Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantChris Johnston
http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there
ParticipantChris Johnston
http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there
ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
ParticipantChris Johnston
Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.
I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.
I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.
The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.
Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.
I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.
I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.
The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.
Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.
I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.
I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.
The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.
Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.
I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.
I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.
The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.
Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.
ParticipantThis thread is pathetic and symbolic of the overall feel of this blog. What are your real motivations for stopping foreclosures? To teach people a lesson? To make yourself feel better that you were right and did not take out a dumb loan? That the economy will be better off if the government lets a huge disaster take place? To buy at bargain basement prices selfishly, just to benefit yourself? To enable yourself to laugh at dislocated families because it is not you?
Some of you people have to realize that certain things are historically upwardly biased, yet you keep fighting it and missing opportunities. These types of things happen to asset classes that are artificially supported, get with the program.
I will not preach anymore, or chat in here anymore, it is just simply way too negative of an environment. Rooting against my fellow americans is just not something I care to do. It is also surprising with the heavy distribution of liberal political views in here, that anti-bailout bias exists. I would have thought it would be the opposite, but the dark side overcomes everything I guess.
Anyone who wishes to know my market views just visit my blog.
ParticipantThis thread is pathetic and symbolic of the overall feel of this blog. What are your real motivations for stopping foreclosures? To teach people a lesson? To make yourself feel better that you were right and did not take out a dumb loan? That the economy will be better off if the government lets a huge disaster take place? To buy at bargain basement prices selfishly, just to benefit yourself? To enable yourself to laugh at dislocated families because it is not you?
Some of you people have to realize that certain things are historically upwardly biased, yet you keep fighting it and missing opportunities. These types of things happen to asset classes that are artificially supported, get with the program.
I will not preach anymore, or chat in here anymore, it is just simply way too negative of an environment. Rooting against my fellow americans is just not something I care to do. It is also surprising with the heavy distribution of liberal political views in here, that anti-bailout bias exists. I would have thought it would be the opposite, but the dark side overcomes everything I guess.
Anyone who wishes to know my market views just visit my blog.
ParticipantThis thread is pathetic and symbolic of the overall feel of this blog. What are your real motivations for stopping foreclosures? To teach people a lesson? To make yourself feel better that you were right and did not take out a dumb loan? That the economy will be better off if the government lets a huge disaster take place? To buy at bargain basement prices selfishly, just to benefit yourself? To enable yourself to laugh at dislocated families because it is not you?
Some of you people have to realize that certain things are historically upwardly biased, yet you keep fighting it and missing opportunities. These types of things happen to asset classes that are artificially supported, get with the program.
I will not preach anymore, or chat in here anymore, it is just simply way too negative of an environment. Rooting against my fellow americans is just not something I care to do. It is also surprising with the heavy distribution of liberal political views in here, that anti-bailout bias exists. I would have thought it would be the opposite, but the dark side overcomes everything I guess.
Anyone who wishes to know my market views just visit my blog.
ParticipantI have tip toed around this for long enough. You are a complete idiot if you think a financial system failure is going to make you rich. Even if you were short the world, the brokerage firm your account is at will be shut down, the government will not have any money to make you whole, and you will be broke and unemployed just like everyone else.
However, you will be able to say you were right if there ever is enough money anywhere for a cocktail party to be thrown. The Fed did this not to bail out the market or the big players, they are doing it to prevent a complete shutdown. Why is that so hard for so many to understand?
So many people are too busy trying to have their end of the world predictions proven correct, that you fail to realize why the odds are so heavily against it. Do you really expect the Federal Reserve to sit back and watch financial armageddon happen without doing anything? You may want poor individual people to get screwed to make yourself feel better about your own situation, but collectively we all suffer if this happens. I personally do not want to see people’s lives ruined who were tricked by dishonest people into the situations they are in. I do not feel any elevated status when bad things happen to others that I avoid. Let’s face it, some people that do not deserve to be saved will be, it has always been that way and always will be.
Accept the way the system works and use it to your advantage. Quit trying to force it to meet your requirements. We are far from out of the woods, this is only one little step, which if it does work, will be one of the most brilliant moves of all time by a Fed Chairman. Please read in detail what happened, the discount rate did not get lowered yet, what occurred was something different than that.
-
AuthorPosts
