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barnaby33ParticipantInternet chat boards are anonymous. I’ll wager though that there are several dozen people who post here who have met me at the two meet’n’greets. Civility is a matter of perspective.
Telling your girlfriend she looks fine when she is overweight is considered civil by some, but not by me its dishonest. Perhaps my tone was harsh; I felt it needed to be to accurately get across the message that what blackbox was saying wasn’t just wrong it was dangerous.
We live in unprecedented times, but thats true of almost every age. Whats different now is that the generation that understands debt deflation is now almost completely gone. All we are left with are the spendiest generation ever and the next two as adults. We don’t have a complete roadmap for the turmoil set in motion but certain things have become very obvious (if you chose to ignore them don’t expect me to be civil about it.)
Most important is that we are entering a period of global instability. In its first phase globalization was a force for stability, but it allowed the US and Europe to export instability and unsustainable practices. Now those practices in the form of inflation through credit creation are coming back to haunt us. Whether or not you are an inflationist like Rich, or a deflationist like myself, both can safely agree that instability is on the rise sharply. a qoute I read today somes it up nicely, “Every day there are 3 or 4 events that would have made front page of the WSJ 7 months ago.”
For most people, who have jobs away from the internet, this instability means huge losses coming in formerly stable investments. Dollar cost averaging and investing in mutual funds has worked and may work again once we are done with this period of instability. Currently however it should be consigned to the same rubbish heap as, “real estate only goes up.” I say this because its part and parcel of a mindset that somehow things will turn out ok in the end. The huge dislocations in our public equity markets are saying that just ain’t so.
Its only an asset as long as someone else will pay you for it, otherwise its a liability.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantInternet chat boards are anonymous. I’ll wager though that there are several dozen people who post here who have met me at the two meet’n’greets. Civility is a matter of perspective.
Telling your girlfriend she looks fine when she is overweight is considered civil by some, but not by me its dishonest. Perhaps my tone was harsh; I felt it needed to be to accurately get across the message that what blackbox was saying wasn’t just wrong it was dangerous.
We live in unprecedented times, but thats true of almost every age. Whats different now is that the generation that understands debt deflation is now almost completely gone. All we are left with are the spendiest generation ever and the next two as adults. We don’t have a complete roadmap for the turmoil set in motion but certain things have become very obvious (if you chose to ignore them don’t expect me to be civil about it.)
Most important is that we are entering a period of global instability. In its first phase globalization was a force for stability, but it allowed the US and Europe to export instability and unsustainable practices. Now those practices in the form of inflation through credit creation are coming back to haunt us. Whether or not you are an inflationist like Rich, or a deflationist like myself, both can safely agree that instability is on the rise sharply. a qoute I read today somes it up nicely, “Every day there are 3 or 4 events that would have made front page of the WSJ 7 months ago.”
For most people, who have jobs away from the internet, this instability means huge losses coming in formerly stable investments. Dollar cost averaging and investing in mutual funds has worked and may work again once we are done with this period of instability. Currently however it should be consigned to the same rubbish heap as, “real estate only goes up.” I say this because its part and parcel of a mindset that somehow things will turn out ok in the end. The huge dislocations in our public equity markets are saying that just ain’t so.
Its only an asset as long as someone else will pay you for it, otherwise its a liability.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantPlease post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.
Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.
I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.
All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.
As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.
All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.
barnaby33ParticipantPlease post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.
Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.
I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.
All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.
As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.
All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.
barnaby33ParticipantPlease post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.
Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.
I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.
All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.
As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.
All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.
barnaby33ParticipantPlease post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.
Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.
I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.
All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.
As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.
All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.
barnaby33ParticipantPlease post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.
Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.
I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.
All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.
As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.
All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.
barnaby33ParticipantBlackBox, no what you did was give out typically glib bullish advice and then offer yourself a universal out clause. Its the same spineless crap spun on CNBC and just about as worthless. Everybody needs money thats the whole point of investing. You show me a human being who endlessly puts money into the stock market and never has need to withdraw, for major expenses, I’d like to meet that person. He was either very lucky, or earned huge sums and lived way below his means.
We are in a bear market the rallies will be vicious though short. We will not exit the bear market until faith in the credit markets has been restored. Since the Fed has shown its hand, that being of chief enabler of the banks to hide the sausage, there is no way we are exiting it soon. Regardless of soon or not the end result is sharply lower equity markets.
For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.
In bear markets return of capital trumps return on capital.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantBlackBox, no what you did was give out typically glib bullish advice and then offer yourself a universal out clause. Its the same spineless crap spun on CNBC and just about as worthless. Everybody needs money thats the whole point of investing. You show me a human being who endlessly puts money into the stock market and never has need to withdraw, for major expenses, I’d like to meet that person. He was either very lucky, or earned huge sums and lived way below his means.
We are in a bear market the rallies will be vicious though short. We will not exit the bear market until faith in the credit markets has been restored. Since the Fed has shown its hand, that being of chief enabler of the banks to hide the sausage, there is no way we are exiting it soon. Regardless of soon or not the end result is sharply lower equity markets.
For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.
In bear markets return of capital trumps return on capital.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantBlackBox, no what you did was give out typically glib bullish advice and then offer yourself a universal out clause. Its the same spineless crap spun on CNBC and just about as worthless. Everybody needs money thats the whole point of investing. You show me a human being who endlessly puts money into the stock market and never has need to withdraw, for major expenses, I’d like to meet that person. He was either very lucky, or earned huge sums and lived way below his means.
We are in a bear market the rallies will be vicious though short. We will not exit the bear market until faith in the credit markets has been restored. Since the Fed has shown its hand, that being of chief enabler of the banks to hide the sausage, there is no way we are exiting it soon. Regardless of soon or not the end result is sharply lower equity markets.
For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.
In bear markets return of capital trumps return on capital.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantBlackBox, no what you did was give out typically glib bullish advice and then offer yourself a universal out clause. Its the same spineless crap spun on CNBC and just about as worthless. Everybody needs money thats the whole point of investing. You show me a human being who endlessly puts money into the stock market and never has need to withdraw, for major expenses, I’d like to meet that person. He was either very lucky, or earned huge sums and lived way below his means.
We are in a bear market the rallies will be vicious though short. We will not exit the bear market until faith in the credit markets has been restored. Since the Fed has shown its hand, that being of chief enabler of the banks to hide the sausage, there is no way we are exiting it soon. Regardless of soon or not the end result is sharply lower equity markets.
For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.
In bear markets return of capital trumps return on capital.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantBlackBox, no what you did was give out typically glib bullish advice and then offer yourself a universal out clause. Its the same spineless crap spun on CNBC and just about as worthless. Everybody needs money thats the whole point of investing. You show me a human being who endlessly puts money into the stock market and never has need to withdraw, for major expenses, I’d like to meet that person. He was either very lucky, or earned huge sums and lived way below his means.
We are in a bear market the rallies will be vicious though short. We will not exit the bear market until faith in the credit markets has been restored. Since the Fed has shown its hand, that being of chief enabler of the banks to hide the sausage, there is no way we are exiting it soon. Regardless of soon or not the end result is sharply lower equity markets.
For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.
In bear markets return of capital trumps return on capital.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantEvery bear needs a bull to make money off of. Today was brutal no doubt about that. Its a bear market, no doubt about that. These Fed induced rallies tend to last a week or two. I’ll wait a couple of days then load back up on puts and ultra shorts, no doubt about that.
Its good to be a contrarian, but only if its fact based. In your average recession equities lose 30% of their value (per Karl on Ticker Forum.) This will be no average recession. Its already astonishing at the speed of the collapse. Encouraging people to go long even via dollar cost averaging at this point is beyond stupid. Might as well buy real estate, you are lighting money on fire either way. Most of us don’t have “decades” to save as we will need that money for various things at various points in our lives. Buying a house, paying for children and or medical expenses come to mind.
What the Fed is doing has just created another sucker rally, caviat emptor.
Josh
barnaby33ParticipantEvery bear needs a bull to make money off of. Today was brutal no doubt about that. Its a bear market, no doubt about that. These Fed induced rallies tend to last a week or two. I’ll wait a couple of days then load back up on puts and ultra shorts, no doubt about that.
Its good to be a contrarian, but only if its fact based. In your average recession equities lose 30% of their value (per Karl on Ticker Forum.) This will be no average recession. Its already astonishing at the speed of the collapse. Encouraging people to go long even via dollar cost averaging at this point is beyond stupid. Might as well buy real estate, you are lighting money on fire either way. Most of us don’t have “decades” to save as we will need that money for various things at various points in our lives. Buying a house, paying for children and or medical expenses come to mind.
What the Fed is doing has just created another sucker rally, caviat emptor.
Josh
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