[carlislematthew]

I again kindly request data on which jobs in San Diego are going up 50% in the next 3 years.

It’s not that certain JOBS will go up 50%, but certain PEOPLE may experience 50% increases in pay. Let’s look at my profession – software development. When I had 2 years of experience I was earning $53K. When I had 5 years of experience I was earning over $80K (I don’t remember the exact figure). Sure, I did well for myself, but I was NOT an exception by any means.

Go to salary.com and do a comparison of entry level programmer vs a programmer with 3 years of experience, or some equivalent search. You’ll find large increases in salary based on the increased experience.

Later in your career, salaries will tend to level out somewhat, or keep on increasing if you go into management, or whatever.

I decided to get some data for you, from salary.com.

Entry level software engineer – 92126 – $56K.
Intermediate level software engineer – 92126 – $70K
Level III software engineer – 92126 – $82K

The intermediate position is defined as 2-4 years of experience (so let’s say 3 years) and the salaries are median salaries. 25% increase in salary in 3 years.

Level III position is 5 years of experience, which is another 17% is the following 2 years.

So, an average software engineer will increase their salary by an average of 46% in the first 5 years of their career. OK, so it’s not 3 years, but still. It’s not wage stagnation by any means for these particular people.

I imagine there are other professions that are similar.

[carlislematthew]

It’s almost funny to hear people defending these loans.

IO loans are entirely defensible. There is a segment of borrowers that are prime candidates for this loan, but it’s certainly less than 80%!! WAY less.

One shouldn’t say that these loans are good for everyone, and one shouldn’t say that they are good for noone.

[carlislematthew]

At next meetup I’ll get you a cold drink. I’m so glad I have AC, set at 81 with ceiling fan and its great.

When I get home, my house is at 90 degrees. My poor cats!

Cold drink, yes! 🙂

[carlislematthew]

The more I think about it, the more I feel that there will be some sort of government intervention to slow the bursting of the bubble.

What I wonder is *how* the government will do this if it is the case that only *some* markets are experiencing a downturn. Policy-wise, is there anything that *can* be done locally? Or is interest rates and federal tax cuts the only tool of any size? If the national housing market doesn’t collapse, then how can the federal government do anything?

Locally, what could San Diego county do to prevent the carnage? Personally, I think those working for the county wouldn’t mind prices dropping a little too – I don’t imagine they earn a huge amount of money.

[carlislematthew]

You family income puts you more than two standard deviation from the median, over 95% confidence ratio. [hopefully you have been there too, SDREALTOR!] So how exactly would your situation have any relevance to even San Diego avg?

Because I exist. 🙂

(at least I think I do. If I don’t exist, then I don’t understand why it feels so hot. perhaps I’m in hell. interesting…. I didn’t think hell would be so humid!)

[carlislematthew]

And most (if not all) of government benefits are based on the full CPI, not the core. So it’s unfair to blame the government for massaging the core figure, as they don’t actually use it to compute benefits. The core CPI is of great interest only to the Fed and to Wall Street.

Very interesting – thanks for the clarification, Daniel.

[carlislematthew]

PS, I agree with pretty much all your CPI analysis, but do have to clarify something regarding your statement: “That’s why so few people have health care insurance”.

It is my understanding that 85% of the population is covered by one plan or another, whether it be medicare, or regular insurance. Yes, that 15% NOT covered is a massive number, but still, the VAST majority of the population is insured.

I’m not saying it’s perfect, or that it shouldn’t be better…

[carlislematthew]

If you drive around in the evening and see cars parked everywhere, then you can assume that people are renting out rooms, even garages. That phenomenon is best illustrated in Clairemont and Mira Mesa.

Absolutely right. I’m renting a place in Mira Mesa right now and the neighbors one one side are some reclusive old lady with the largest satellite dish you’ll ever see. On the other side is a huge 2500 sq foot ugly box with about 10 people in it. Luckily, they avoid the outside world and so it’s wonderfully peaceful as I sit out here on my quiet patio. They’re very nice people, but I’ve lived here for 6 months and I’m not sure if I’ve seen them all yet!

In addition to looking at how many cars are parked on the road, I also like to look at how many stupidly large RVs or boats are just sitting parked on the road. Mira Mesa seems to have a large amount of that too. I assume that CCNRs (?) prevent things like that in nicer neighborhoods…

[carlislematthew]

Thanks rankandfile, I do try to stir up the pot. But I need to learn to be strong without alienating people.

PS, why not make your own web site? If someone doesn’t like your content then they just won’t come back. It’s *your* site and you can say it how you want to – rude, kind, whatever. On a shared forum like this you have to consider others and be civil. We’ve seen what happens when these rules break down.

I think I recall you saying one time that you’re from a computer science background. If so, the website should be particularly easy. If not, and need a little help then you can always ask the forum. There are tons of computer types here, including me.

I guess there’s the question of what your website will contain, but that’s another issue. Please, don’t do another blog. This “blogosphere” thing is getting totally overblown!

[carlislematthew]

I saw one other post where you wrote about the “real” inflation versus the manipulated numbers released to the public. The CPI is computed in a technical fashion, by skilled people. To suggest that the government, or some other entity, manipulates the CPI numbers, is ludicrous.

They don’t manipulate it in the sense that they “fix the figures”. They certainly don’t just make up numbers or lie about it. That wasn’t at all what was meant.

What the goverment DOES do, and they’ve done it for decades, is move various categories out of the CPI if they go up in price, and replace them with others. I personally don’t think that’s so bad as long as it’s done reasonably. I myself will not buy steak if it’s above a certain price, and I never touch $4 a pound asparagus even though I love the stuff!

The main issues I have with the CPI is that the percentages they use for things like healthcare are off. Similarly, real-estate increases have not been factored in because they use this weird “rent” figure. So while mortgages have been going up for real people in the real world, the CPI has not been relecting this.

Finally, the biggest sin is the “core” inflation figure which removes food and energy. What has been going up the most recently? Yeah, energy! Gasoline, gas, etc. So real increases in the costs to consumers over the last few years have been masked by these simplified “core” figures. Ultimately, energy prices feeds into other prices (food!) of goods, so core CPI will be affected, but it’s not the same thing in my opinion.

I also believe that it *is* in the best interests of the government to keep CPI down, in general, because it is used as a link for various government payouts. Powayseller has mentioned a few…

I don’t think it’s any big conspiracy. It’s way too obvious for that. 🙂

[carlislematthew]

Another example. Health insurance for a family is $600/month, about 10% of wages if you make $100K/year. For employers it is the largest cost. For GM, $1,000 of every car is for health insurance for their workers. So the health insurance premium should be 10% of CPI, but is it less than 0.1%.

I’m not sure how 600 bucks a month is 10% of 100K a year, especially as healthcare premiums are pre-tax. If the percentages are using pre-tax salaries then this is more like 5%.

Having said that, not everyone is a family, and not everyone pays that much in health insurance. My wife and I both work, earn close to 200K a year, and we pay about $800 a YEAR on health insurance. We have pretty good coverage through our jobs, but it’s not the best coverage out there. So I’m paying about 0.5% in insurance.

So, some will pay $600, and some pay less, and some pay nothing (government, or whatever).

Still, I agree that the CPI figures are insane and need adjusting. Especially the “core” index, which seems to me to be the inflation figure with all that pesky stuff take out. You know, the stuff that goes up in price.. Yuk.

In addition, my understanding regarding GM is that the $1000 figure you quote is for workers AND retired workers, who I believe outnumber current workers by 2 to 1. If that’s true (and I believe it’s close, if not entirely accurate) then that would put the cost at about $300 for their current workers, which is what your basically implying in your quote. GM’s problem is not so much their healthcare for their current workers (now that they’ve got rid of a bunch), it’s the costs they have to pay for the retired ones that they made promises to all those years ago. Other car companies do not have *nearly* the burden that GM has in this area.

[carlislematthew]

Yeah, I know they’re street names – I’m fairly new to town, but have been up there a few times myself.

I find it amusing how city developers come up with street names…

[carlislematthew]

Have had romantic interludes on Manchester, Cambridge, Oxford, Liverpool, Glasgow and Dublin.

Wow, I’m from the United Kingdom originally and even I’ve never been to all those places, let alone had romantic interludes there.

You surely are a world traveller, sd “Big House” realtor. 🙂

[carlislematthew]

Your statement that it’s been said for 10 years doesn’t hold weight either – some economists have been talking about the housing bubble popping for 5 years and they were wrong too, until it happened. I appreciate your response. Well, what do you think about the impact of the END of CHEAP OIL?

You wondered why people were in denial about oil prices going to $200 a barrel and I responded that it’s because the “peak oil” argument has been used before too many times. Oil bears have cried wolf too many times and so they’re mostly ignored. Same with the housing bears. It doesn’t matter if they’re right or not.

Dire predictions were made regarding $60 oil. Same with $70 oil. Some inflation hit us, but nothing huge. I think as soon as the economy weakens just a little (end of somw MEW, or whatever), oil prices will drag us down. The expensiveness of oil at the time will define the speed of our decline. That’s my opinion.

$200 oil? Maybe, but let’s hope it takes a decade to get there.

[carlislematthew]

But which economists or investors share his view? Wall Street, the government, and the media is in denial, just as they were in denial about the stock market and housing bubbles.

One of the reasons that a lot of people ignore the “we’re running out of oil!” predictions is that they’ve been going on for about 100 years. I read in the Economist one time that this is (approx) the 6th time we’ve been “running out of oil”.

The Economist said that the problem isn’t a lack of oil, but where the oil is that’s the problem. So much of it is in the middle-east and it’s concentrated there. Certainly an issue, geo-politically, as we’re seeing right now.

We’ll never “run out of oil”. It will simply get expensive enough over time (with spikes and troughs) that alternatives will be demanded and will be commercially viable. Right now, the price is high enough for people like Toyota to truly innovate with their hybrid engines. 10 years ago that would have been stupid as Americans would have laughed at these silly little cars while pumping $1/gallon gasoline.

If oil/gas gets expensive enough (whatever that turns out to be) Americans will get over their issues with “nukular” power and start buying plug-in hybrids with all the fancy new battery technology we’ll be inventing over the coming years.

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