Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
March 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #169836Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantJWM
My advice was very clear go to 100% cash in the last week of December and still be there until the end of March. We are not at that date yet so the book is not closed on that advice but it sure appears to be pretty good. I fail to see how that was bad advice, you would have missed a substantial drop in the DOW as all my clients who follow me have. Maybe I should cut and past some of the thank you’s I have gotten in my emails from clients. I posted several seasonal price projections in my newsletter that all showed a possible low point in March, and one in May. Time will tell if they are right, but the cash position sure looks good right now.
I am a short term trader as anyone who has read my posts here would know. Also I have a audited record of superior returns, that you would not want to compare with yours, it showed $35,000 per futures contract profit for the year of 2007.
Can you show something better than that? it was second in the world I think for last year, with Commodity Timing being first. I am dead against long term investing and always have been. However I do hold some positions for 6 months or so, which I intend to do when I go back in here in the near future on the long side.
Sorry to disappoint you with the facts. Is there one other single person in here who goes on the record several months in advance and calls turning points and what they will do when they arrive? I called for an end of July high last year that was off by two weeks yet called it before the year started. I made that call in this blog along with the post that stated in was time to be in cash at the end of last year.
I correctly called the yields in Bonds last year which Adam can attest to, literally within a week or two of the highs and lows well in advance. It is clear to me I am not a fit here so I will lurk and make an occasional comment if any going forward.
Best wishes to you all, but I hope you do not miss the opportunities that are coming by being too scared to act. Fear sells tickets but does not help you become wealthy.
March 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170165Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantJWM
My advice was very clear go to 100% cash in the last week of December and still be there until the end of March. We are not at that date yet so the book is not closed on that advice but it sure appears to be pretty good. I fail to see how that was bad advice, you would have missed a substantial drop in the DOW as all my clients who follow me have. Maybe I should cut and past some of the thank you’s I have gotten in my emails from clients. I posted several seasonal price projections in my newsletter that all showed a possible low point in March, and one in May. Time will tell if they are right, but the cash position sure looks good right now.
I am a short term trader as anyone who has read my posts here would know. Also I have a audited record of superior returns, that you would not want to compare with yours, it showed $35,000 per futures contract profit for the year of 2007.
Can you show something better than that? it was second in the world I think for last year, with Commodity Timing being first. I am dead against long term investing and always have been. However I do hold some positions for 6 months or so, which I intend to do when I go back in here in the near future on the long side.
Sorry to disappoint you with the facts. Is there one other single person in here who goes on the record several months in advance and calls turning points and what they will do when they arrive? I called for an end of July high last year that was off by two weeks yet called it before the year started. I made that call in this blog along with the post that stated in was time to be in cash at the end of last year.
I correctly called the yields in Bonds last year which Adam can attest to, literally within a week or two of the highs and lows well in advance. It is clear to me I am not a fit here so I will lurk and make an occasional comment if any going forward.
Best wishes to you all, but I hope you do not miss the opportunities that are coming by being too scared to act. Fear sells tickets but does not help you become wealthy.
March 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170174Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantJWM
My advice was very clear go to 100% cash in the last week of December and still be there until the end of March. We are not at that date yet so the book is not closed on that advice but it sure appears to be pretty good. I fail to see how that was bad advice, you would have missed a substantial drop in the DOW as all my clients who follow me have. Maybe I should cut and past some of the thank you’s I have gotten in my emails from clients. I posted several seasonal price projections in my newsletter that all showed a possible low point in March, and one in May. Time will tell if they are right, but the cash position sure looks good right now.
I am a short term trader as anyone who has read my posts here would know. Also I have a audited record of superior returns, that you would not want to compare with yours, it showed $35,000 per futures contract profit for the year of 2007.
Can you show something better than that? it was second in the world I think for last year, with Commodity Timing being first. I am dead against long term investing and always have been. However I do hold some positions for 6 months or so, which I intend to do when I go back in here in the near future on the long side.
Sorry to disappoint you with the facts. Is there one other single person in here who goes on the record several months in advance and calls turning points and what they will do when they arrive? I called for an end of July high last year that was off by two weeks yet called it before the year started. I made that call in this blog along with the post that stated in was time to be in cash at the end of last year.
I correctly called the yields in Bonds last year which Adam can attest to, literally within a week or two of the highs and lows well in advance. It is clear to me I am not a fit here so I will lurk and make an occasional comment if any going forward.
Best wishes to you all, but I hope you do not miss the opportunities that are coming by being too scared to act. Fear sells tickets but does not help you become wealthy.
March 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170195Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantJWM
My advice was very clear go to 100% cash in the last week of December and still be there until the end of March. We are not at that date yet so the book is not closed on that advice but it sure appears to be pretty good. I fail to see how that was bad advice, you would have missed a substantial drop in the DOW as all my clients who follow me have. Maybe I should cut and past some of the thank you’s I have gotten in my emails from clients. I posted several seasonal price projections in my newsletter that all showed a possible low point in March, and one in May. Time will tell if they are right, but the cash position sure looks good right now.
I am a short term trader as anyone who has read my posts here would know. Also I have a audited record of superior returns, that you would not want to compare with yours, it showed $35,000 per futures contract profit for the year of 2007.
Can you show something better than that? it was second in the world I think for last year, with Commodity Timing being first. I am dead against long term investing and always have been. However I do hold some positions for 6 months or so, which I intend to do when I go back in here in the near future on the long side.
Sorry to disappoint you with the facts. Is there one other single person in here who goes on the record several months in advance and calls turning points and what they will do when they arrive? I called for an end of July high last year that was off by two weeks yet called it before the year started. I made that call in this blog along with the post that stated in was time to be in cash at the end of last year.
I correctly called the yields in Bonds last year which Adam can attest to, literally within a week or two of the highs and lows well in advance. It is clear to me I am not a fit here so I will lurk and make an occasional comment if any going forward.
Best wishes to you all, but I hope you do not miss the opportunities that are coming by being too scared to act. Fear sells tickets but does not help you become wealthy.
March 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170271Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantJWM
My advice was very clear go to 100% cash in the last week of December and still be there until the end of March. We are not at that date yet so the book is not closed on that advice but it sure appears to be pretty good. I fail to see how that was bad advice, you would have missed a substantial drop in the DOW as all my clients who follow me have. Maybe I should cut and past some of the thank you’s I have gotten in my emails from clients. I posted several seasonal price projections in my newsletter that all showed a possible low point in March, and one in May. Time will tell if they are right, but the cash position sure looks good right now.
I am a short term trader as anyone who has read my posts here would know. Also I have a audited record of superior returns, that you would not want to compare with yours, it showed $35,000 per futures contract profit for the year of 2007.
Can you show something better than that? it was second in the world I think for last year, with Commodity Timing being first. I am dead against long term investing and always have been. However I do hold some positions for 6 months or so, which I intend to do when I go back in here in the near future on the long side.
Sorry to disappoint you with the facts. Is there one other single person in here who goes on the record several months in advance and calls turning points and what they will do when they arrive? I called for an end of July high last year that was off by two weeks yet called it before the year started. I made that call in this blog along with the post that stated in was time to be in cash at the end of last year.
I correctly called the yields in Bonds last year which Adam can attest to, literally within a week or two of the highs and lows well in advance. It is clear to me I am not a fit here so I will lurk and make an occasional comment if any going forward.
Best wishes to you all, but I hope you do not miss the opportunities that are coming by being too scared to act. Fear sells tickets but does not help you become wealthy.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantMy condolences to the people in here following a day like that, you must really hate these types of days. Maybe this will lead you to study what really drives the markets, and get off your arbitrary opinions which do not correlate at all to the real forces behind market moves?
One day does not a low make, but this should alert you to why this market is close to launching upward. If not that is your own fault.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantMy condolences to the people in here following a day like that, you must really hate these types of days. Maybe this will lead you to study what really drives the markets, and get off your arbitrary opinions which do not correlate at all to the real forces behind market moves?
One day does not a low make, but this should alert you to why this market is close to launching upward. If not that is your own fault.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantMy condolences to the people in here following a day like that, you must really hate these types of days. Maybe this will lead you to study what really drives the markets, and get off your arbitrary opinions which do not correlate at all to the real forces behind market moves?
One day does not a low make, but this should alert you to why this market is close to launching upward. If not that is your own fault.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantMy condolences to the people in here following a day like that, you must really hate these types of days. Maybe this will lead you to study what really drives the markets, and get off your arbitrary opinions which do not correlate at all to the real forces behind market moves?
One day does not a low make, but this should alert you to why this market is close to launching upward. If not that is your own fault.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantMy condolences to the people in here following a day like that, you must really hate these types of days. Maybe this will lead you to study what really drives the markets, and get off your arbitrary opinions which do not correlate at all to the real forces behind market moves?
One day does not a low make, but this should alert you to why this market is close to launching upward. If not that is your own fault.
-
AuthorPosts
