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capeman
ParticipantI’m betting quite a bit when the imminent decline is over due to LBO and Hedge Fund unwinding. I’ll put money on a good 30%+.
ParticipantI’m betting quite a bit when the imminent decline is over due to LBO and Hedge Fund unwinding. I’ll put money on a good 30%+.
ParticipantLooks like the markets may actually be starting to see it too.
ParticipantLooks like the markets may actually be starting to see it too.
ParticipantYeah but if the after hours pricing on Amazon is in it’s near term future then as the economy goes I will short the hell out of AMZN. All time highs in this environment with P/E of 120+ is ripe for correction of the aggressive kind.
ParticipantYeah but if the after hours pricing on Amazon is in it’s near term future then as the economy goes I will short the hell out of AMZN. All time highs in this environment with P/E of 120+ is ripe for correction of the aggressive kind.
ParticipantKeep an eye on the KBH puts too.. I bought some 20s quite a bit out of the money, and they're up just a little over 100% in the last 3 trading days.
Yeah, amazingly my KBH Jan 10s arose from the dead today by doubling. Couldn't believe that one. I haven't taken my CFCs off of the table yet but I will keep a close eye on them in the morning. I just wish Stop limit orders were effective with options but no luck. I believe that CFC is on the high speed train down to 20 but we'll see what kind of bandaid the bulls try to put over the obviously ailing market tomorrow.
ParticipantKeep an eye on the KBH puts too.. I bought some 20s quite a bit out of the money, and they're up just a little over 100% in the last 3 trading days.
Yeah, amazingly my KBH Jan 10s arose from the dead today by doubling. Couldn't believe that one. I haven't taken my CFCs off of the table yet but I will keep a close eye on them in the morning. I just wish Stop limit orders were effective with options but no luck. I believe that CFC is on the high speed train down to 20 but we'll see what kind of bandaid the bulls try to put over the obviously ailing market tomorrow.
ParticipantI would have to disagree with that. The Fed is heavily obligated to control not the price but the stability of the dollar. Right now the DX is at 80.08 and falling. There is a serious breaking point at 80.00 and the dollar would likely spiral out of control if it breaks 80 causing a whole host of problems including hyperinflation, real interest rate increase on a large scale and a depression the likes of which has never been seen. Controlling stability of the currency is likely the Fed’s top priority unless they want to see equity’s tank and revolution to occur.
ParticipantI would have to disagree with that. The Fed is heavily obligated to control not the price but the stability of the dollar. Right now the DX is at 80.08 and falling. There is a serious breaking point at 80.00 and the dollar would likely spiral out of control if it breaks 80 causing a whole host of problems including hyperinflation, real interest rate increase on a large scale and a depression the likes of which has never been seen. Controlling stability of the currency is likely the Fed’s top priority unless they want to see equity’s tank and revolution to occur.
ParticipantYeah, I’m lovin the August 32.50 puts I bought yesterday. The BSC puts are performing favorably as well. This could very well be the day the indexes begin to collapse.
ParticipantYeah, I’m lovin the August 32.50 puts I bought yesterday. The BSC puts are performing favorably as well. This could very well be the day the indexes begin to collapse.
ParticipantI can appreciate what you guys are saying that "This time may be a little different" and "San Diego is a desirable place to live." That all can be true but the numbers don't lie. The argument here and the argument in all housing (minus the help belligerently large credit availability) is affordability. The numbers… affordable payment of 1000sqft condo is say ~$2500 a month. At a currently conservative rate of $500 per sqft that condo will cost you 500k. Considering good credit and a whoppingly unlikely down payment of 100k your 400k loan 30yr at 7% will cost you $2661 per month not including HOA , Uncle Sam's yearly cut, insurance, etc. Seeing that I'm not expecting average Joe to have 100k for a down payment this whole scenario is highly unlikely in the first place.
Secondly with the credit market going down the toilet at a beyond historical rate, interest rates north of 10% are not at all unexpected in the next couple of years. Let's take a nice doubling (14%) as a round number that is not out of the question. Shooting for the same number as a payment in this environment gets you a 200k loan considering the 100k cash is still in your account for a down payment after dealing with high interest credit card and auto loan payments. That right there is a 40% decline in price due to affordability and ~$300 per sq ft. $2600 plus taxes, HOAs and associated costs is quite steep for 1000sq ft. With my pretty respectable family income and having an actual family to put in there that is an undesirable cost/benefit living scenario anyways and is still likely to be well above the rental costs on the same small condo in that environment. All one has to do is take a look at the ABX to see that higher real rates are coming and they will come with a vengence. That will likely knock Chuckie First-Time Home buyer (and likely family starter) away from paying anywhere near current pricing on a small place like that.
ParticipantI can appreciate what you guys are saying that "This time may be a little different" and "San Diego is a desirable place to live." That all can be true but the numbers don't lie. The argument here and the argument in all housing (minus the help belligerently large credit availability) is affordability. The numbers… affordable payment of 1000sqft condo is say ~$2500 a month. At a currently conservative rate of $500 per sqft that condo will cost you 500k. Considering good credit and a whoppingly unlikely down payment of 100k your 400k loan 30yr at 7% will cost you $2661 per month not including HOA , Uncle Sam's yearly cut, insurance, etc. Seeing that I'm not expecting average Joe to have 100k for a down payment this whole scenario is highly unlikely in the first place.
Secondly with the credit market going down the toilet at a beyond historical rate, interest rates north of 10% are not at all unexpected in the next couple of years. Let's take a nice doubling (14%) as a round number that is not out of the question. Shooting for the same number as a payment in this environment gets you a 200k loan considering the 100k cash is still in your account for a down payment after dealing with high interest credit card and auto loan payments. That right there is a 40% decline in price due to affordability and ~$300 per sq ft. $2600 plus taxes, HOAs and associated costs is quite steep for 1000sq ft. With my pretty respectable family income and having an actual family to put in there that is an undesirable cost/benefit living scenario anyways and is still likely to be well above the rental costs on the same small condo in that environment. All one has to do is take a look at the ABX to see that higher real rates are coming and they will come with a vengence. That will likely knock Chuckie First-Time Home buyer (and likely family starter) away from paying anywhere near current pricing on a small place like that.
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