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Bubblesitter
ParticipantLook at the date of the Gallup Poll…..Oct 2011.
I wonder what the poll would show if it was taken today. Post Newtown.
NRA botched the Newtown response and now viewed by many as in the pocket of gun manufacturers.
I’ve always been pro 2nd amendment, even was member of NRA a few years back. Semi-automatic modern AR-15 class weapons should be closely regulated.
ParticipantSan Diego housing market will also be dinged when the government teet starts running dry. Government employees and government contractors make up decent sized segment of the SD labor market. Not sure of the local vs Fed breakdown, but DoD has to be at increased risk of layoffs given upcoming fiscal debt ceiling fight,
It looks like house Republicans are gonna bring it to the brink to force major spending cuts, with default and government shut down risk higher.
Republicans are focused on entitlement cuts, but defense cuts may come into larger play as democrats seek to preserve some of social programs.
IMHO both will get cut.
I talked with good amigo who is civilian DoD employee in DC area, they are all getting nervous and the DoD contractors are getting in near panic mode, they will be the first to go,
A good career strategy by those in the government, is a revolving door strategy. During the fat times you work as contractor with elevated salary. There is implicit understanding that with that higher salary there is reduced job security. As times get bad those contractors with make a rush to govt positions to wait out the leaner times and continue to suckle for a few years.
He was telling me that many of them do actually joke about the breast feeding analogy. I remember hearing similar stuff when I was working in DC area a while back.
ParticipantThe “Beltway Bandits” aka contractors are gonna be in for a much tougher ride in next few years, along with Fed government employees.
As budgets retrench, or get slashed many of the contractors now are making desperate attempts to secure government positions which are relatively safer. The revolving door is alive and well. The problem is that even those “safe” positions are now at increased risk of RIFs ( reduction in force). With over 1/2 million people with some security clearances in greater DC area, this has traditionally provided some level of job security, however this time it may be different.
They have been on feeding frenzy among DC contractors for the last 11 years.
Well, the government teet is drying up. The regional economy has to be impacted.
There was a similar thing in the late 80s early 90s as there was cold war draw down. I witnessed this first hand in DC.
ParticipantTake care out there spdrun, I was was watching the news out last night, some folks are really hit hard out there. Whole neighborhoods destroyed out there, i’m gonna make a donation to the relief efforts. There is big fund raiser on National TV tonight with the Boss and others.
Yes fundamental supply problem also some refineries out of commission and probably some logistics and transportation issues, some of the news I was hearing was that there were bunch of stations that had full underground gas tanks were still closed due to no power for pumps.
I wonder if it makes sense to have prepositioned in metropolitan areas a strategic gas reserve, sorta like the srategic oil reserve but on liocal level. May not be practical storing gas for extended period. Anyhow, just thinking.
My bro forwarded me a interesting story about how vulnerable our national electric grid is. Not only is it vulnerable to cyberattack but also Solar super storms. The probability of this blackswan event is much higher than I thought, with power to big swathes of US out for months and $Trillion dollar hit to economy.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/04/us-solar-superstorm-idUSBRE8721K820120804
ParticipantI’m sure you guys will the first to grumble about waiting hours in long lines to fill your tanks after the next earthquake or (fill in your disaster de jour)
I suppose if you fully believe in the free market, enlightened gas station owners who made the investment to put in the backup generator should be able to recoup it by price gouging during emergencies. I”m actually ok with that.
ParticipantWow…..the east coast was really hit hard with Sandy.
I’m reassessing my general disaster preparedness this week.
Extended power outages really causes a lot of pain. I’m gonna be getting some quotes for a natural gas backup generator.
Every natural disaster you see the same thing……long lines at gas stations. Not because of lack of gas, but due to no power to the pumps.
Gas stations should be mandated to have back up gas generators to power the pumps
ParticipantSanctions are taking a bite already will big drop in Iranian oil exports, they are filling up all their storage capacity. They have to continue to pump because oil rigs are damaged if you stop production.
[quote=Bubblesitter]The geopolitical oil wildcard is now in play this year.
US just signed into law very tough sanctions targeting the Iranian Central bank, making it much more difficult for Iran to sell oil.
Last week the EU also imposed tough sanctions, curtailing Iranian Oil purchases.
Iran is threating US Navy in Straits of Hormuz, and warning Arab nations not to “fill the gap” in reduced global supplies. Charges and counter charges of covert war, assasinations and assasination attempts.
The EU and US sanctions really start taking a bite in about 6 months, during peak summer driving season.
Iranians may not have much to lose by trying to block Strait of Hormuz, if they can’t sell much oil anyway.
Will an oil shock put US in recession? How will it ripple thru economy? Housing impact?
It will be an interesting year in Oil geopolitics, may impact us all.
Bubblesitter[/quote]
ParticipantThe pressure on Iran seems to be ratcheting up in recent weeks, even tighter sanctions. Bad cop Obama trying to be bested by even Badder cop Romney. Romney essentially giving Isreal the green light to go after Iranian nukes.
All this may induce Iran back to the bargaining table, but with all the military hardware now in the Persian Gulf, the chances of rapid escalation is higher now.
Still holding on to bunch of non-mideast oil, and oil services companies as a hedge.
If shit hits the fan, at least these may rise as rest of portfolio tanks as we head into oil shock induced recession.
Bubblesitter
June 2, 2012 at 8:42 AM in reply to: OT: Is it really that bad out there for fresh grad attorneys? #744834ParticipantThere is currently a big glut of lawyers in the market. It is especially tough for recent grads with huge student loan debts. There were too many people entering the profession and simple supply and demand is driving the market. In addition there has been big advances in discovery Software and other tools that make first year associates even less valuable.
The profession is no longer a surefire way to get rich.
Do the profession if you want to help people (or causes), don’t do it to get rich. I have the highest respect for Public Defenders and Prosecutors. I just saw the old movie To Kill a Mockingbird, wow what a classic.
June 2, 2012 at 8:42 AM in reply to: OT: Is it really that bad out there for fresh grad attorneys? #744833ParticipantThere is currently a big glut of lawyers in the market. It is especially tough for recent grads with huge student loan debts. There were too many people entering the profession and simple supply and demand is driving the market. In addition there has been big advances in discovery Software and other tools that make first year associates even less valuable.
The profession is no longer a surefire way to get rich.
Do the profession if you want to help people (or causes), don’t do it to get rich. I have the highest respect for Public Defenders and Prosecutors. I just saw the old movie To Kill a Mockingbird, wow what a classic.
ParticipantNavyDoc,
Very nice…..Im green with envy.ah….to have a basement. I had one in my last house back east. I think man caves are more prevalent out east. You certainly have more sq footage, I’ve seen huge finished basements before. I have an amigo with must be 2000 sq ft of basement. Most of it finished
ParticipantNavyDoc,
Very nice…..Im green with envy.ah….to have a basement. I had one in my last house back east. I think man caves are more prevalent out east. You certainly have more sq footage, I’ve seen huge finished basements before. I have an amigo with must be 2000 sq ft of basement. Most of it finished
ParticipantSvelte, niccceeee
Walterwhite,
weeeiirrddd, but different strokes for different folks.I’m wondering if mancave enhances the value of a house. As women are the predominant decision makers in home purchases, may not so much. I guess it depends on the degree of customization. i suppose a litely decorated man cave that is easily converted to other use may stir the thoughts of propective buyers into their own man cave ideas.
Im liking the idea of a wine cave, humidor. But of course all that work may go to nought when I downsize and put on the market.
ParticipantHere’s better link…..amazing
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