When to get back into market?

[moneymaker]

I don’t know if it really matters when I got out of the market, the question now is when to get back in. Because at some point I do want back in. Anybody have sophisticated software out there that predicts a bottom? Futures are down like 372 or something so I’m thinking it’s not time yet. Just looked it up and I got out 10/23/15.

[livinincali]

When everybody tells you not to buy and they’ve all gotten out.

[Coronita]

I think my days of trying to individually stock pick is over. What I have done is simply take my $3000/month that I use to pay towards a mortgage and impound account and now do a direct deposit into my vanguard account, where it gets auto invested into 5 vanguard index funds covering the total stock market, total international stock market, a tax exempt bond fund, and a money market fund.

That, and I make sure to max out my employee stock purchase and plan on selling immediately to get that 20% gain.

[The-Shoveler]

We started a PowerBall fund at work so I am just going with that and staying out of the market,

Just kidding sort of.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=moneymaker]Anybody have sophisticated software out there that predicts a bottom?[/quote]

Let me assure you that if someone does have sophisticated software that predicts market bottoms with any worthwhile degree of accuracy they are not going to share it with you or me.

Also worth mentioning, a lot of very smart people have worked very hard on trying to develop AI algos that predict market movements of more than a couple minutes away, and to the best of my knowledge all of that has been for naught so far.

There is an argument that when predicting the future your uncertainty goes up exponentially with time. This would explain why high frequency trading is possible with computers but long range trading is not. I’m not totally convinced this is true, but I’m also don’t want to bet much that it is false.

[cvmom]

[quote=flu]I think my days of trying to individually stock pick is over. What I have done is simply take my $3000/month that I use to pay towards a mortgage and impound account and now do a direct deposit into my vanguard account, where it gets auto invested into 5 vanguard index funds covering the total stock market, total international stock market, a tax exempt bond fund, and a money market fund.

That, and I make sure to max out my employee stock purchase and plan on selling immediately to get that 20% gain.[/quote]

Scary. This is almost exactly what I do, practically word for word!

[Anonymous]

Look at a chart of the two most recent market crashes, in 2000 and 2008-9.

When the market crashes, it’s going WAY DOWN. A few hundred point drop on the Dow any given day is a drop in the bucket in the big picture.

[Coronita]

[quote=cvmom][quote=flu]I think my days of trying to individually stock pick is over. What I have done is simply take my $3000/month that I use to pay towards a mortgage and impound account and now do a direct deposit into my vanguard account, where it gets auto invested into 5 vanguard index funds covering the total stock market, total international stock market, a tax exempt bond fund, and a money market fund.

That, and I make sure to max out my employee stock purchase and plan on selling immediately to get that 20% gain.[/quote]

Scary. This is almost exactly what I do, practically word for word![/quote]

I’ve given up trying to predict the markets. Looking at how my passive portion of my investments performed versus active investment in the stock market (both trying to time the long and short) it was clear that my passive investments performed better over the years, simply because of consistently investing small chunks every month, both when its low and high.

Also, you can’t beat a 20% guaranteed return from.an employers espp.

My bigger problem is the much bigger tax bill I will have now that I can no longer write off a mortgage interest deduction.

That tax bill from the w2 paycheck is not going to be pretty. Fortunately I won’t have any rsus vesting for some time.

Alsoy writeoffs from rentals is getting smaller too. No mortgage interedt deduction on most of them.

Oh well. First world problems..heh heh.

[livinincali]

[quote=deadzone]Look at a chart of the two most recent market crashes, in 2000 and 2008-9.

When the market crashes, it’s going WAY DOWN. A few hundred point drop on the Dow any given day is a drop in the bucket in the big picture.[/quote]

The problem is those crashes started from a a couple 2% down days that were no big deal. That’s the problem with trying to time the top of a market. At the onset it looks like a bunch of no big deal corrections. Next thing you know you’re down 20% and don’t want to sell until things go back up. So you hold everything all the way down and sooth yourself with the tried and true you can’t time the market, it will always come back, and nobody could have seen this coming.

We’ll see what happens this time, but I expect most people to get caught in the next crash the same way they got caught in the previous two. Fear of missing out of the upside overwhelms their ability to take profits and wait for better opportunities.

[moneymaker]

If China doesn’t open their markets tomorrow it will be like in the movie “it’s a wonderful life” when they were trying to stay solvent until closing time. I suspect tomorrow the jobs numbers will be good but the story will be China’s Yuan/Dollar ratio. I wanted to get back into the market today but I think I’ll wait.

[La Jolla Renter]

Buy back in 20% chunks all the way down. Make a chart or spread sheet and stick to it.

I got out about the same time you did. Not sure when I am going to go back in. But going to do the above and try to take the emotion out of it.

My plan will also have set points to sell again if the market goes back up.

[moneymaker]

Will the day end up or down? China I believe ended up but Europe ended down, go figure.

[moneymaker]

Looks like a down day, heard the Chinese government was buying while individual investors were selling. Does the US government do this? I would not think so, but what do I know. Anyway I’m back in and feeling wishy washy. As far as futures are concerned are those pending orders or contracts? I’ve always assumed orders since the market last closed.

[dumbrenter]

My sophisticated software predicts the following with 100% certainty : The dow on Dec 31 2016 will not be the same as the dow on Jan 1 2016.

[paramount]

We’ve been living in an economic fantasyland for years.

“We Frontloaded A Tremendous Market Rally” Former Fed President Admits, Warns “No Ammo Left”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/we-frontloaded-tremendous-market-rally-former-fed-president-admits-warns-no-ammo-lef

Or just watch the video:

https://youtu.be/7nuzT3rchPU

[Author]

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