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barnaby33ParticipantNo, but there are lots of finance companies that until recently were hiring the tech people that the tech companies were laying off for years.
Is there any more news about Nokia?
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantYou probably didn’t sell that many if you sold them as lamas, llamas however thats a whole other animal!
To link back to one of the professors analysis pieces interest rates have risen by 40% or so since last year. That means given the same financing schemes people can afford 40% less house. I actually don’t think demand has fallen 40% quite yet so as I see it, demand really is still outpacing rising interest rates though at this point just barely.
As many have said many times, it takes the market participants a while to digest these changes and to curb behaviour accordingly.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantI would actually argue that Rio is not a nice place, but thats just me. Niteroi is nicer and safer (somewhat).
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantWho says they love downtown? Most people I know wouldn’t ever live there, and they are DINK’s and Yuppies. I MIGHT live there for bit as an investment, but come on. Its everything SD isn’t.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantWow look at you two go! Remember PS I said two paragraphs I meant it. Cooper, you weren’t at the meet so I’ll assume my proverbial wisdom, and yes its proverbial didn’t get passed to you.
The internet is short attention span theatre, when you attempt to wite long posts, you lose people. This is only important as a function of your desire to A)make a point and B)convince or enlighten people as to your point. Your willingness to write long posts directly implies your desire to influence others.
I don’t know how long you have been reading this site, but the civility, lack there-of seems to flow in waves. Sometimes PS does go off the deep end, mostly she provides research that the rest of us are far too lazy to do.
I tend to agree with bugs, its not the analysis thats the problem, its the attending lack of civility in discourse.
As to the argument over Alan Gin, RE is more than a bit risky at this point. To not be publicly and loudly saying so is to be either a hypocrite, stupid, or a liar. There are VERY real consequences to what is happening, I know I have lived through them before. When you hear people who have a bully pulpit not using it honestly then you have a right to call them on it. The more mis-leading they are, they more vigorous your call-out should be.
Damn I went over 2 paragraphs, I am such a hypocrite, too stupid to get it right. Besides my whole post was a lie anyway.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantYes we do, I personally will accept responsibility for our slacki-ness. Since I have had half a bottle of MARE-LOW, its alot easier. Something is missing, oh yes the inflated rental value. I knew there was a hole in there somewhere!
Everytime someone gives you a series of calcs you attack the assumptions its based on, so let me do the same. It doesn’t really rent for that much, (Bare with me though). Since I have had the aforementioned MARE-LOW I am not in a math mood, but since you are, you can pick an arbitrary number at which it is cheaper to own then rent. That way no matter what its a win for owning.
One more thing. The oppportunity cost of 120k, not 12 at 7% amortized over lets say 10 years is 241,159.37. Thats alot of freedom you just nailed into an asset for which there is an extremely compelling series of arguments for not buying.
Do you have 120k to gamble like that, I know I don’t.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantIts not that San Diego is such a great cost of doing business locale. Its that they(companies) can find qualified people here. Thats much harder to do in Dallas. Gateway moved here simply because they couldn’t attract ANY top talent in South Dakota.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantSo Bugs, where were you? It was very nice to meet people, but it just felt like something was missing, or someone…..
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantThank you John. Did you have to do this analysis by hand? If you have a spread sheet, or other electronic format, I could perhaps help you automate it.
Josh
July 21, 2006 at 10:33 PM in reply to: Why I predict a 55% nominal price drop in North County #29232barnaby33ParticipantBecause there are alot of them. Borrow 10k from the bank, its your problem. Borrow 10 million its the banks problem.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantI actually had a constructive thought for once. I have said alot of times that RE is just the most interesting facet of the global credit glut. In times past when one part of our country was in recession people would move to another part. That is excepting the great depression, the last worldwide recession, people move to escape the effects of recession to areas that are more economically stable.
If this phenomenon is global, then the reaction will be global. People running from CA to say Amarillo will be no better off, despite having taken a chunk of equity with them. Then still be in a recession and most likely unable to get a job. How many people actually made enough on their house to buy another house free and clear, and stuck money away for a rainy day.
That makes the coming fall seem all the worse, because in the 90’s people were cutting out of SD and going other places. This time where will they run?
Random 3rd party: I do say ol chap, you sound just a tad to apocalyptic, can’t you lighten up?
Me: Why no sir. Ever since I lost my job and my insurance run out, I can’t afford the psychotropic meds that keep me stable, I’m forced to read piggington instead.
Random 3rd party: Dear lord! You mean to say that piggington is a substitute for proper medication, what is this world coming to?
Me: Dunno, but let me chew on your leg for a bit, while I think about it!Josh
barnaby33ParticipantJust remember PS, I’m kind and sweet on the inside, plus I have a great personality!
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantI think the, “small penis,” comment was what he meant by harsh. I’ll admit it was. Thats because to me that house, whether in Carslbad or Amarillo represents the same thing. Wanton ruthless conspicuous consumption. The Mormon tabernacle choir doesn’t need that much house. Its all about look how much I can consume, Hence the penis size reference. I stand by it, it was meant to be harsh.
On top of which you came to a board which is founded on the premise of a real estate bubble. To your credit you aren’t denying it, just trying to ride the wave, however….
People on this board aren’t equity locusts. Most if not all of us are trying to figure out how to stay here, not leave. So your thinking in terms of marketing isn’t fundamentally sound.
I will give you credit for sticking around and attempting to answer some of the jibes with facts, but the facts we are interested in are the ones you either cannot or will not answer.
On top of which even attempting to compare SoCal with the Texas panhandle is a flight of fancy at best. You may not be willing to trade and have said as much, but the VAST majority of humanity is, so in an absolute sense this is a much better place.
Its really a shame you have a vested interest in selling that house, Otherwise you MIGHT be able to take step back and realize what a vile monstrosity it is. A town with a median household income around 40k has no business building McMansions like that, especially what its main attraction is that it is in an area that is less grossly overvalued then where you are selling.
Keep up the optimism! Its sound business advice, but I wouldn’t recommend pecker checking potential buyers. They probably won’t like it.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantThat place is a scary looking dump. I imagine it being an albatross around somebody’s neck quite soon. Is there a single job in Amarillo which would pay well enough to afford that monster? Harder to fathom still, if there is would that person be mentally unhinged enough to buy that place?
Wow that is just mind blowingly ugly. I think at its most visceral level the reaction I get is TINY PENIS, extremely tiny.
Josh
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