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Chris Johnston
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comPW – I have no idea why the commercials got short OIL, but you do not need to know that, just follow what they do. The price has dropped over $10 per barrel since they went short.
I try to keep it simple and not over analyze things. It gets too hard to pull the trigger when there are too many variables to review, as per my explanation on my site.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comScroll back and look for comments/posts from me about the upcoming bull move in stocks. The fall of mid term congressional years is the most bullish stock cycle that exists, it begins in the fall. The rally in bonds ( dropping of rates ) has pushed this rally so far in equities.
Whether we get a dip into the fall or not is up to question. Many of these congressional election rallies have begun from upmoves like we are experiencing right now. I will be looking to get heavily long in November.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comRates are not rising right now, the 30 yr Bond has made a nice upmove, long rates are going down and have been for 2 months. The yield curve has once again inverted. If you look at 30 yr mortgage rates, they are less than what they were two months ago. It is speculation whether this will continue or not, but it is my belief that the Fed will be very hesitant to move short rates up again if the housing market rolls over. If they do not move short rates up next year, it is likely we will have a continued low interest rate environment for awhile.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comSB- when you are short stocks you do not own them, so that will not show up as a holding. Do not nit pick this, if you think the market is going to drop, Rydex funds are a good way to play that. Some also have a 2 to 1 kicker, they will go up twice the amount of the drop. Of course the reverse is equally true, they will drop double the amount of the rise in the market if they are wrong. Check the loads to make sure they are small.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comLeung, check out my blog for the recent chart on OIL. It showed the commercials getting short a few weeks back and bingo, a big drop. I do not recall the day I posted it, but it was within the last 2 weeks, it should be in the recent posts listing on the left.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comSB/poway – there is absolutely no reason to be afraid of shorting, you need to get over this fear. I make more money on the short side than the long side when I measure all of my trades over time. Why? prices drop faster and more sharply than they rally in general. As a result you can get a bigger bang with less exposure ( time in the market risk ).
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comybc – blog address is http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/ you can also get there via a link to it in the last paragraph from the home page of my web site, address to the site is above. You will have to dig for the May 10 or 11 post because it is in the archives, but it is there.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comRocket man – the phenomena you mention about large caps is a bearish sign. I mentioned this in my post on May 10th in my blog as a reason to sell your stocks. When the Dow starts out performing the S&P 500 it is a reason to start looking for a sell spot.
The dollar does have an indirect relationship to Gold. The point of that section of my newsletter was just watching inflation keeps your analysis much simpler, and the straight correlation is better. KISS is very valuable in investing.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comDuring the period of time that data covers there were only 2 mid-term congressional election periods, both of which produced a rally. In any event, a sample size of 2 is meaningless data chatter. You cannot draw any conclusions from a set up two. You could have two consecutive heads come up vs tails, which hardly means every flip of the coin will be a tail.
Small sample sizes on fundamentally based relationships is okay, but not that small.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comI fail to see how taking 10 trillion dollars out of an economy that is already fragile is going to solve any problems. Where will you get the 10 trillion replacement dollars, and how will you employ the millions that will lose their jobs?
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comDo we have any attorney’s out there to chime in on this. Does he have any exposure on comments like this? So many if not all of those comments are blatantly false. I continue to believe that there is going to be some political grandstanding that will go on like Spitzers skits he performs after this is said and done. The politicians are going to pick out a few people and hang them if things get really bad, just like they did with stocks in the day.
Spitzers routine has done virtually nothing but make it appear he was doing something. It will be the same with this industry with a few lenders, and brokerage guys. The Robert Tolls of the world are smart for posturing like they are, because he will avoid being a target. This guy is not listening to his attorneys I suspect.
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comWhen are we going to get to religion so we can get a jihad going against RE insiders?
ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comGreat Post
1)Renting
2) Sold Aug 2005
3) Sold at the peak in OC almost exactly bought for 700k sold for 1.9M
4) Independent analysis – mostly due to cyclical research as well as realizing I had to high a % of my assets in one place. I had also determined that I did not want to live there the rest of my life.
5) Probably will not move back to Newport Coast – looking for horse property with an ocean view, so I will go wherever that leads me, once I get back into the market. SD Realtor, I will enlist your services once the time is right.ParticipantChris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.comBugs, I am glad to hear you say that. I was just thinking that this seems to be happening up here in OC almost overnight. The deterioration in the last 30 to 60 days in terms of sales volume has been very surprising.
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