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CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Throw darts at the card.[/quote]
That would be equivalent of having two random processes pick the same 6 numbers twice.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=cvmom][quote=flu]I think my days of trying to individually stock pick is over. What I have done is simply take my $3000/month that I use to pay towards a mortgage and impound account and now do a direct deposit into my vanguard account, where it gets auto invested into 5 vanguard index funds covering the total stock market, total international stock market, a tax exempt bond fund, and a money market fund.
That, and I make sure to max out my employee stock purchase and plan on selling immediately to get that 20% gain.[/quote]
Scary. This is almost exactly what I do, practically word for word![/quote]
I’ve given up trying to predict the markets. Looking at how my passive portion of my investments performed versus active investment in the stock market (both trying to time the long and short) it was clear that my passive investments performed better over the years, simply because of consistently investing small chunks every month, both when its low and high.
Also, you can’t beat a 20% guaranteed return from.an employers espp.
My bigger problem is the much bigger tax bill I will have now that I can no longer write off a mortgage interest deduction.
That tax bill from the w2 paycheck is not going to be pretty. Fortunately I won’t have any rsus vesting for some time.
Alsoy writeoffs from rentals is getting smaller too. No mortgage interedt deduction on most of them.
Oh well. First world problems..heh heh.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=flu][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=flu]
So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren’t you basically saying: what’s the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?
[/quote]No, it makes no difference if you pick the numbers or a random number generator picks the numbers for you. In both cases the only issue is that the numbers on your ticket match the numbers picked at the drawing. Just because the computer picked the numbers for you it’s no different then if you rolled dice, or consulted your astrological chart.
Btw… if it was a case of what are the odds that the same six numbers are picked twice by two independent random events that wouldn’t double your odds. You would multiply them. so 1:292.2 million times 1:292.2 million so around 1:85.3 billion.[/quote]
yeah sorry about that brain fart. It was late at night. I meant multiply them together, but then i wrote double and was too lazy to check my work and just did a times 2.[/quote]
So if I were to play, my numbers would be 1,2,3,4,5,6
CoronitaParticipant[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=flu]
So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren’t you basically saying: what’s the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?
[/quote]No, it makes no difference if you pick the numbers or a random number generator picks the numbers for you. In both cases the only issue is that the numbers on your ticket match the numbers picked at the drawing. Just because the computer picked the numbers for you it’s no different then if you rolled dice, or consulted your astrological chart.
Btw… if it was a case of what are the odds that the same six numbers are picked twice by two independent random events that wouldn’t double your odds. You would multiply them. so 1:292.2 million times 1:292.2 million so around 1:85.3 billion.[/quote]
yeah sorry about that brain fart. It was late at night. I meant multiply them together, but then i wrote double and was too lazy to check my work and just did a times 2.
CoronitaParticipantI think my days of trying to individually stock pick is over. What I have done is simply take my $3000/month that I use to pay towards a mortgage and impound account and now do a direct deposit into my vanguard account, where it gets auto invested into 5 vanguard index funds covering the total stock market, total international stock market, a tax exempt bond fund, and a money market fund.
That, and I make sure to max out my employee stock purchase and plan on selling immediately to get that 20% gain.
CoronitaParticipantSo, my understanding is that Powerball has 6 numbers.
The first 5 you pick from 1 to 69.
The last number you pick from 1 to 26.So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.
But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren’t you basically saying: what’s the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?
Hypothetically, I guess if you were able to buy every single combination out of the 6 numbers, it would cost you $292.2 million for all the tickets. And with the current jackpot at $550 million, you would come out ahead $257.8 million, if no one else picked the same number. But if someone else happens to pick the same number as you, than you would have to share the prize.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=moneymaker]Yeah if the powerball was a slot machine in Vegas I probably would walk right by it and not play. By the way flu the second grand prize in the McDonalds raffle is a 2016 BMW M6 convertible which goes from 0-60 in 4.2 seconds. They are also giving away a 2016 tesla model S.[/quote]
Yeah but the odds are really slim relative to the bmw cca raffle
CoronitaParticipantThe only raffle I participate in is the BMW CCA annual raffle. The odds of winning a car are 1 in 5000. And that’s a lot better than the odds of someone having my medical condition: 1 in 10000
I’ve won the unlucky health raffle, but I haven’t won an M3/M4 yet. 🙁
CoronitaParticipantUgh…This is going to add up pretty quickly
1. Full roll cage $800 to $1000 + welding labor
https://www.good-win-racing.com/mazda/miata/search_results.html2. Sell my existing rollbar maybe $200
3. R3 restraint device $950
http://www.good-win-racing.com/Mazda-Performance-Part/30-1040R3.html4. 5 point harness $500
http://www.miatacage.com/miscellaneous-safety-1?pagenumber=35. Hardtop $1000
6. Window net and arm restraints $250
8. Seats: $500
Maybe I should pick a cheaper hobby. Like collecting stamps.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=TeCKis300]Having enjoyed my fair share of autox at Qualcomm and track days in the SoCal region… I don’t think either new car would make a good track toy.
While any sporty car can make for a fun autox experience because of the lower speeds, inherent safety of the format, and less consumables.
The reality when talking about road course events is that a street cars make for poor track cars because of fundamental diametric requirements.
But before I go into that, and because I’m a caring parent myself… please don’t send your learning spawn into the hardened roadways, full of distracted and raging drivers, in a tin can car. Mass is by far the biggest discriminator in the outcome of car on car accidents.
So back to that grown up track toy. The mentality should be if you’re willing to put a car on the track, you’re willing to wad it up and throw it away. Your regular insurance won’t cover you, but there are optional track day specific insurance you can buy. And because there’s always a chance you could wad it up (either of your own doing or someone else), or some unforeseen situation (i.e. fluid spillage), safety should be a paramount concern. Which means a cage. Which is good for that 5-point harness you’ll want for safety, but also proper restraints. Cause a track day will put real g-forces on your body. And if you’re working on your technique, you don’t want to be trying to brace yourself with your elbow and knee, while working on your steering and pedal finesse.
I’m happy you recognize that hp is not really that important on the track and is only something that increases risk and the cost of consumables. In a light car (cause add lightness), 200hp is great, 300hp is super fun, 300hp++ and you better have some real safety gear and technique cause stuff happens fast.
You already in many ways own the perfect fun track car. Add a full blown cage, with proper seat, harness, and hans device so you can feel safe on the track. With those items, it’ll be way safer than just about any new track toy anyways. And you’ll be having more fun.
The only other car I’m considering for a dedicated track toy is an older boxter or cayman. If only because of the camaraderie and invites to those events. My street car, while I intended to originally do regular track days with, is waaaay too much hp for the track and a real liability because of that. Plus I love it too much as a street car to add a cage.
Buy the new car you want for the street. You’ll have saved money using the old Miata, and be more safe, and have more fun because of it.[/quote]
Interesting. I might have to rethink this then. Perhaps, I should just give up on the idea of leaving the miata streetable and just make it barely street legal just to move it. Because everything you to to make the car more race prepped is terrible for street use.
I think what that would entail would be
1) Full roll cage: probably adds 100 lbs
2) Bolted hardtop and ditch the convertible top: probably break even on weight3) Removal of front console A/C, airbags
4) Race seats + 5 point harness
5) Hans restraint:
6) Fire bottle extinguisher systemNo way I would be driving a car with a full cage on the street not wearing a helmet. That’s just asking for trouble should someone rear ends you, and your skull lands into a part of the roll cage.
Oh, and I understand the wad up theory very well, hence the miata. It’s just that if it ends up being waded up, I don’t want to be the little sardine in it.
[quote]
The only other car I’m considering for a dedicated track toy is an older boxter or cayman.
[/quote]Yeah, people keep telling me Boxster BSX. It’s not a bad for around $18k
CoronitaParticipantJust curious. Any of you have a fitbit device? No I don’t work for them.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Why is that “ugly” in your book? Shouldn’t you think that it’s beautiful, since you’re out of the market and can re-enter at a lower price point?
It’s just a cycle. As far as TPTB, here’s to them getting roundhouse slapped, hard, with a bloody dose of reality!
A crisis might make Bernie a lot more electable than Shillary.[/quote]
Half foot in, half foot out.
January 4, 2016 at 7:36 AM in reply to: Starting 2016 by Ditching the Serial Refinancing Persona #792956CoronitaParticipant[quote=harvey][quote=bewildering]My first refi was to 4.0%, but the rates that day were 3.9%. [/quote]
So your “no cost” loan cost you 0.1%
There are scenarios where one can come out slightly ahead in cash flow if they take a “no cost” loan and pay if off before the full term. But then there is the opportunity cost of paying off a low-rate, long-term loan early, which the “pay off my mortgage early” crowd always ignores.
And any mortgage broker claiming that a loan is “no cost” is just plain misleading…[/quote]
Yeah, there’s also opportunity cost of not making an investment in a higher return. There’s also the opportunity cost of picking the wrong investments and losing more than if you just paid down your mortgage.
As much as I’d like to think I can always be correct and pick the right stocks/equities/investment, last year taught me I can’t really beat the markets. And last year, dow was flat to slightly negative.
Also, the opportunity cost of a “safe” CD is like 1% return, unless you ladder them…That’s still lower than most people’s mortgage rate, so simply holding onto cash you really aren’t losing that much opportunity cost. You can take a chance that eventually rates will rise above mortgage rates. I personally don’t know when that will happen. Maybe 5 years, maybe 10 maybe 15.
That said, most of the rest of you can probably beat the 2.5 to 3%. over a longer period of time, if I didn’t have so much already tied in equities, I probably would have taken the risk and stuck it out.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=ucodegen] @flu I mentioned the Pontiac GTO because it is an older vehicle, has full independent suspension, has options for manual transmission (the G8 is mostly automatic), uses a Chevy LSx based engine (when means you can be street legal and if you have spare cash, go nuts with an LS9, or sort of nuts with an LSA). Just get the engine from a vehicle of the same year or newer and you are emissions legal – and have horsepower of nearly 600hp for LSA and near 700hp for LS9. There are also a lot of aftermarket parts for the vehicle, and if you don’t find them in the US, you can find them from Australia (It is a Holden chassis). It is heavier than 3000lbs, but that helps if you get hit. A ‘tap’ by someone pushing cars around on the track is less likely to kick you off your line.
What type of vehicles are your beaters? You didn’t mention whether you are doing class racing, and have restrictions on the mods you can do.[/quote]
Don’t plan on doing any sort of competitive class racing. I guess I just want to get on the track and just…drive…. Right now, the only thing I have is a stripped 2250 lb miata that with an Eaton MP-62 supercharger on the cold side. Supposedly, it’s suppose to be about 200hp at the wheel, which is more than enough for my current skill level. Also, I have some adjustable shocks/springs/sway bars, and a less restrictive and lighter weight exhaust (it does have a cat, so it’s street legal and passes CARB, but one dropped one pre-silencer. And I’m running slightly larger tires 225/50/15 or 245/45/15 on 8″ rims (yeah, I know stock miatas are 14″) only because tire selection on 15″ are much better than 14″. Running slightly aggressive streetable pads: Hawk HP+ on stock calipers and rotors, which is fine for auto-x, and I don’t mind switching if it’s needed (I haven’t found a need to yet). No ABS. It’s also stripped: no carpet, no insulation, lightweight 2 lb motorcycle battery, no center console. I can probably reduce the weight by 100 more lbs by dropping the A/C, pulling out what is left of the front console, and replacing the seats with lighter weight seats (which on a full track I probably should do along with a 5 point harness). But then, I would also need to add a full cage, and a hardtop too, and still it wouldn’t be as safe as a car with an actual hardtop, I think. And all that won’t be exactly cheap. So I think I’ll probably keep it as is and use it only for utocross car and something just to throw around for fun. Hence, dedicated track car ideally that can be street legal enough to drive occasionally.
The other beater is an Audi A4 that use to be modded with a larger turbo, but I blew the turbo and the ECU died, so I went back to a stock tune. Not to mention, when that thing breaks, it’s a PITA to fix.
I don’t need a ridiculous high horsepower car, as I’d probably get myself killed at this point with one. As far as “twitchy cars”, that’s one of the reasons why I like the miata.
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