Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Arraya
Participant[quote=briansd1]
Arraya, I find your positions interesting but contradictory.
There are so many points, that I don’t know we to begin.
If I understand you well, you’re saying that the “limits of the natural world” ensure that our capitalist system is unsustainable. Perhaps you’re right. [/quote]
Correct. “Limits to growth” was written in 1972.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_GrowthOr as Tainter describes in “The collapse of complex societies” capitalism is a “runway train” due to its growth requirement
http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/index.php/The_Collapse_of_Complex_SocietiesThis time the collapse is not of an empire but as a world economic system – the capitalist world-system.
The greatest historian alive today, Immanuel Wallerstein.
Can these divisions on the left be overcome in the next five to ten years? I am not sure. But if they are not, I do not believe the world left can win the battle of the next twenty to forty years over what kind of successor system we shall have as the capitalist system collapses definitively.Keep in mind capitalist growth is not the same as development. Though, development will usually fall under the umbrella of growth
[quote=briansd1]But, surely, if you believe that we have reached the limits of the natural world, you couldn’t be concerned with something as insignificant as the money and debts that humans created?[/quote]
The are both interrelated. The human abstraction drives the physical world. Limits to energy, specifically oil, restrict growth and hence make the mountain of debt unpayable – the basis of all work is energy. This is not to say there are not other ways to create energy – but the market-system will never push a transition. It will just make things worse.
Also, limits to the natural world does not necessarily imply “not enough”. It means the the parabolic increase in production of critical natural resources will stop or has in many cases. Though, there is a school of thought pushing the old Malthusian overpopulation thesis. Though, that is not even close to what is transpiring.
[quote=briansd1]Money just a way of trading that we conjured up. Can’t some kind of modified system be conjured up that will keep trade and industry moving?[/quote]
Sure – though society would operate under much different rules and have different, as Marx would put it, social relations.
Sadly, people can easily imagine the “end of the world” but not the end of capitalism
ParticipantMore PROFITABLE “terrorist” preventing measures that come, coincidentally and conveniently , at a time when revolutionary urges or as James Madison wrote “Leveling impulses”start stirring.
As an aside, Drones are seducing the ruling class with a sense of invulnerability, which can be believed only by turning a blind eye to long-term consequences.
When an Afghani’s entire family disappears in a fireball that errupts at his uncle’s funeral, he will not simply accept the omnipotence of his overlords. He will fight back. But it makes no sense to fight a drone; it will not make any difference whatsoever if a drone is destroyed. A drone is soulless, it has no family, it does not bleed, it does not hurt. The target of his hatred will be Americans, where they live.
The only rational response to a drone attack is to blow some one or some thing up — somewhere far away from the scene of the attack. Escalated terrorism is the rational response to drone attacks, and drone attacks will be the response to terrorism.
There are some who see no problem with this, and they are the ones benefiting from “terrorism” fighting measures that double as uprising prevention .
Participant“Overspending” is necessaery to keep the growth requirement at acceptable levels. Which is way debt levels of individuals, corporations, municipalities and nations have all skyrocketed over the past few decades from historical norms. It’s systemic.
Though it may be a bit heavy for some, it must be stated; capitalism is reaching its endgame. The growth requirement which capitalism has built into itself is now colliding headlong with the limits of the natural world, which provides all of the raw stock required by industry; coupled with an unpayable mountain of debt. Like an organism undergoing ketosis, the system is beginning to devour itself for sustenance. Governments create imaginary capital to patch over privately created black holes of debt, while financial institutions feast on the accumulated “wealth” of the poorer strata of western society by mechanisms like foreclosure, stagnant wages, increasing tuitions, increasing interest payments, layoffs, and every other conceivable and now commonplace “austerity measure.”
It is this amalgam of symptoms of collapse that the people of the “first” world are now experiencing. Of course, these first-worlders have lived on the backs of exploited peoples, for generations, all too happy to consume to their heart’s content in a drunken orgy of self-righteous hedonism. (In their defense, the masters of capital did scar these people at birth with the brand of consumption, bombarding them day and night with self defeating advertisements and a ceaseless campaign of pro-authoritarian propaganda.)
Now that the maw of imperial capitalism is fixing itself upon the white people of the first world, now that a future of more luxury and entitlement is not a guarantee, there is a revelation to the true nature of the culture appearing to those willing to see it.
ParticipantWe are at peak debt and it’s not going to be pretty.
Participant[quote=flu]Remember I made the statement a few weeks back about how if the dow breaks 12,500 and stays there, people would be happier and you won’t hear much from the OWS protestors again?
Well? Was I right?
The headlines aren’t screaming about OWS anymore, are they? No sir, everyone’s talking about Greece (which no one really cares about anymore, even as the austerity measures pass today), and about the pending Facebook IPO and the election headlines…
OWS is dead.
:([/quote]
No attention from the MSM, sure – dead? From all accounts it’s bigger and more motivated than ever – though, changing form and global. I highly doubt the completely manufactured equities bubble will hold for long.
I’ll repeat;
” * The financial model of growth in the developed world has run its course and financial assets will be significantly reduced in value over the next few years.
* Systematic intermittent deleveraging will lead to persistently high unemployment and widespread poverty.
* Societal institutions or systems that rely on financial stability will continue to deteriorate at an accelerating pace (education, healthcare, etc.).
* States running large fiscal deficits to support their private economies will quickly slide into insolvency and default on ambitious promises to their citizens.
* Housing, food and energy will become unaffordable for millions of people as wealth in the form of revenues, investments and savings is rapidly destroyed, and short-term speculative plays in the commodity space fueled by central bank liquidity will only make this dynamic worse.
And finally,
* Political institutions or systems that have exercised power during the unprecedented financial boom will come under an equally unprecedented societal pressure and will most likely be overhauled or completely dismantled”
This is the early state of the revolution. Very early. OWS is just a thought convention at this point and coalescing place for all activist.
Ahhh, late-stage capitalism is going to be fun
http://occupywallst.org/article/election-or-not-revolutionary-wave-grows/
In a world devastated by poverty, austerity cuts, and bank foreclosures, community action like Occupy Oakland’s recent attempt to turn a derelict building into a vibrant social center for the needs of the 99% should be applauded. Instead, the agents of the 1%, in this case the Oakland police – already under investigation for excessive force – once again attacked. Using flash bang grenades, projectiles, batons, tear-gas, and other weapons, police arrested over 400, bringing total US Occupy-related arrests to over 6,300. As the Occupy Oakland Media Committee said:
“With all the problems in our city, should preventing activists from putting a vacant building to better use be their highest priority? Was it worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars they spent?”
Earlier this month, we celebrated 2011 and declared 2012 would be even bigger. One month in, we’re keeping our word, but the corporate media increasingly dismiss Occupy Wall Street as a dying movement. Covering events in Oakland (“Police use teargas on Occupy Oakland protesters”), the Guardian described OWS as “largely dormant lately.” The Washington Post stated that the Oakland protest had broken the “lull” in OWS.
But we aren’t dormant; we’re escalating. The only lull has been in the media coverage of our continuing struggle to create a more just world for all.
Let’s take a closer look by examining a few of the major Occupy stories and actions of the past month that the corporate media would rather dismiss than cover by debunking their myths about OWS…
Battle of Oakland
*Yes some protesters were hamming it up for the camera when the police were “kettling” them. Though, overall a well-produced “on-the-ground” piece
ParticipantIs calling for the collapse of capitalism bearish or bullish?
ParticipantMoney supply HAS TO expand infinitely or the whole thing collapses. Contradictorally, it will collapse on top of itself, if it keeps expanding.
[quote]We may have to wait for the European contagion to clear before we have our day of reckonoging[/quote]
Yes – though, I don’t think it will clear but spread to the US(the “market” is focused on Europe now and it is not very forward thinking or rational and is easilty tricked). Then deflation comes via panic, the dollar will skyrocket and gold bugs will beg for printing. Until that plays out THEN the dollar dies – it will be, maybe, a decade or so.
ParticipantThe economy is not getting better per se though peoples delusion about future economic prospects is increasing aka confidence – which actually does bolster economic activity(for a short time). The wave of confidence will all turn at once. I take this thread as a contrarian indicator. We must be nearing a top again.
February 6, 2012 at 12:25 AM in reply to: January 2012 Employment Report: A Ruse? Please help me understand! #737390Participant[quote=paramount]Thank you in advance. I am completely confused; were the employment numbers reported on Friday good or not?[/quote]
The answer is; Who cares if the markets liked them. As long as the “market” is happy and fed injections of cash from time to time everything should be A ok
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]I don’t put a timeframe on it because it’s impossible to put a timeframe on it. The reason it’s impossible to put a timeframe on it is that it comes down to psychology: when will the herd change direction and lose confidence? I just don’t think such things can be timed. They happen when they happen. i don’t agree with your premise (as I read it) that if you can’t put a timeframe on something it’s not worth talking about. It’s worth knowing something is likely to happen so that you can prepare for it, even if you don’t know exactly when it might happen.[/quote]
No doubt, psychology plays a HUGE role. But, really it’s just psychology catching up to the rotten underlying real fundamentals that dictate that sufficient growth is not going to materialize to wipe the debt problems away. I suppose it could go for more than a decade but I doubt it. I think peak oil dynamics will push it along in less than a decade.
ParticipantNo debt crisis until deflation runs it’s course – which should come in waves. I’d put the whole cycle to be complete in about a decade. Things could spiral out of control with cascading banking failures in a relatively short period of time, though. It’s a very fragile system. Regardless, all roads lead to the dollar system going away at some point. How that will play out nobody can predict – but it will be interesting. The cool things is, we all get to witness it in our lifetimes.
ParticipantDiscussions about Iran are relevant to economic forecasting. An attack on Iran would send oil to the fucking moon. And the price of oil is the achilles heel to global industrial capitalism. If anything could fully implode the debt bomb it would be an sustained oil spike. I think like 300 per barrel would take like 20% of the global GDP. What would $9 per gallon gas do to RE? Above $120 we go into recession.
I can only imagine the discussions going on behind the scenes about attacking Iran. IMO, Iran is not a physical threat to anybody. They are however a threat in other ways.
Participant[quote=briansd1]
CA renter really needs to accept that the pensions evaporated with the economic crash. There is nowhere to get that money from but from an economic rebound and recovery in asset prices, or higher taxes on everybody.[/quote]
Yes and deflation would obliterate those pensions.
December 31, 2011 at 7:06 PM in reply to: OT – Who will run for President on the Republican side? #735292ParticipantOf course a “free market” is predicated on the assumption that a market system is some sort of natural state. Anthropological record shows that the “market exchange” as opposed to reciprocity or redistribution was an extreme minority social relation up until about 400 years ago. Markets first showed up around Aristotle’s Greece. Though – at that point it was a very tiny part of society.
Capitalism was the institutionalization of the market system as dominant social relationship. Paradoxically free markets were forced on people for centuries. Meaning, people were forced into the capitalist money market for survival.
In modern market economies the needs of the market determine social behaviour, whereas in pre-industrial and primitive economies the needs of society determine economic behaviour.
-
AuthorPosts
