[capeman]

Yeah but with that density it is tough to beat the candypersquarefootage they have there at Halloween. It’s a trick-or-treater’s heaven… and yes at 29 I did partake with the little one’s. The A.W.E.S.o.M-O costume worked well.

[capeman]

YOY median prices have quite an effect on the psychology of the local market. It’s that piece of data that helped people justify pulling out equity over and over. It helped make them believe that THEIR houses were really worth 3x more than 6 years earlier. Now with data like this coming out the psychology should really begin to break down.

I don’t believe in the median as a valid number in and of itself but the trending pattern of that number tends to trend with overall home prices.

[capeman]

It is kind of amusing to me to see that everyone acknowledges that a lowering of gas prices is the equivalent of a “tax cut to increase spending”. At the same time nobody is making the association of when gas prices tend to go down and what the real reason may be. If you take a look at this CNN article…

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/30/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm

they are pegging the trough in prices at around Thanksgiving right? That happens to be the start of the largest commercial holiday season when consumer spending is essential to economic growth. What a coincidence. Didn’t gas prices make a similar and unexplained decline during Nov/Dec. last year not long after Katrina supposedly greatly helped them increase? (Right, and how many refineries were really taken out by that?)

An interesting tint to this year is that prices seem to be beginning their expected decline right before midterm elections? Another coincidence? What about the fact that the current administration created the largest increase in oil dependence since the 60s by allowing everyone and his brother to write off gas guzzling SUVS essentially promoting them over all other automobiles. It kind of makes the gas prices seem more like a seeded economic buffer to a future expected decline in economic growth. If 2005 was the overall peak of the housing bubble and the home builders knew it by insider selling and the government knew it and promoted energy market manipulation then overall pricing metrics could have been planned. That allows the obvious bed-buddies (oil companies) to the administration to charge pretty much what they pleased while never crossing a hypothetical threshold of a gas price that would be fatal to the economy ($4 hypothetically). In return spending and growth is buffered while everyone’s big ticket ATM (home equity) and discretionary spending is starting to dry up. In order for folks to get to work from the distant burbs (the only place they could afford a home) they NEED to fill the guzzlers they bought causing gas to be 10% of all consumer spending for the last half year. At the same time the bed-buddies post the largest revenues for any corporations in the history of the world!

I’m not really anti-establishment but I do think if this theory is correct that I am very impressed with how it all works. Market manipulation, seeding ulta-mass-consumption, kicking back to the friends of the family (oil companies) and the overall perfect timing of all three could very well see the economy decline subtly and smoothly to next year before the expected BIG drop. That’s post essential commercial holiday and midterm election and some brilliant economics at work if it is the case.

There is a short quote in this CNN article by an analyst who says plainly…

“The levels that were in place were never justified to begin with,” said Mark Gilman, an analyst with The Benchmark Co. “This is a bit of a return to reality.”

Sounds like another market I’ve heard a lot about lately…

[capeman]

“Does anybody find it surprising that the PITI number corresponds to what the payment is with exotic loans?”

That has to mean the absolute peak for squeezing the last drops of juice out of the lemon. I’m very interested to see if the psychological aspect of the bubble will cause a neutral weightless effect on sales. There should be a momentary point of ultimate historical all-time low sales (towards 0 but obviously not really 0 sales) bringing on the major velocity of price shedding in the local market. What do you think?

[capeman]

Anybody want to offer up a wager with this guy? Maybe everyone pitch in for a pot that he gets if prices drop less than 20% in the next two years vs. he loses and leaves his post. It’s a sure win for us and sadly a loss for everyone who signs up for a house and loses the traditional 20% equity put or is underwater 20% by following his base-less optimism.

[capeman]

Subpar?! I grew up there and I’d have to agree with you on that one. Houses there are about 60% overpriced in my opinion just for the heat and 15 traffic and the fact that the Metaphor cafe somehow keeps hanging around.

[capeman]

Hide the profits! If she resents you being successful then likely she’s going to try to take the success if she leaves! Porn won’t do much for you in the long run but if you want to see what’s really going on just make for yourself a few more successes. If there’s more resentment then you may be in the presence of a succubus. Sorry I’m no real help!

If she resents you though you have to get her to buy into the ideas like they were really hers so that way the success belongs to both of you. Maybe that will help… and if everything goes south at least you’re not stuck in a home you can’t get out of.

[Author]

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