[capeman]

If you base your life decisions on a blog site then you have worse problems to deal with.

Don't base your decisions on any one site or person (i.e. realtors, loan writers, etc.) Dig around everywhere, talk to the locals, read many sites/articles/analysts reviews and put it all together to see if it makes sense. You have all the time in the world to decide on buying a house or not. You do not have the luxury of time when deciding if you got hosed. Patience is one thing the market has not had in the last 5 years. That is what drove a lot of the psychology and madness that got it so out of whack. Rational thought is what tell you if your timing is smart money investing.

 

cheers,

 

chris

[capeman]

If you base your life decisions on a blog site then you have worse problems to deal with.

Don't base your decisions on any one site or person (i.e. realtors, loan writers, etc.) Dig around everywhere, talk to the locals, read many sites/articles/analysts reviews and put it all together to see if it makes sense. You have all the time in the world to decide on buying a house or not. You do not have the luxury of time when deciding if you got hosed. Patience is one thing the market has not had in the last 5 years. That is what drove a lot of the psychology and madness that got it so out of whack. Rational thought is what tell you if your timing is smart money investing.

 

cheers,

 

chris

[capeman]

I would love that! The house prices would drop a literal ton. Then buy and enjoy a huge mortgage deduction for a while until rates go low again when you can responsibly refi and shave years off of the payoff and at the same time keep or lower the payment. My parents did that and are only about 6-7 years away from payoff.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

I would love that! The house prices would drop a literal ton. Then buy and enjoy a huge mortgage deduction for a while until rates go low again when you can responsibly refi and shave years off of the payoff and at the same time keep or lower the payment. My parents did that and are only about 6-7 years away from payoff.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

My friend, I have no desire to live in 4S ranch as my parents live there and I don’t believe it will carry the charm it has now in about 10 years. My interest is purely inquisitive and scientific. I have been very curious about this area specifically since I watched each development go up. I’ve watched people sell houses for 250% over what they were 7 years ago. You don’t need a crystal ball to make predictions off of that.

If you think that that kind of short term gain is based on sound fundamentals then by all means go for it. Just please keep us updated yearly as my scientific mind is very interested in case studies. 7-10 years is not the most sound advice based on the unequaled growth the market has seen. You should bank on being stuck in the house for 10-15 based on historicals from like market boom/busts cycles in Japan and such.

I personally am looking to buy in the coastal area close to where I work and the wherewithall is not an issue. It’s a matter of getting the most for my money and not losing my hard-earned equity investment. That is called smart money investing.

As for your argument about having no data or facts to back up such arguments I don’t think you are a regular to this site. The data has been laid out and it does not point to a bottom. Predicting the bottom of any market has proven to be an near-impossible feat for even the best analysts. If I were you I would not be making such predictions based on inventory tracking. As we have seen in the past 2 years those levels can increase very rapidly and lacking the liquidity of other markets those stats can hit you in the bum very quickly. If you choose to buy then best of luck and enjoy your house to its fullest but for the benefit of the rest of us please keep us updated on the outcome of your case-study. We are all very interested.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

My friend, I have no desire to live in 4S ranch as my parents live there and I don’t believe it will carry the charm it has now in about 10 years. My interest is purely inquisitive and scientific. I have been very curious about this area specifically since I watched each development go up. I’ve watched people sell houses for 250% over what they were 7 years ago. You don’t need a crystal ball to make predictions off of that.

If you think that that kind of short term gain is based on sound fundamentals then by all means go for it. Just please keep us updated yearly as my scientific mind is very interested in case studies. 7-10 years is not the most sound advice based on the unequaled growth the market has seen. You should bank on being stuck in the house for 10-15 based on historicals from like market boom/busts cycles in Japan and such.

I personally am looking to buy in the coastal area close to where I work and the wherewithall is not an issue. It’s a matter of getting the most for my money and not losing my hard-earned equity investment. That is called smart money investing.

As for your argument about having no data or facts to back up such arguments I don’t think you are a regular to this site. The data has been laid out and it does not point to a bottom. Predicting the bottom of any market has proven to be an near-impossible feat for even the best analysts. If I were you I would not be making such predictions based on inventory tracking. As we have seen in the past 2 years those levels can increase very rapidly and lacking the liquidity of other markets those stats can hit you in the bum very quickly. If you choose to buy then best of luck and enjoy your house to its fullest but for the benefit of the rest of us please keep us updated on the outcome of your case-study. We are all very interested.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

4S was created during the boom and pushed up most heavily by speculation. Having it’s creation and overall pricing dictated by rationale not tied to economic or basic fundamentals it is a near-perfect micro-model. What happens there should directly correlate to the health and direction the overall SD market will go in the next 3-10 years. Being a lifer in San Diego and seeing what pricing is like from the great ranges of mortgage rates we’ve seen historically one should keep an eye on the 10year bond. It’s been popping lately and more popping will destroy pricing power in the near term and force price cuts. We may see the market begin to play out rather quickly.

The broad range of 20-60% I predict is due to the possible changes in the economic environment. If salaries increase at a fast rate in the next couple of years the housing may not go down much to meet with fundamentals. If the overall earning power of Americans vs. inflation continues to decrease as it has and interest rates continue to rise then 60% would not be out of the question.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

4S was created during the boom and pushed up most heavily by speculation. Having it’s creation and overall pricing dictated by rationale not tied to economic or basic fundamentals it is a near-perfect micro-model. What happens there should directly correlate to the health and direction the overall SD market will go in the next 3-10 years. Being a lifer in San Diego and seeing what pricing is like from the great ranges of mortgage rates we’ve seen historically one should keep an eye on the 10year bond. It’s been popping lately and more popping will destroy pricing power in the near term and force price cuts. We may see the market begin to play out rather quickly.

The broad range of 20-60% I predict is due to the possible changes in the economic environment. If salaries increase at a fast rate in the next couple of years the housing may not go down much to meet with fundamentals. If the overall earning power of Americans vs. inflation continues to decrease as it has and interest rates continue to rise then 60% would not be out of the question.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

Honestly it is good that you asked this question before finalizing the deal. My parents live in 4S and bought in ’99 so I am not worried about them losing their arses. I have spent a lot of time there on my parents balcony when almost all of 4S was just a big dirt ball. It has all gone up and been sold during the housing bull run and is going to be the perfect example of how a whole community can be destroyed by an asset bubble popping. I don’t see anything but that whole area going down 20-60% in the near term and if you want to be able to get out of the house at some point the best way to do it is to not get into one in the first place. I would rent in the area and watch things play out. Losing 10k upfront is much more palatable then erasing a 20% deposit and being stuck in a depreciated but nice-looking prison for 15 years. As a lifer in San Diego and one who saw 4S grow from the drawing board to what it is I say stay away until it has dropped at least 30% or 2-3 years has passed.

chris

[capeman]

Honestly it is good that you asked this question before finalizing the deal. My parents live in 4S and bought in ’99 so I am not worried about them losing their arses. I have spent a lot of time there on my parents balcony when almost all of 4S was just a big dirt ball. It has all gone up and been sold during the housing bull run and is going to be the perfect example of how a whole community can be destroyed by an asset bubble popping. I don’t see anything but that whole area going down 20-60% in the near term and if you want to be able to get out of the house at some point the best way to do it is to not get into one in the first place. I would rent in the area and watch things play out. Losing 10k upfront is much more palatable then erasing a 20% deposit and being stuck in a depreciated but nice-looking prison for 15 years. As a lifer in San Diego and one who saw 4S grow from the drawing board to what it is I say stay away until it has dropped at least 30% or 2-3 years has passed.

chris

[capeman]

Normally I would agree with that but with the major currencies (Dollar and Yen) at the tipping point of spiraling downward. With that in mind, gold is what people tend to flock to for security during such times.

Here's a good article…

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-5/2007/02/09/

Gold really is a hedge against inflation. When commodities become stocks and hedge funds become stocks and stocks become a kind of public currency for wealth building, gold trails them from a distance, sometimes jumping ahead a block or two, but always near by. It watches bemusedly as people measure their new wealth in the latest currency du jour.

Gold, which has always been and will always be money, has seen this show a thousand times before. It knows how it always ends. The assets which have inflated the egos, expectations, and bank accounts of the newly duped eventually collapse in deflationary spiral. The supply of the new currency- whether its dollars or shares-eventually becomes so large and divorced from demand, and real economic value, that it becomes worthless.

And a better one…

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-price-9/2007/05/09/#more-902

“Gold never really ‘goes up.’ It simply holds its value while the values of other things are collapsing due to inflation and currency devaluation. Many times, in the 1960s or 1990s for example, it is the most useless of assets, sitting inert and generating no income. In inflationary periods, this inertness of value is gold’s most admirable quality.

 

[capeman]

Normally I would agree with that but with the major currencies (Dollar and Yen) at the tipping point of spiraling downward. With that in mind, gold is what people tend to flock to for security during such times.

Here's a good article…

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-5/2007/02/09/

Gold really is a hedge against inflation. When commodities become stocks and hedge funds become stocks and stocks become a kind of public currency for wealth building, gold trails them from a distance, sometimes jumping ahead a block or two, but always near by. It watches bemusedly as people measure their new wealth in the latest currency du jour.

Gold, which has always been and will always be money, has seen this show a thousand times before. It knows how it always ends. The assets which have inflated the egos, expectations, and bank accounts of the newly duped eventually collapse in deflationary spiral. The supply of the new currency- whether its dollars or shares-eventually becomes so large and divorced from demand, and real economic value, that it becomes worthless.

And a better one…

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-price-9/2007/05/09/#more-902

“Gold never really ‘goes up.’ It simply holds its value while the values of other things are collapsing due to inflation and currency devaluation. Many times, in the 1960s or 1990s for example, it is the most useless of assets, sitting inert and generating no income. In inflationary periods, this inertness of value is gold’s most admirable quality.

 

[capeman]

With the way the dollar looks to be going in the next couple of years I’d buy gold. If not then probably park it in Euros.

[capeman]

With the way the dollar looks to be going in the next couple of years I’d buy gold. If not then probably park it in Euros.

[capeman]

Nice! There’s going to be a lot of owners in the area pissed at those comps. Good for him though. He lives there for 10-15 years and he’ll be lovin it while those around him are just starting to knick into their principle. At that point he can make some nice upward moves.

[Author]

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