Carmel Valley invincible?

[KingKong]

Just got this from Pardee and it seems that the main builder in Carmel Valley is bailing out fast 🙂

“Take advantage of special prices and financing on select homes at Saratoga for one day only. This private invitation has been sent to you in advance of the public release, giving you an early opportunity to purchase your new home in Carmel Country Highlands.

“Don’t miss this Private Sale
11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.
Sunday, June 11th, 2006
at Saratoga in Carmel Country Highlands

[barnaby33]

Didn’t you or someone else post this before? I could have sworn I have seen a post with almost the same language. Maybe it was a different development.

Josh

[zk]

I checked out the “special prices and financing.” They’re giving $20,000 towards flooring, and 3% of the purchase price toward financing. The houses being in the 950k to 1M range, that 3% is about another 30K. Plus, about 6 months ago, they started offering an 18k agent commission, which they hadn’t been doing before that. So that’s a total of about 50K less a buyer would pay, and about 68k less that the builder would get for the house (about 6.8%). All without dropping the “price.”

On the other hand, they had been increasing the prices between phases for the last 6 months. That slowed things down, hence the current offers. Still, with the incentives, the amount a buyer would pay now is a bit less than they’d have paid 6 months ago.

[PD]

The top article on Yahoo’s Most Popular (Most Recommended) is “Housing Prices Drooping, Buyers waiting.”

My mother lives in an area of Phoenix that is very vulnerable to a downturn. I tried to tell her again today that they should consider selling their house, particularly as her husband’s company is downsizing and he is worried about his job and her bills are higher than she budgeted when they bought the house. She told me it would be stupid to sell as there are so many houses for sale in her neighborhood right now. She told me it would be much better to wait. She does not understand that it not going to get better with time – at least for the next few years.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Looks like the new Del Sur development (in Carmel Valley) is having a big grand opening splash next weekend. If anyone goes to check it out, I would really appreciate hearing feedback about the attendance, the buzz (or lack thereof), and any other general thoughts or comments about things.

I am hopefully optimistic that the development will fall flat on it’s face due to poor timing of the launch and the rising interest rate environment and changing homebuyer sentiment.

“Death to the zero lot”

[farbet]

Totally overpriced. Mello Roos And HOA is like another mini moortage. San elijio, Carmel Valley all the same.
Is there a way of megotiating lower MR.
I an from back east and don’t believe we have a MR problem.
Perhaps its best to buy in a NO MR AND HOA area and Upgrade the house.
Any input would be greatly appreciated

[PD]

When we purchased in 2002, we bought a great house in Ramona with no HOA and no MR. The commute was much, much better than north on the 15.

[Carlsbadliving]

I think in today’s climate, you’re much better off buying in an older established neighborhood without Mello-Roos or HOA. You could be looking at up to $1000/month in some places. Plus then you don’t have to deal with all the stupid HOA requirements. You might be able to actually put a basketball hoop up.

[solman]

Those Saratoga homes have an HOA from 60-150/mo, and a MR of 104/mo. Worst case total is $254/mo, not $1000!

The homes with the incentives are right on Carmel Mountain road, and hence the trouble selling them. I went to a release a couple weeks ago and all 5 properties sold in 5 minutes, with 10-15 other couples disappointed they couldn’t buy one.

Similarly for the more expensive Derby Hill. They have a list of over 500 people waiting to spend $1.2-1.5m, and they always sell out on release day.

Carmel Valley does indeed seem invincible. At least for now.

[PD]

If the RE markets tank, all areas of SD are going to be affected. It might take longer for it to happen in some areas and some areas will see a smaller reduction but no place is immune. When areas drop, they begin to have more value relative to the holdout areas. A lot of people would rather send their kids to school in a school district that ranks slightly lower than pay the ever increasing difference in price. There is a premium for location and schools but it has an end point. The downward trend is likely to be uneven and choppy.

[powayseller]

The Carmel Valley story proves that optimism is still high in San Diego. Those of you wanting to buy, wait until the optimism has turned to pessimism. When nobody turns out for the next release in Carmel Valley, start looking for bargains.

[zk]

Actually, $254/mo is not the worst case scenario. North of the 56, in Pacific highlands ranch, Mello Roos are up to $350/mo, and HOA fees are about 100/mo now, and will at least double when some new facilities are finished.

[zk]

I started running a zip realty search on Carmel Valley on June 9. (zip 92130, 3+br 2+ba, $600k-$2M, single family home, any sf, any lot size, any year built)

On June 9 there were 200 listings. That number has climbed a little every day and now, at 1 p.m on June 14, there are 216. Inventory is up 8% in 5 days. I suppose that could be an anomalous spike, but at that rate, inventory would go up 50% in a month!

[solman]

Right, I was talking about Saratoga (Carmel Country Highlands), not Pacific Highlands Ranch. PHR can go as bad as $600/mo for HOA & MR for their more expensive homes.

[farbet]

Pity the jokers who are payingthese outrageous HOA and MR on top of the MTG.
I remember visiting Saratoga around April or May 2005.
They sales office was jumping. People had checks in hand signing contracts. We couldn’t catch anyone to talk to us.
What a year makes!!
Del Sur seems a bust so far.

[Author]

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