[an]

It sure look, feel, and smell like it did 4 years ago.

[an]

It sure look, feel, and smell like it did 4 years ago.

[an]

I don’t know about most people but for myself, when I buy, I’m not locked into a size range but rather a price range. So, lets say I’m looking to buy in the $500k range. 2006, that would fetch me a 1500 sq-ft house. But in 2007, that 1500 sq-ft house is now $450k and the 2000 sq-ft house is now $500k. I wouldn’t be buying that 1500 sq-ft house for $450k but rather the 2000 sq-ft house for $500k. The point is that, median won’t be dropping very much because people like me don’t decrease their price range, they just get bigger better house at the same price range they’ve been looking in for the last several years.

[an]

I don’t know about most people but for myself, when I buy, I’m not locked into a size range but rather a price range. So, lets say I’m looking to buy in the $500k range. 2006, that would fetch me a 1500 sq-ft house. But in 2007, that 1500 sq-ft house is now $450k and the 2000 sq-ft house is now $500k. I wouldn’t be buying that 1500 sq-ft house for $450k but rather the 2000 sq-ft house for $500k. The point is that, median won’t be dropping very much because people like me don’t decrease their price range, they just get bigger better house at the same price range they’ve been looking in for the last several years.

[an]

I don’t know about most of you on here, but for me, if I can afford a $4.5M house, I’d definitely go custom. Find the plot of land in the exact location I want with the size I want and build the house of my dream. Buying the land for $3M, and build a 3-5000 sq-ft house for the other $1.5M is what I’d do. I’ve been in several multi-million $ homes and there’s one thing or another that I’d change if it was my house. When dropping $4.5M on a house, I want to to be perfect. Only custom home can give me that.

[an]

“You should snap it up @ about $300K in a year or two.”
That’s such an open ended statement. $300k would be considered expensive to me if rates goes up to 10%.

[an]

jimmyle, I’ve been watching this house and many others chase the market down as well. It not surprising to me anymore. I still see plenty others coming on the market with wishful pricing. Personally, at today’s rate of @ around 6.25% for a 30 year fixed, I wouldn’t buy this house for more than $450k. This house can probably fetch around $2400/month in rent, & @ $450k and interest rate of 6.25%, you’re looking at around $2400/month for just interest.

Of course, this calculation wouldn’t hold if interest rate goes up. That’s the question you have to ask yourself Jimmy, do you think rates will go up? If you say yes, then the future price will go that much lower. Just an example of how much lower: for apple to apple comparison, IF fundamental is $2400/month in interest, and if rates goes up to 8.25%, price would have to drop to around $350k to maintain the same monthly payment.

Don’t catch a falling knife if you don’t have to. Based on your income and the $ you have to down for the house, you’d have to get a jumbo loan. Lets assume a jumbo rate is @ 8.25%, can you afford a $3400/month payment and still live comfortably?

Here’s another house in Mira Mesa with similar square footage & lot size: 9219 Pebblestone Ln, 92126. It’s a short sale that chase the market down from $625,000-$675,000 in June of this year and it’s asking for $545,000 to $555,000 now.

[an]

“If those rates hold constant and rents rise enough to meet average home prices say in 2 years, incomes will still be too low to support those prices.”

That would definitely be an interesting situation. Rent goes way up and income stay flat. That might be a perfect storm for massive out migration.

[an]

tg, that’s the main reason I mentioned those 2 names. When both camps are saying inflation and high interest rate, I listen very carefully.

Regarding home price, I still think, regardless of what happen to the interest rate over the next several year, we’ll return back to fundamental and probably will undershoot on the way down just as it overshoot on the way up. Fundamental to me is rent. So, when my monthly mortgage make sense compare to renting a similar place, then it would be a logical time for me to buy and hold for a long long time. So if rates goes to double digits, I wouldn’t counting out returning to mid 90s price unless wage inflation also adjust with goods inflation. Which would then bring up the rent and we might not see any drop in RE price at all, but then we all would be making $200k, so a $500k house doesn’t look so expensive anymore.

[an]

“…would you really get your advice from a blog?”

I definitely take every blogger’s opinion w/ a bag of salt :-). Especially those with drastic views, either perma-bulls or perma-bears. But when a guy who predicted a lot of this problem, Peter Schiff, and Greenspan both predicted high inflation, I’d definitely listen. I think inflation will make HI salary look relatively cheap for foreign companies.

[an]

stockstradr, good luck to you on DUG. That is if you’re still holding your short position. It must hurt a little getting a 5.7% haircut. DUG seems to broke the all time low of 42ish set in July. It’ll be interesting to see where the market will go from here after the 50 points cut.

[an]

new on market seems much higher w/ this update than the past. It seems to be around mid-teens, now, it’s low 20s. Could it be seller on the fence, hoping things will pick up finally gave up and jump in?

[an]

Raybyrnes, with your logic, houses will be free eventually.

[an]

Raybyrnes, I guess you know me better than I know myself.

“You can keep trying.”

I will. Thank goodness I now have your permission.

[an]

I’m a first time home buyer and I have to disagree with you Raybyrnes. Maybe it’s just me but I see if I invest 6 months worth of time into getting one accepted low ball at 10-20% off a $500k house, that’s a saving of $50-$100k tax free. That’s not considering that $50-100k in saving on the principle would mean $100-200k saving if you include the interests you don’t have to pay over 30 years. Most people would be happy making that much after tax in their regular job. I’m already clipping coupons, saving as much as I can and getting ready to make my move. I’m also working hard to improve my career. But that does not mean I don’t have spare time. Being on here shows we both have spare time to kill and that spare time can end up making me $50-100k+. A penny saved is a penny earned. That’s my motto.

I’d be happy with a relatively low price with high interest.

[Author]

Posts