[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

First, I do not try to be a wise guy intentionally, I just wind up on the other side of things most of the time for some reason.

I like to Fade the Wall Street Journal ( do the opposite of the headlines ) just in general. Publications like that are always late to the party and usually a good confirmation that something is about to change in the opposite direction of what they write about.

I use both Tradestation and Genesis software for programming my trading systems. Each has advantages and disadvantages.

Interactive Brokers has the best trading platform by far, and the lowest commission rates, but their customer service is a disaster. Be prepared to speak a foreign language once your 25 minute hold is up, when you call in needing an answer is 30 seconds or less. They will route you to any one of a number of foreign countries. They clipped me for about 25k on a bogus electronic platform failure that they blamed on the exchange, that no other firm had at the same time. Of course this is impossible. I have other friends who have had similar experiences, but they are cheap and I have heard better nowadays. I moved my money out of there after that experience.

Above all, you must do your own research. Any guru will have his or her hot and cold streaks, myself included, so it is always best to make your own decisions. It can be a bit overwhelming, but there are many simple approaches to learn, that do not require huge time commitments. The kitchen sink approach, however does. This is the approach where you arbitrarily weigh the dollar, deficits, fed policy, and 59 other economic variables, and then try to come to a decision as far as what you will do next. No matter how sharp you are, bad decisions will come from that type of approach, or worse decisions that are based on opinions, which leads to alot of second guessing.

Above all, establish parameters for entry and exit points on all investment decisions, before you enter them and ALWAYS FOLLOW THEM. The biggest mistake I see people make, and I have done it myself in my early days, is getting into an investment that immediately goes against the desired direction, and then not knowing when to get out. Emotions take over and before you know it you are short the S&P and down 10% and holding on for dear life. “Well I will just hold on a little longer.” “Damn it, I know I am right.” “What if I get out now and tomorrow the thing skyrockets up?”

These are all comments I hear on the phone from clients and friends all the time. I get out when my rules say to get out, and in when they say to get in. Sometimes I buy the exact high and sell the exact low, who cares. I never get tagged for a huge loss on any one transaction because I follow my rules. I know that over time, keeping emotions and ego out of it will serve me well.

There is always another trade or investment to look at, but there is not always another dollar to place in it. Protect what you have by using discipline not emotion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Obviously taking from the rich to give to the poor was a scheme of someone who was poor. How about giving to the needy, who may or may not be poor?

The originator of the estate tax should be taken out and shot, and I would be more than willing to pull the trigger on one of my guns to do it. Set up the pay per view and my pardon, and it is on!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Obviously taking from the rich to give to the poor was a scheme of someone who was poor. How about giving to the needy, who may or may not be poor?

The originator of the estate tax should be taken out and shot, and I would be more than willing to pull the trigger on one of my guns to do it. Set up the pay per view and my pardon, and it is on!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

patientrenter

By Big Picture, I mean this year, so I am saying that the low for the year in price( high in yield ) is near. It is a very reliable seasonal pattern in Bonds, for the market to make it’s yearly low in the June/July time frame. Then typically a rally occurs ( drop in rates ) through the end of the year.

There are cyclical economic reasons as to why this happens, but I focus mostly on what happens and trying to take advantage of it, as opposed to getting too tied up in the analysis of the why, etc..

I do not know what yield will correspond with the low, but I would guess not much higher than the current, no more than 1/4% more. I am not in the camp that assumes that the 10 yr rate will necessarily be higher than it is now at a later date. Based on the long term downtrend in rates if you look at weekly and monthly charts of them, we could easily be lower in 2 years than we are now.

However, my comments were mostly based on what is likely to happen between now and the end of 2007. It is not meant to be a mysterious comment, but the full explanation of this pattern is more than I am prepared to go into here. I was just trying to add some insight from a traders perspective.

As I have stated before, and always believe, I could be wrong.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

patientrenter

By Big Picture, I mean this year, so I am saying that the low for the year in price( high in yield ) is near. It is a very reliable seasonal pattern in Bonds, for the market to make it’s yearly low in the June/July time frame. Then typically a rally occurs ( drop in rates ) through the end of the year.

There are cyclical economic reasons as to why this happens, but I focus mostly on what happens and trying to take advantage of it, as opposed to getting too tied up in the analysis of the why, etc..

I do not know what yield will correspond with the low, but I would guess not much higher than the current, no more than 1/4% more. I am not in the camp that assumes that the 10 yr rate will necessarily be higher than it is now at a later date. Based on the long term downtrend in rates if you look at weekly and monthly charts of them, we could easily be lower in 2 years than we are now.

However, my comments were mostly based on what is likely to happen between now and the end of 2007. It is not meant to be a mysterious comment, but the full explanation of this pattern is more than I am prepared to go into here. I was just trying to add some insight from a traders perspective.

As I have stated before, and always believe, I could be wrong.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I forecast in my yearly summary at the beginning of the year to my clients rising rates into July then declining after that, so I still believe we will see that. No telling about predictions, but it is on course so far. This is the typical seasonal pattern, so no surprise at all. I am surprised at the magnitude, but not the direction.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I forecast in my yearly summary at the beginning of the year to my clients rising rates into July then declining after that, so I still believe we will see that. No telling about predictions, but it is on course so far. This is the typical seasonal pattern, so no surprise at all. I am surprised at the magnitude, but not the direction.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

temecula guy

How would you define a normal rate? The Bond Market has been in a substantial uptrend for close to 25 years, which is inversely related to rates. So we have been in a declining rate environment for 25 years ( the lows in price/highs in yield, were made in 82 ). Where would you identify a normal rate, 1/4 of the way, 1/2, 3/4, etc.. It is not as if we have see sawed up and down for 20 years and are at the lows, we have gone straight down for a long period, so finding a normal rate is no easy chore.

I do not have this answer, but I suspect rates will stay low for a very long time, just based on it being such a long term trend. We are close to making a high in rates right now I believe, there are some big picture patterns that are going to enter in to the picture shortly calling for a major low in price ( high in rates ).

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

temecula guy

How would you define a normal rate? The Bond Market has been in a substantial uptrend for close to 25 years, which is inversely related to rates. So we have been in a declining rate environment for 25 years ( the lows in price/highs in yield, were made in 82 ). Where would you identify a normal rate, 1/4 of the way, 1/2, 3/4, etc.. It is not as if we have see sawed up and down for 20 years and are at the lows, we have gone straight down for a long period, so finding a normal rate is no easy chore.

I do not have this answer, but I suspect rates will stay low for a very long time, just based on it being such a long term trend. We are close to making a high in rates right now I believe, there are some big picture patterns that are going to enter in to the picture shortly calling for a major low in price ( high in rates ).

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If you want to give me the symbol in an email, I can look at that individual stock and tell you if I think it is overvalued or not. [email protected]. In general tech stocks carry high valuations that are not justified by economics, so I may not be able to tell much, but I am willing to look at it for you.

I disagree on the long term prospects of gold based on my research, so I would not recommend socking your money away there. It is wise to wait to buy though, I think we all agree on that, even though I did not wait myself, LOL!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If you want to give me the symbol in an email, I can look at that individual stock and tell you if I think it is overvalued or not. [email protected]. In general tech stocks carry high valuations that are not justified by economics, so I may not be able to tell much, but I am willing to look at it for you.

I disagree on the long term prospects of gold based on my research, so I would not recommend socking your money away there. It is wise to wait to buy though, I think we all agree on that, even though I did not wait myself, LOL!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

calysmeow

I got short the S&P yesterday on my short term timing system, but exited today for a profit. This just looks for quick hits. The bigger picture method is not likely to generate a sell at weeks end, it only works on weekly data.

If you look back to my prior comments, I did say it would not shock me to see us go back down, even though I did not predict it. Mr Bills Wild Ride going on in Bonds, stocks are holding up ok so far, eventually they will give way if this does not abate.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

calysmeow

I got short the S&P yesterday on my short term timing system, but exited today for a profit. This just looks for quick hits. The bigger picture method is not likely to generate a sell at weeks end, it only works on weekly data.

If you look back to my prior comments, I did say it would not shock me to see us go back down, even though I did not predict it. Mr Bills Wild Ride going on in Bonds, stocks are holding up ok so far, eventually they will give way if this does not abate.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I have come across some very interesting research on GOLD that confirms my view that Gold should underperform stocks for an extended period going forward, several years. I know that are alot of Gold bugs in here, so this will not be a popular post, but it is the way I see it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I have come across some very interesting research on GOLD that confirms my view that Gold should underperform stocks for an extended period going forward, several years. I know that are alot of Gold bugs in here, so this will not be a popular post, but it is the way I see it.

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