[Coronita]

Bit of turmoil here….Do I sell my shorts or risk taking a bath…

 

I don't know. What are you shorting? You up or losing money? I'm risk adverse, so I would always take money off the table since my philosophy is better to make less than to lose. I usually have a 50% rule. If climate changes, I take half off the table. But that's just me.

However, it feels like things are just going to bounce around a bit here.

 

I'm no expert, but my gut feeling is that things are going to be going up and down for awhile. Market is very flaky these days.

I’m trying to read between the lines. While there is a general euphoria of the discount rate cut, to me it’s also an admission by the Fed that “Houston, we have a problem”.

[Coronita]

The irony of the situation. I’m up at 5:20am, and two things have happened that I spoke of.

1. CFC is upgraded by BOFA

2. Fed lowers discount rate by 50 basis points.

Going to be an interesting day.

[Coronita]

The irony of the situation. I’m up at 5:20am, and two things have happened that I spoke of.

1. CFC is upgraded by BOFA

2. Fed lowers discount rate by 50 basis points.

Going to be an interesting day.

[Coronita]

The irony of the situation. I’m up at 5:20am, and two things have happened that I spoke of.

1. CFC is upgraded by BOFA

2. Fed lowers discount rate by 50 basis points.

Going to be an interesting day.

[Coronita]

It’s anyone’s guess.

[Coronita]

It’s anyone’s guess.

[Coronita]

It’s anyone’s guess.

[Coronita]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to fart around being a day trader. Just trying to take advantage of the current market volatility that won't last that much longer (it will end one way or the other). Personally, I don't think we can tell we're in a bear market (yet). The markets have been wildly swinging around over the past couple of weeks back and forth trading on rumors and speculation. As such, I'm moving in and out of positions of certain companies for which appears to be range bound during these days of volatility. Namely, picking companies that normally are "boring", with no forseeable news (good or bad), but are now bouncing around due to the general instability in the markets. Any company that announces earnings, I won’t reenter the company until after earnings.

I don’t want to short CFC, because I think there’s a bit of uncertainty around it right now. Get a few banks to “upgrade” to hold from sell, or get a bailout from the gov, or the fed does an unexpected rate decrease more than 50 basis points, I could be hosed. The thing I see slightly different from CFC from others is that is doesn’t appear they are having issues wrto to getting credit. As far as changing their business model from doing only conforming loans..Bad news for Kalifornians, but there are plenty of markets that aren’t dependent on jumbo loans out of state.
Just my opinion. If I had to bet, I would put a bet on a long position at this point versus short, but again, too much uncertainty for me to play this one.

[Coronita]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to fart around being a day trader. Just trying to take advantage of the current market volatility that won't last that much longer (it will end one way or the other). Personally, I don't think we can tell we're in a bear market (yet). The markets have been wildly swinging around over the past couple of weeks back and forth trading on rumors and speculation. As such, I'm moving in and out of positions of certain companies for which appears to be range bound during these days of volatility. Namely, picking companies that normally are "boring", with no forseeable news (good or bad), but are now bouncing around due to the general instability in the markets. Any company that announces earnings, I won’t reenter the company until after earnings.

I don’t want to short CFC, because I think there’s a bit of uncertainty around it right now. Get a few banks to “upgrade” to hold from sell, or get a bailout from the gov, or the fed does an unexpected rate decrease more than 50 basis points, I could be hosed. The thing I see slightly different from CFC from others is that is doesn’t appear they are having issues wrto to getting credit. As far as changing their business model from doing only conforming loans..Bad news for Kalifornians, but there are plenty of markets that aren’t dependent on jumbo loans out of state.
Just my opinion. If I had to bet, I would put a bet on a long position at this point versus short, but again, too much uncertainty for me to play this one.

[Coronita]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to fart around being a day trader. Just trying to take advantage of the current market volatility that won't last that much longer (it will end one way or the other). Personally, I don't think we can tell we're in a bear market (yet). The markets have been wildly swinging around over the past couple of weeks back and forth trading on rumors and speculation. As such, I'm moving in and out of positions of certain companies for which appears to be range bound during these days of volatility. Namely, picking companies that normally are "boring", with no forseeable news (good or bad), but are now bouncing around due to the general instability in the markets. Any company that announces earnings, I won’t reenter the company until after earnings.

I don’t want to short CFC, because I think there’s a bit of uncertainty around it right now. Get a few banks to “upgrade” to hold from sell, or get a bailout from the gov, or the fed does an unexpected rate decrease more than 50 basis points, I could be hosed. The thing I see slightly different from CFC from others is that is doesn’t appear they are having issues wrto to getting credit. As far as changing their business model from doing only conforming loans..Bad news for Kalifornians, but there are plenty of markets that aren’t dependent on jumbo loans out of state.
Just my opinion. If I had to bet, I would put a bet on a long position at this point versus short, but again, too much uncertainty for me to play this one.

[Coronita]

Well folks. Thanks for the opinions today.

This day has been really interesting and stressful for me today. This morning I took up a long position on 10k shares of CFC over a 15minute interval, averaging 17.80, hoping for a dead cat bounce over the next few days. However, this afternoon, I started shitting in my pants when things were down to the mid fifeteens. Fortunately, the last hour of trading, I was able to get rid of everything in between 19.80 and 20.05. I don’t think I’ll be trading in this crap again. Too much volatility for my stomach.

I haven’t slept well in the past couple of days, trying to trade a few other stocks on the swings. I’ve been moving in and out of CVX , MO ,GYMB ,INTU over the past few weeks, trying to enter $79,$66,$38,$28 and exiting when things approach $83,$68, $42, $30… This morning i entered CVX, $79.15, MO $65.52 and GYMB $37.25, and this afternoon exited INTU at $29.01. This will be the fifth round of entry I’m doing. (Of course, I did a bonehead thing, and fat fingeredd MOV instead of MO when I was typing too fast during this morning, so I invariably picked up Movado too 🙁 ).

We’ll see how long I can keep this up before I die of a heart attack. Of course this is just play money, so if I lose it oh well. Not sure really how to play with this volatility, so it’s just an (expensive) experiment for me right now.

[Coronita]

Well folks. Thanks for the opinions today.

This day has been really interesting and stressful for me today. This morning I took up a long position on 10k shares of CFC over a 15minute interval, averaging 17.80, hoping for a dead cat bounce over the next few days. However, this afternoon, I started shitting in my pants when things were down to the mid fifeteens. Fortunately, the last hour of trading, I was able to get rid of everything in between 19.80 and 20.05. I don’t think I’ll be trading in this crap again. Too much volatility for my stomach.

I haven’t slept well in the past couple of days, trying to trade a few other stocks on the swings. I’ve been moving in and out of CVX , MO ,GYMB ,INTU over the past few weeks, trying to enter $79,$66,$38,$28 and exiting when things approach $83,$68, $42, $30… This morning i entered CVX, $79.15, MO $65.52 and GYMB $37.25, and this afternoon exited INTU at $29.01. This will be the fifth round of entry I’m doing. (Of course, I did a bonehead thing, and fat fingeredd MOV instead of MO when I was typing too fast during this morning, so I invariably picked up Movado too 🙁 ).

We’ll see how long I can keep this up before I die of a heart attack. Of course this is just play money, so if I lose it oh well. Not sure really how to play with this volatility, so it’s just an (expensive) experiment for me right now.

[Coronita]

Well folks. Thanks for the opinions today.

This day has been really interesting and stressful for me today. This morning I took up a long position on 10k shares of CFC over a 15minute interval, averaging 17.80, hoping for a dead cat bounce over the next few days. However, this afternoon, I started shitting in my pants when things were down to the mid fifeteens. Fortunately, the last hour of trading, I was able to get rid of everything in between 19.80 and 20.05. I don’t think I’ll be trading in this crap again. Too much volatility for my stomach.

I haven’t slept well in the past couple of days, trying to trade a few other stocks on the swings. I’ve been moving in and out of CVX , MO ,GYMB ,INTU over the past few weeks, trying to enter $79,$66,$38,$28 and exiting when things approach $83,$68, $42, $30… This morning i entered CVX, $79.15, MO $65.52 and GYMB $37.25, and this afternoon exited INTU at $29.01. This will be the fifth round of entry I’m doing. (Of course, I did a bonehead thing, and fat fingeredd MOV instead of MO when I was typing too fast during this morning, so I invariably picked up Movado too 🙁 ).

We’ll see how long I can keep this up before I die of a heart attack. Of course this is just play money, so if I lose it oh well. Not sure really how to play with this volatility, so it’s just an (expensive) experiment for me right now.

[Coronita]

rseiser,

I have to applaud you on your honesty. My guess have always been that while in hindsight, everyone always thinks that “that was an obvious candidate for a short, and it would have been easy to follow it all the way down”. However, i think most humans don’t really hold on till the end, due to fear of risk and/or the gain achieved say at 30% convinces people to exit. My gut is that when one’s 30% up, they usually exit some portion (if not all). Myself, I admit that 25% gain is about my threshold when I start exiting, at 35%, I usually exit all but 20% of a position.

Well, anyway, I’m going to play contrarian here, and bought a position in CFC at 17.8 today. Hoping for a dead cat bounce in the next couple of days.

[Coronita]

rseiser,

I have to applaud you on your honesty. My guess have always been that while in hindsight, everyone always thinks that “that was an obvious candidate for a short, and it would have been easy to follow it all the way down”. However, i think most humans don’t really hold on till the end, due to fear of risk and/or the gain achieved say at 30% convinces people to exit. My gut is that when one’s 30% up, they usually exit some portion (if not all). Myself, I admit that 25% gain is about my threshold when I start exiting, at 35%, I usually exit all but 20% of a position.

Well, anyway, I’m going to play contrarian here, and bought a position in CFC at 17.8 today. Hoping for a dead cat bounce in the next couple of days.

[Author]

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