What Should Reporters Ask their “Experts”?

[powayseller]

Can you all help me make a list of questions that reporters should be asking when they interview bullish economists and realtors?

Remember that reporters are more like note takers than analysts, and most know less about business than your significant other who is not on this forum either. Reporters like to write, and they study journalism, not economics/finance, or the countless other subjects the report on.

Popular newspapers such as WSJ or Dallas Morning News can afford to hire experts in their field, such as a finance expert who prints the finance news. But our local newspapers cannot, and with declining readership they are probably keeping their budgets for salaries as low as possible.

Now, what are the questions that these reporters should be asking?

I’ll start:

About 80% of SD homes were refinanced and purchased in the last 3 years with loans that are adjusting soon. The number is $2 trillion of ARMs natinowide. How many of these loans were made in San Diego County, and how will tens of thousands of San Diegans afford making payments that will be 30-80% higher?

You say ARM and I/O loans are too small a number to affect the entire market, but 30K homes sold every year sets the price for the other 1 million homes. So even if only 30K sellers have to sell in 2007 because their ARMs adjust, that is a big deal because that is every single house on the MLS. That will reduce prices for the other 1 million homes. Any comment?

The biggest secret is that we now have a population exodus. The Census Bureau reported 44,000 people left for the inland empire, Riverside, and cheaper states, in the year ending June 2005. Realtors are reporting that sellers plan to leave and anecdotes abound from employers who are having trouble filling jobs because so many people left. Until 2004, 50K people per year moved here for a decade. Now this is reversed, and a full 30% of MLS listings are vacant. We were told that housing prices are high because everyone wants to live here, but this is no longer the case. How is this high vacancy rate and population exodus going to affect home prices?

Have you followed foreclosures? They are rising, and not just for new buyers, but for old buyers from the 1980’s who refinanced out their equity and now cannot pay the debts. What do you make of this?

Over 70% of new jobs in San Diego County since 2000 has been in construction, real estate, lending, and sectors such as retail and restaurants which benefitted from people spending their home equity. Tourism is benefitting from people nationwide liberating their equity. With so many builders now reporting a bleak outlook and construction slowing down, and homes sales down 30%, what do you foresee happening to those jobs? Why are we no longer hearing about SD as a booming high tech and biotech town? We’ve had Sony leave, and now Nokia is closing its plant. Which specific sectors will drive employment for San Diego going forward? Which companies, which jobs?

Government figures show $600 billion of MEW in the last year, and we are reaping the benefits. Christopher Thornburg of the UCLA Anderson School of Management says that when home prices stop rising, consumers can no longer withdraw equity from their homes to fund their consumption, business sales and state tax revenue will go down. How will Thornburg’s projected construction layoffs and sales tax revenue decline affect the SD economy?

Many realtors report home prices are back to 2005 or even 2004 levels in some cases. We have hundreds of homes that are sold for 10% -15% less than they were purchased for. How do you explain that the median is still rising?

[jimklinge]

Only one question of the experts.

When’s the last time you sold a house?

If they haven’t sold one in the last 12 months, their opinion should be questioned.

Unless they are on the street participating in what’s actually going on, they’re just guessing.

Jim the Realtor

[powayseller]

Often, the reporters do interview realtors, but they get so much BS! Realtors will say, “People want to live here, so they prices will keep rising”, or “They’re not making any more land so prices will never go down”, or “The economy is good so prices can’t drop”. I think realtors are worse than the economists in saying things which are simply not supported by the facts.

Now if they would interview you Jim, we’d get a straight story. Have you ever contacted a reporter? Perhaps you think it’s hopeless.

[jimklinge]

I’ve made an effort, though I don’t push it. You’ll see me quoted occasionally, but it’s usually the toned-down version.

Earlier this year a reporter for the North County Times told me he wouldn’t print the obvious trend of a changing market because “he was tired of being wrong all the time”.

The U-T could blow the top off this story, yet you don’t hear a peep out of them. I’m not sure it’s due to them wanting to protect their real estate advertisers. I think this whole world is more concerned with CYA than risking being bold and telling it the way it is.

Jim the Realtor

[waiting hawk]

Why is the RE industry so focused on rates?
Does anyone ever think about actually paying off the home anymore instead of the monthly payment?

My website tracking Temecula and South Riverside County

[powayseller]

Bob Visini, vice president of marketing at Loan Performance, LLC in the Bay Area, and Will Carless talked about the impact of resetting ARMs. Will concluded that “some 50 percent of money borrowed through mortgages in the region will be wrapped up in reset interest-only or negative-amortization loans by 2010…if home prices rise reasonably over that period — and lots of people think they will — many of those borrowers will be absolutely fine.” But what happens to those borrowers if home prices keep falling? Even if home prices stay flat or rise, what will be the impact on our economy when “the holders of at least a quarter of all the borrowed money for housing suddenly lose several thousand dollars a month in disposable income?” Look at what happened when gas prices rose, and multiply that several times over.

A long question, but it gives the reporter the background for the question, and she can choose to just ask the last sentence.

[sdduuuude]

Are you an expert at selling houses or an expert at anlyzing the future of the market?

Can you name 6 indicators that you look at to determine the future direction of the housing market – other than median price, sales and inventory?

[powayseller]

sduuuuuude, thanks. Can you elaborate, i.e. is there a certain answer you’re looking for?

[VCJIM]

“Dude, where did you get that jacket?”

[powayseller]

VCJIM, ??

I offered to send Ms. Wedner a list of questions, and her response:

Thanks for the offer to report my stories for me. But as a veteran, respected reporter, I prefer to do my own work. You should try to do some freelancing on this subject. You seem to have a great many sources and ideas and opinions—give it a try.

Diane Wedner

[VCJIM]

Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

Should wouldn’t even look at your questions? I think that’s a clever way to build bias into the media…fein ignorance by denying access to true information, or at least questions leading to true information. I HATE the media. HATE HATE HATE. Very few things in this world I truly despise; it’s one of them.

[rankandfile]

I think you’ve found your calling for a career, Powayseller- freelance writer. I think that a reporter should play devil’s advocate a bit more and ask more pointed questions that require a well thought out answer. Softball questions such as, “how does the housing market look to you?” and then not following that question up, doesn’t cut it IMHO. Here’s what a typical phone call might look like:

Ms. Wedner: So, Joe Economist, what’s your outlook on the housing market so far this summer?

Joe Economist: Well, I think that all indicators point to a leveling off in median price, but it’s nothing to panic about…we are just getting back to more normal market prices.

Ms. Wedner: But isn’t the median price considered an infererior indicator because it tends to lag behind true market conditions? And don’t you see some potential concerns with the increasing inventory of homes and the latest population figures from the US Census that show San Diego is actually losing people?

This is just an example of how a reporter can actually put a little elbow grease into it and dig for the scoop on a story, rather than just lob softballs. Keep in mind, I was able to come up with these questions in about 5 minutes, and I am a ham-and-egger when it comes to this stuff! Ms. Wedner is a business analyst and it is her JOB to do this! Is the LA Times hiring?

[sdduuuude]

powayseller –

My idea stems from the fact that they sometimes ask the right question of the wrong person. i.e. they talk to agents about their opinion of the future of the market, when in fact agents aren’t necessarily qualified to talk about that. They are qualified to talk about how to sell a house in today’s market.

Asking an expert what they have considered in their analysis of the market shows the extent to which they have analyzed the market.

My questions are intended to find the right expert to ask.

If someone says “The trend in the median price is up, so I predict it’ll go higher, they are a moron.” They have considered only the variable in question and don’t understand the cause and effect in the market.

If they say “I have considered the number of ARMS due to reset, Japanese monitary policy and its effects on interest rates, etc, etc.” then they understand the cause and effect of different issues and how they apply to the question at hand.

In my opinion, this is what makes Rich an expert.
He understands cause and effect in the market, not just graphs.

[Next in Line]

Hi all,

I’m new to this site so take it easy on me. Along the lines of what should reporters ask there expects…I think it would be helpful if wee could keep track of past news articles. To that effect I have a couple that quote LAY. What she said in the first article and her recent “turn” give some insight to her view of current market conditions.

Panelists see housing market slowing North County Times – North San Diego and Southwest Riverside County News – NCTimes_com – Californian_com.htm

Note the last paragraph in light of recent increases in inventory.

“Price increases will slow, and may even be flat in some areas of the state, said the speakers, including Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. However, they said, economic fundamentals state and nationwide appear strong enough to prevent a downturn. And San Diego County is likely to put in a solid performance, although there’s reason to worry down the road.

Nearly all the others speaking said emphatically that there is no real estate “bubble.” The lone dissenter was Alan Gin, a USD professor of economics —- but even he said he doesn’t think it’s going to burst now “or in the foreseeable future.”

“There is one thing you need to get declining prices —- just one —- you need too much supply,” Appleton-Young said. “You need more homes for sale than there are buyers.”

And of course her (LAY) latest take on the market…

Housing Expert ‘Soft Landing’ Off Mark – Los Angeles Times.htm

“The Realtors association last month lowered its 2006 sales prediction from a 2% slip to a 16.8% drop. That was when Appleton-Young first told the San Diego Union-Tribune that she didn’t feel comfortable any longer using “soft landing.”

“I’m sorry I ever made that comment,” she said Thursday. “When I get my new term, I’ll let you know.”

If there’s one group in California still unreservedly bullish on real estate, it might be the throngs lining up to take the licensing exams.

The state Department of Real Estate recently reported that the total number of agents in the state passed 500,000 in May for the first time. That’s one agent for every 55 adults in the state.

Appleton-Young had no qualms about predicting a hard landing here: “We’re expecting a fairly significant shakeout.”

The shakeout could be very ugly depending on how many transactions are not just bad business but illegal/ criminal. Unfortunately those stories won’t be newsworthy until people start losing their homes.

[rankandfile]

I applaud Ms. Appleton-Young for admitting her previous mistakes…which is not easy to do. I think she is starting to get a real grip on the ever-growing concerns that everyday people like us are having with housing here in SoCal. As for the other bullish economists, it’s at the point now where I almost feel sorry for them. They remind me of the desperate tobacco executives who denied until the very end that cigarette smoking was bad for one’s health.

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