[Bubblesitter]

Bubblesitter has officially declared July 18 as the peak of of this cyclical Bull market.

Stay tuned when Bubblesitter makes a similar announcement identifying the bottom of the real estate market. Be patient, it will be a few years.

Note, for entertainment purposes only 😉

[Bubblesitter]

I’ve watched Cramer for years, I usually take him with a grain of salt. He is certainly entertaining with his hyperbolic rants. However, this time he seemed to have a different demeanor. 100% defaults on the 2/28s is a stretch, but it will likely be in the high double digits, especially in areas of 20% depreciation. Walking will seem like an attractive option.

[Bubblesitter]

I’ve watched Cramer for years, I usually take him with a grain of salt. He is certainly entertaining with his hyperbolic rants. However, this time he seemed to have a different demeanor. 100% defaults on the 2/28s is a stretch, but it will likely be in the high double digits, especially in areas of 20% depreciation. Walking will seem like an attractive option.

[Bubblesitter]

Hunker down…gonna be an interesting ride for all of us.
It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall street next week. Consumer sentiment and spending is still high, however this may not last long. All the lead stories on national news networks seem to be stocks slide and real estate problems. Will this result in a reverse wealth effect? Consumer spending is accounts for >75%+ of economy. I’m sure that someday I’ll again be bullish on both real estate and the stock market. Certain sectors will probably continue to thrive and some Hedge funds have made big bets against housing and are making a killing now.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

Hunker down…gonna be an interesting ride for all of us.
It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall street next week. Consumer sentiment and spending is still high, however this may not last long. All the lead stories on national news networks seem to be stocks slide and real estate problems. Will this result in a reverse wealth effect? Consumer spending is accounts for >75%+ of economy. I’m sure that someday I’ll again be bullish on both real estate and the stock market. Certain sectors will probably continue to thrive and some Hedge funds have made big bets against housing and are making a killing now.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

Yes, watch out for those news spinners. Most industries especially housing are seasonal, that is why Y-o-Y (year-over-Year) sales is the key number.

e.g. ACME Flowers issued a press relese today. Flower sales jump 400% January to Feb! An incredible rise in sales from January. News update: ACME Flowers Stock tumbled on analyst downgrade, and after reports that their market share saw a substantial decrease during this year’s busy Valentine’s day season.

This is yet another example of lazy reporting, relying on a single biased source, and honing in on an incorrect number.

[Bubblesitter]

Raiding the 401K is generally not a good idea. With taxes and early withdraw penalty you wouldn’t even clear you 100k out of 130K. 401K loans are also generally a bad idea, with compounding effects you stand to lose out years down the road. Are you counting on a company pension, social security to keep you solvent in your golden years? I personally don’t want to be eating cat food in a run down 1 BR apt with loud neighbors upstairs keeping me up at night. At 29, you have done a great job at retirement savings. I don’t know too many 29yr olds who have a decent retirement fund started.

Paying all cash (or very large down payment) will have its benefits 2-3 years down the road. Who knows where interest rates will be. We are still near historic lows. As the cost of borrowing (interest rates) go up and credit standards tighten, housing pricing will likely take a further hit.

There is nothing wrong with having a mortgage. There are good mortgages and bad. Just get one that is affordable and un-creative. Personally I don’t like interest rate risk on mortgages so I prefer a 30 year fixed. Last house I had was 30 year fixed, but I only kept it for 6 years. In hindsight, a 7 year ARM may have been better idea, but again I don’t like interest rate risk. We may be seeing large rate increases and bouts of severe inflation in coming years. Those who locked in low rates with 30 year fixed will be happy they did. Those with ARMS will be waiting with dread for their resets, unable to refinance into 30 yr fixed due to drops in their house value.

[Bubblesitter]

Any buyer into Bressi ranch should be fully aware of the considerable issues with aircraft noise pollution. Click on Bressi ranch link.

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[Bubblesitter]

I agree that the % of bubble sitters is likely very low in the San Diego market. It would be interesting to see an economic profile of renters in SD market, perhaps a good research topic for an econ student. The topic might even have enough depth for an Economics PhD dissertation. Any survey done should have strong methodologies, e.g. unbiased questions, adequate sample size with random sampling. There’s alot of work required to get good data and to make conclusions that can be backed up. Of course, real estate has a big emotional element that is intangible. These intangibles keep the dismal science interesting. The one thing that we all seem to agree on this site is that incomes are out of whack with house prices, and we at high risk for moderate price declines.

But hey, I’m just preaching to the choir here, after all this site is about the SoCal housing bubble. Signing off on this forum, a good discussion. It was the first time that I’ve posted anything on this piggington site, I’ve been vicariously reading in recent months.

[Bubblesitter]

Job change, company relocated me out here. Sold my house in another high priced market. I moved with intention of renting, learning the area, waiting out the bubble. I see a number of other folks doing similar things, many recent hires in my company are also playing waiting game. These are highly educated folks making > six figures. Many are also waiting because because they simply can’t afford the market.

I think that this data point offer a glimmer of hope for the long term real estate market in SD. Although there may be net outflow of people from San Diego, the ones that do come here may tend to be higher salaried, higher educated. When the SoCal Real estate market bottoms out in 2-5 years, we can all get back on the real estate rollercoaster here in SoCal.

[Bubblesitter]

Here’s my story. I’m a new renter after selling my house back in Feb. I have a good job in a stable industry. So far renting is working out pretty good. I found a decent 3BR house with nice yard in very nice neighborhood on North coast of San Diego. Rent is probably about $2500 less than any mortgage+taxes+HOA+Mello-Roos+HO Insurance+Maintenance+gardener, etc. I’m investing the difference and socking away max into 401K/IRA and trying to save for my kid’s college fund. I’m also trying to save enough for a huge downpayment when I’m ready to buy again.

This SoCal real estate market scares me!

I have a one year old, and I plan to rent for next 3-5 years, or until I feel that the market has sufficiently corrected itself. I’ve got a good 4 years until junior goes to school. I may be a unique situation, but I feel that you truly have to be nuts to purchase real estate in SoCal now. All the economic data seems to be pointing to a sustained slump similar to early 80s or early-mid 90s.

Great forum here. I think that the Union-tribune and other mainstream media quotes too may “industry experts” who happen to have a conflict of interest, e.g. Realtors, CAR, NAR, etc. These guys have lost credibilty in my eyes by pumping up the bubble in the first place and now hawking “soft landing”.

Also I don’t hold Mortgage industry in high regard, they extended too much easy credit and also played a big part in pumping the bubble.

Anyhow, my 2 cents.

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