they fared worse in national test scores than Mississippi. So the poor whites and poor blacks of the deep south outperformed CA students (UT scored 3rd in the nation).
And the trend seems to be accelerating as more people move based on the lower cost of living. Want to escape the nearly highest state income taxes in the nation? Move to income-tax free Nevada, Florida, or Texas, or low-taxed AZ or UT. You’ll get twice the house for half as much money. You are correct to point out they are building like crazy here and people are flooding in. When we meet new people here, we always ask “Where are you from?” Usually it is coastal California.
Have fun paying for full medical care for all illegals, and for huge reparations for Blacks (who will start moving to CA in droves if reparations become law). As your favorite politician (I’m guessing) might say “C’mon man”.
Cheers,
EconProf
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