[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Regardless, the fact that it (and others like it) is sitting is reflective of pricing conditions vs last year. Is your repetition of “sure if you say so” indicative of drain bramage or just lack of creativity?

Maybe you should spend some time hanging out with people not just like you to improve your creative prospects.[/quote]

Whatever floats your boat, chief. I’m enjoy wasting my time arguing with a brick, because I’m a brick too.

You’re right, I should spend more time with more creative and diverse people who are worldly and refined…Why do you think I’m spending so much time talking to you…on this blog?

So far, I learned a lot of what it takes to have a lot of pent up hate … I’ve also learned a lot about New Jersey 🙂

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I’m posting numbers, you’re quacking “sure if you say so” repeatedly like an 4 year old in need of sleep. Got any more persuasive arguments?

I’m saying that there seem to be a number that DIDN’T change hands and gave one example. What makes $200k the right price vs $140k, BTW? $240,000 sure wasn’t right with the rent you quoted. That would represent about a 4% return, which is good for parts of Manhattan, not for a secondary part of San Diego.[/quote]

Sure, if you say so. Seems to me, the person isn’t in a hurry to sell, otherwise it would have been a short or REO a long time ago.

$200k price isn’t “right or wrong”. It’s what the market commands. Keeping trying to rationalize it…If it floats your boat.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Not gonna work unless Dodd-Frank is changed, and that’s not going away any time soon. Debt-to-income is basically set in stone. Even the move to 3% down payments is a bit of a sham, since (a) they existed before 2013 anyway, and (b) down payment is limited by debt-to-income and appraisal for most people.

Interesting fact: 6927 Amherst #16 sold for $240,000 in late 2014. The unit I posted is sitting at $237,000 for much longer. They might be lucky to get $200,000 or $220,000. Seems that there might be a bit less demand for any junk that comes onto the market this year vs last. Funny, that.

There was a brief period in 2013-2014 where one could find a buyer for any turd that was thrown onto the market at an insane price. This period has passed and the herd has stopped stampeding.[/quote]

Sure. If you say so. In that case. I dont see investors needing to sell( at a discount). I sure wasn’t counting on appreciation this quickly. As far as I am concerned. It is icing ont the cake. For practical purposes these condos have already changed hands from the weaker hands to the strong. That happened when these were in the $140k range.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I’m not sure if we’re in the $200k range for those condos. Note that this unit is NOT selling at $237k or anything close to it.[/quote]

We are… Some of them that has closed in the $200k range. This one, again, is a POS and probably overpriced… Even if not, like I said. Most of these are investors held (probably). So if they were bought recently, they were purchased most likely with cash. Because owner occupancy in these areas most likely were <50% making traditional financing for investors not an option. Unless you were folks that cashed out refinanced another rental properties that were more owner occupied elsewhere to pay for ones here....

You can count on the banks to relax lending standards again. Because banks make more money off of subprime borrowers than they do off of me. And when they do that, that plays much more at the low end versus the high(er) end, imho.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]You yourself seem to be predicting a slow decline …

And the decline this time it seems will take a lot longer since most of the ones that were sketchly financed last time aren’t even active right now.

[/quote]

In this particular hood. I think there will be a floor, simply because of the close proximity to SDSU. And rent is around $1400/month give and take $100/month. Maybe not this POS you picked, but others better that costed much less …

Also, I’m expecting the banks to relax lending standards in the future, so instead of buyers only being investors for things like this that typically buy with all cash (and hence not really affected by interest rate fluctuations imho), there will be people who right now can’t qualify to own will be able to. The fact that we are in the $200k ranges for these POS condos without the relaxed lending standards and less than stellar buyers is already surprising enough for me. I would have thought prices in this area would have stayed depressed much longer. At $200k, cash flowing them is already going to be slightly challenging.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I do say so. Here’s one example of what I’m talking about as far as lower-end condos still (not) selling below their 2000s peak…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140052722-6927_Amherst_3_San_Diego_CA_92115

Last sale, $308k in 2005. On market over 6 months for $237k.

I’m not looking for 60% off. I’m looking for 20-30% off property in blue-collar areas that I can rent without too much difficults.[/quote]

And what makes you think you’ll get an additional 40-50% off this point on?

No one is disagreeing with you that prices in some places won’t return back to peak. But you seem to be of the notion that these places are going to crater another 40-50% once interest rates go up. Ain’t gonna happen.

The bottom for these places were in the $120k-140 range BTW….Also, being the close proximity to sdsu…rents for $1300-1400/month….Well, this won’t probably won’t because it’s a piece of shit…There are much nicer places that are larger and costed less.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Looking at lower-end condo prices, I’ve seen quite a few that sold for $50k in the mid 80s and went for half that in the early 90s. So at least in some segments, there was a drop from the 80s through the 90s as well.[/quote]

Sure…If you say so.

You aren’t going to get you 60+% off beach front property in SoCal sub $500k. Ain’t gonna happen. Keep dreaming.

[Coronita]

[quote=joec]My guess is they make the bulk of the extra money in these upgrades…

I’ve seen most people just buy closer to the bottom list price without many upgrades and just live with the cheap stuff, then after a few years, replace it.

They don’t give you any credit if you don’t so you might as well use the cheap carpet or what not for a few and upgrade in 5.

The things dealing with extra rooms, baths, etc…are probably worth not having to deal with changing the floor plan though so those are probably worth the upgrade prices.

With young kids, you also are glad to see the carpet get all messed up and imagine when you will replace all of it when they’re more grown up.[/quote]

…Or your old carpet in your new home ends up being your new carpet in your rental properties…. I’m kidding….

One of these days, I hope to buy a new construction… Getting kinda slim in my neck of woods….

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Fact is, you sarcastic little snit, starting to see more short sales list at the lower end. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

We’re talking about properties that are still 30% below what they borrowed. Read about what’s going on in NJ. Distress can be delayed, but eventually the sales will move forward.[/quote]

I’ll have to take your word for it in what happens in NJ. I don’t care about what happens in NJ. I only care about what happens in CA and maybe Washington or Oregon. I have no desire to be in NJ or invest there.

So, if you say so, it must be true in NJ.

I like my tiny little island of non-diversity. Like I said, diversity is overrated.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=spdrun]They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.[/quote]
Prove it. I’m sick and tire of hearing about this shadow inventory. Been hearing about it for almost 10 years. When are they coming and how many? Would it actually affect market price?[/quote]

At least in SoCal and Bay Area….
(crickets chirping…)

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.[/quote]

Sure. If you say so.

[Coronita]

[quote=rockingtime]Or the people saying: Buy now or be priced out for ever :-)[/quote]

True. Too. But I think for folks that didn’t buy or didn’t buy what they really wanted. They are for practical purposes priced out right now. And the decline this time it seems will take a lot longer since most of the ones that were sketchly financed last time aren’t even active right now.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]No one knows exactly when, but traders jumping from windows is a pretty good indication :)[/quote]

Somehow I think that would actually make you happy. Though I would say I didn’t hear many during the past two crashes.

[Coronita]

[quote=rockingtime]Stock market n real estate is cyclical for sure
Now a days boom n bust cycles are shortened a lot

Social real estate would come down for sure ..
Patience would be rewarded.[/quote]

Sure. Because all of you can time things perfectly. And know exactly when to sell and buy in both the stock and re markets. And do so in such a way without missing out in the run up in both the stock and re markets over the past few years. Gotcha

[Coronita]

[quote=ocrenter][quote=CA renter][quote=AN]Too bad you can’t order the base house w/out flooring and kitchen so you don’t waste money tearing it out.[/quote]

I’ve often wondered this. Is it because you can’t get financing if the house isn’t complete?[/quote]

Yes, that’s the reason.

Out financing guy “looked the other way” and allowed the second floor to stay bare while we used our flooring allowance on linoleum on the first floor. The linoleum then served as the base for our travertine later on.[/quote]

Interesting…I often wondered if it’s possible to opt out of the builder’s options in kitchen and flooring and just put in what you want because it seemed like the builder’s markup was pretty big for upgrades and it didn’t make sense to me to put stuff in and then take them out again.

So did you have to put in a kitchen cabinet, counter via the builder, or were you able to get around that too?

[Author]

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