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Carlsbadliving
ParticipantIs the land already entitled? What kind of permits will you need? Depending on the complexity of the planning issues I’d recommend starting the planning process right now. Maybe the site’s ready to go, but if not there’s many issues that could potentially take years to work through with the City (Biology, soils, etc.) Besides, once you’ve got your entitlements, you typically have 2 years to start building, and even then you could get extensions. That way you could just sit back and wait to time the market to build.
ParticipantGeorge Chamberlin was actually discussing this this morning. He couldn’t wipe the smile off his face. I hate that guy. He doesn’t have a clue. Housing starts doesn’t mean anything. If anything it means that plenty of projects were started during this boom and they are now coming to fruition. The entitlement process (especially in So Cal) can take up to 5 years. Developers aren’t going to walk away from projects after spending many years and million of dollars just because the market starts to change. They’ll rush to build what’s finally been approved, discount if necessary, and get out.
ParticipantDon’t you think a lot of those folks who took out ARMS are already anticipating rate adjustments and taking actions to deal with those changes?
I don’t think the majority of people with ARMs have done anything to prepare. Most of them haven’t seen an increase yet, but it’s coming in the next year or two. Add to that, the fact that the media has been slow to the bubble and I can guarantee that a vast majority of ARM owners are oblivious to their future financial obligations as well as the state of the housing market.
ParticipantJust leave your phone number that way nobody will know what your email address is…
ParticipantWhatever the reason for the post office thing, you have to look at the small sample size for RSF. Homes out there can go for $1m up to $10+m. Their numbers can be all over the board on a month to month basis.
ParticipantHere’s a good one. Nothing like lowering your price once a week:
Price Reduced: 05/19/06 — $1,250,000 to $1,195,000
Price Reduced: 05/23/06 — $1,195,000 to $1,150,000
Price Reduced: 05/31/06 — $1,150,000 to $1,050,000
Price Reduced: 06/07/06 — $1,050,000 to $999,000This is in Carlsbad 92009
ParticipantI think they’re headed to all those places, plus Wash, Oregon, Idaho, etc. Any place that was cheaper.
ParticipantIt means that the builders know what’s coming and are slashing prices to get out as fast as possible. They can’t sit on inventory like the resale market. Resales are sticking tough on their prices and finding enough fools to buy to keep the resale median afloat.
ParticipantI actually had a good friend leave San Diego last June for Salt Lake. Cashed out his house here and paid cash for an acre sized custom home there. He kept telling that he couldn’t believe how cheap it was there. He didn’t seem to have a problem finding a software job there either. It was like an island that hadn’t been touched by an portion of the bubble. Maybe he wasn’t alone and over the last year they’ve had a lot more Californians coming in. I just couldn’t bring myself to live there no matter how cheap it is.
ParticipantLooks like your brother could get the better end of the stick on that situation.
ParticipantI think in today’s climate, you’re much better off buying in an older established neighborhood without Mello-Roos or HOA. You could be looking at up to $1000/month in some places. Plus then you don’t have to deal with all the stupid HOA requirements. You might be able to actually put a basketball hoop up.
Participantscowman,
I agree about the dogs. We currently rent and had a heck of a time finding a place that would accept dogs and that had a big enough back yard for the dogs to run around. We ended up in a pretty run down place. So run down that the owners didn’t care that we had dogs because the yard was already dead and the carpet/paint in bad shape. We are good dog owners and if even we had been able to find a nice place the dogs wouldn’t have done any damage. But the stereotype of dog owners is hard to overcome. Definetly a downside to renting.
ParticipantI agree completely with PS. So many people right now have a chance to cash in on something that may never come along again in their lifetime. Several hundred thousand free and clear.
Unfortunately, it just comes down to how many people actually understand and believe that there will be a major correction. Everyone debating on this board has a good grasp of the bubble and the impending implications. However, the vast majority of the population go about their day with no clue of the waterfall lurking ahead. It goes back to the media, and the fact that the worst thing that’s been reported so far is that prices may stay flat for awhile. But if the media reported the truth and everyone knew that prices were in for a major correction then everyone would try to sell and nobody would be dumb enough to buy right now. So there reaches a certain point that if enough people know the truth, then the opportunity to cash out becomes less. So PS should actually thank the media and the general public for being oblivoius to the whole thing. Without them, you wouldn’t have made all that money.
It’s the smart people that understand this bubble that will make the money. I wish I’d had the fortune to buy 5-8 years ago. I’d be selling right now in a heartbeat.
ParticipantYou have to remember that each day millions of people/investors will make decisions that when put together will shape the “market”. Obviously millions of people will have various different reasons/inclinations for their financial moves. For someone to then sit back at the end of the day and think they know why millions of different decisions were made, is ridiculous. Now, sometimes there are major factors/events that can happen and cause things to move in a particular direction but the majority of the time, especially on a day to day basis, the market is subject to immense variations in strategy or approach. Then when all of those are added up, you have your “market”.
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