[an]

You can’t buy it for $460k but unless you work in Menifee as well, you’ll be paying between 400-500/month in gas. Not to consider the many hours you spend in trafic, which either you can spend w/ your family or work overtime, I think it’s not that simple to compare one to one. I’d rather spend more in SD for a similar house that’s w/in 5-10 min from work than buy it for 460k in Menifee. Can you drive 10 min to the beach in Menifee? There’s a reason it’s cheap. You don’t have to go as far as Menifee to get cheap house, You can get a 3000sq-ft house on a 22k sq-ft lot in Vista for $599k right now. You’re still w/in 20 from the beach.

On second thought, that $460k house will cost you around $3000/month. I can rent a house that size for around $3k/month that’s w/in 5 min of work and be w/in 10 min of the beach. Tell me which is smarter?

[an]

Wow, that’s about 10% off the asking price. Do you think it would make sense for people who really want to buy right now to start their offer much lower and work their way up, like 15-20% below list price?

[an]

Thanks for the inside info. This makes total sense. Like you, no one else really know for sure what will happen. We’ll just have to wait and see. Hopefully by then, the prime selling season is over and people who are just testing the market will go away and the one that’s left needs to sell. Hopefully, they’ll readjust their listing price to it’s true price and volume will pick up and DOM will go down. Low volume flattening price = top, volume pick up and decreasing price = going down the back side of the curve.

[an]

I agree. Only time will tell. No mater how confident some one is about their arguement, it’s still just an educated guess. In 5 years, we will know for sure who’s right and who’s wrong. Until then, I’ll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

[an]

I don’t get your logic. Why is 990k in Summer 05 not a peak when it’s higher than late 04? Doesn’t peak = the highest point? Regardless whether the owner over paid or under paid, the price sold is the only data we have and the only one that matter. If we’re not on the way down, you probably wouldn’t say he/she over paid.

[an]

Wow, that’s much more than I imagined. I know people in the low range in SD that drop from 160k to 120k. I guess the high end tend to drop more?

[an]

I think a fixed fee structure would make more sense. So instead of 6%, which is equal to $30k for a $500k house and $60k for million dolar house, how about a fixed $20k-$30k. I’m pretty sure the agent doesn’t work 2x as hard for a million $ homes.

[an]

If inflation is raging, interest rates would also be sky high. If rates is sky high, housing price has to be lower to keep payment the same. So it doesn’t really matter I don’t think. Also, that’s the chances of our income rising drastically anytime soon? With the pressure from out sourcing, we’d be lucky to have a steady 3-4% raise.

[an]

Base on a 3% appreciation a year, i.e. inflation, the bottom I would think should be between 30-35% above 1997-98 price. So your 225k target is very reasonable and I think that’s within 10% of the absolute bottom. But all this is just guess work. Only time will tell how this whole thing will play out. Like the graph Rich had w/ price/income ratio. It will reach equilibrium some day.

[an]

I stop putting too much thoughts into these median numbers. To me, they’re there to convince people who haven’t been following the market closely. I’ve been follow SFH in Mira Mesa, Scripps Ranch, RPQ, Carmel Mt, Poway, and RB under $600k. Zip Realty is a great too. Compare to the similar size house last year, I see at least 10-15% drop in asking price. Houses that used to list for 560k now list between 480k and 500k. These house are in area with practically no yard, so there’s no real lot premium. Since there are several for sale at once, it’s not just an anomoly.

[an]

I wonder what will be the next date that realtors will use to tell the seller to wait for? First, it’s super bowl, then after tax. The spring they’re waiting for is late and doesn’t seem to be coming. How will they continue to spin this after the summer ends.

[an]

I wish there’s a place that collect and plot data of $/sq-ft. I think that is alot more useful than just pure price.

[an]

If it’s as bad as you say it is, I think you can find much better place for around that price and around that area. For 1850, you can probably find either newer, < 10yrs, houses with about 1400sq-ft.

[an]

How much is your rent? How big is the place? The bigger it is, the closer you get to $1/sq-ft, especially in PQ. I’ve been looking recently, and just found a place in Sorrento Valley. It came out to $1.30/sq-ft for a 1610sq-ft townhouse. Right now, there’s a 1650sq-ft house in Mira Mesa, it’s going for $1950. The house is pretty new. So bottom line is, do your research and compare. If it turns out you’re paying more than fair market, then you can just move, else just accept the 8% incrase.

[an]

That’s exactly it:
–wait for the fundamentals to adjust…

One way or another, fundamentals will take place. Either hyperinflation and income rise like crazy, or real estate price will fall like crazy. I don’t care how it happen, all I know is it will happen.

[Author]

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