September Sales Numbers

[XBoxBoy]

DQNews has released their september sales data, and it sure ain’t pretty.

For all southland, Sales down 29.9% from last month, down 48.5% from last year. Ouch!!!

http://dqnews.com/RRSCA1007.shtm

[Diego Mamani]

At -56%, San Bernardino is not much worse than the So Cal average of -48.5%. I was expecting worse pain in the Inland Empire.

Thank you for the link. I remember now the many times in 2006 when the NAR and CAR said we had “reached bottom.” It was laughable then , but now, I’m LMFAO!!

[mixxalot]

But prices not falling much

I am baffled as to why prices have not yet tanked in southern california market. Who are the idiots still buying?

[little lady]

They got hammered! The median price dropped quite a little,(I know it is not a good example-but it did)people are waking up!

[little lady]

They got hammered! The median price dropped quite a little,(I know it is not a good example-but it did)people are waking up!

[Diego Mamani]

Prices have not yet tanked.

Note that the reported median is not the midpoint of all house prices. Instead, the median is the midpoint of houses that actually closed escrow. In difficult times, the houses that tend to sell are the nicer ones. Therefore, the 2006 median reflects nicer houses, on average, than those sold in 2005, and the 2007 median pertains to even nicer (bigger, newer, etc.) houses than those in 2006. No wonder the median doesn’t drop as much.

That said, house prices are known to be sticky on the way down. Sellers become emotional and unrealistic and end up losing money chasing the market down, or waiting for a rebound. All this pain would go away faster if sellers apply this rule: if you don’t have to sell, then don’t; but if you do sell, then drop price enough so that it sells in 30 days or less.

[Diego Mamani]

Prices have not yet tanked.

Note that the reported median is not the midpoint of all house prices. Instead, the median is the midpoint of houses that actually closed escrow. In difficult times, the houses that tend to sell are the nicer ones. Therefore, the 2006 median reflects nicer houses, on average, than those sold in 2005, and the 2007 median pertains to even nicer (bigger, newer, etc.) houses than those in 2006. No wonder the median doesn’t drop as much.

That said, house prices are known to be sticky on the way down. Sellers become emotional and unrealistic and end up losing money chasing the market down, or waiting for a rebound. All this pain would go away faster if sellers apply this rule: if you don’t have to sell, then don’t; but if you do sell, then drop price enough so that it sells in 30 days or less.

[mixxalot]

But prices not falling much

I am baffled as to why prices have not yet tanked in southern california market. Who are the idiots still buying?

[desmond]

I’m LMFAO!!

Does everybody on this site have a fat ass?

[an]

I don’t know about most people but for myself, when I buy, I’m not locked into a size range but rather a price range. So, lets say I’m looking to buy in the $500k range. 2006, that would fetch me a 1500 sq-ft house. But in 2007, that 1500 sq-ft house is now $450k and the 2000 sq-ft house is now $500k. I wouldn’t be buying that 1500 sq-ft house for $450k but rather the 2000 sq-ft house for $500k. The point is that, median won’t be dropping very much because people like me don’t decrease their price range, they just get bigger better house at the same price range they’ve been looking in for the last several years.

[vizcaya]

I agree with asianautica. My limit on a home was based on getting the biggest nicest home in a very good area. My income allowed for a $300K mortage(30yr fixed). I had the 20% for a downpayment. So I searched for homes in the 400K-420k range. Early 2007, I found that the only homes available were 1200sq ft homes for $400k in these nicer areas. I almost bought at this time. Now homes in this area are averaging $430K for homes 2200-2500sqft. I shop acording to what my price range is.

[betting on fall]

If you look closer at the San Diego numbers at the U-T link, you’ll see that for “South County” the median dropped 20% and total sales dropped 50%.

That is already a housing crash and I don’t see anything stopping it from falling more.

[Ex-SD]

The general public, at large, are like dinosaurs. When you kick them in the butt, they will turn their head and say, “what happened”(?) a year later. It’s just now starting to sink in the brains of many people that if they wait, they will get a much lower price for a home in CA. All of the news media has finally homed in on this story and people are turning their heads and saying, “so that’s what’s happening” in the real estate market. There will always be “knife catchers” who are impulsive buyers and will continue to buy over the next few years but the number of people who can qualify for a loan in CA has shrunk dramatically and out of that pool, more are getting educated and starting to realize that they no longer have to pay too much or compete with other people to buy a home. For me, this whole thing is fascinating to watch.

[Ex-SD]

The general public, at large, are like dinosaurs. When you kick them in the butt, they will turn their head and say, “what happened”(?) a year later. It’s just now starting to sink in the brains of many people that if they wait, they will get a much lower price for a home in CA. All of the news media has finally homed in on this story and people are turning their heads and saying, “so that’s what’s happening” in the real estate market. There will always be “knife catchers” who are impulsive buyers and will continue to buy over the next few years but the number of people who can qualify for a loan in CA has shrunk dramatically and out of that pool, more are getting educated and starting to realize that they no longer have to pay too much or compete with other people to buy a home. For me, this whole thing is fascinating to watch.

[betting on fall]

If you look closer at the San Diego numbers at the U-T link, you’ll see that for “South County” the median dropped 20% and total sales dropped 50%.

That is already a housing crash and I don’t see anything stopping it from falling more.

[vizcaya]

I agree with asianautica. My limit on a home was based on getting the biggest nicest home in a very good area. My income allowed for a $300K mortage(30yr fixed). I had the 20% for a downpayment. So I searched for homes in the 400K-420k range. Early 2007, I found that the only homes available were 1200sq ft homes for $400k in these nicer areas. I almost bought at this time. Now homes in this area are averaging $430K for homes 2200-2500sqft. I shop acording to what my price range is.

[4runner]

median won’t be dropping very much because people like me don’t decrease their price range,

A year ago, you could finance 5-6 times your income by avoiding having to document it. As standards tighten up, borrowers will presumably be limited to 3 times their income.

In other words, people will have to decrease their price range whether they want to or not…

[larrylujack]

A year ago, you could finance 5-6 times your income by avoiding having to document it. As standards tighten up, borrowers will presumably be limited to 3 times their income.

That may be true for those with less than stellar credit, but for full doc with good to excellent credit, loans from lenders are plentiful at 4-6X annual salary if you dare.

[mixxalot]

200k homes ever in San Diego?

I am waiting for homes to drop or at least large condos to drop to the 200k price level. Will this ever happen?

[little lady]

I don’t know about that but I have noticed a significant shift in the pricing in my neck of the woods. Where as just a couple of months ago I’d say more than 50% of the housing stock in my area was list above 450k. Now over 100 of 173 are listed under 440k….. and the less houses on the market the more keep coming in that price range…….hmmmmm..something is brewing…..

[little lady]

I don’t know about that but I have noticed a significant shift in the pricing in my neck of the woods. Where as just a couple of months ago I’d say more than 50% of the housing stock in my area was list above 450k. Now over 100 of 173 are listed under 440k….. and the less houses on the market the more keep coming in that price range…….hmmmmm..something is brewing…..

[SD Realtor]

Mixx I believe that it could very well happen… Obviously it will happen in the less desireable neighborhoods and spread. IMO the only thing that will provide a floor to the price drops will be when they pencil out as rentals.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Mixx I believe that it could very well happen… Obviously it will happen in the less desireable neighborhoods and spread. IMO the only thing that will provide a floor to the price drops will be when they pencil out as rentals.

SD Realtor

[mixxalot]

200k homes ever in San Diego?

I am waiting for homes to drop or at least large condos to drop to the 200k price level. Will this ever happen?

[larrylujack]

A year ago, you could finance 5-6 times your income by avoiding having to document it. As standards tighten up, borrowers will presumably be limited to 3 times their income.

That may be true for those with less than stellar credit, but for full doc with good to excellent credit, loans from lenders are plentiful at 4-6X annual salary if you dare.

[4runner]

median won’t be dropping very much because people like me don’t decrease their price range,

A year ago, you could finance 5-6 times your income by avoiding having to document it. As standards tighten up, borrowers will presumably be limited to 3 times their income.

In other words, people will have to decrease their price range whether they want to or not…

[an]

I don’t know about most people but for myself, when I buy, I’m not locked into a size range but rather a price range. So, lets say I’m looking to buy in the $500k range. 2006, that would fetch me a 1500 sq-ft house. But in 2007, that 1500 sq-ft house is now $450k and the 2000 sq-ft house is now $500k. I wouldn’t be buying that 1500 sq-ft house for $450k but rather the 2000 sq-ft house for $500k. The point is that, median won’t be dropping very much because people like me don’t decrease their price range, they just get bigger better house at the same price range they’ve been looking in for the last several years.

[desmond]

I’m LMFAO!!

Does everybody on this site have a fat ass?

[Diego Mamani]

At -56%, San Bernardino is not much worse than the So Cal average of -48.5%. I was expecting worse pain in the Inland Empire.

Thank you for the link. I remember now the many times in 2006 when the NAR and CAR said we had “reached bottom.” It was laughable then , but now, I’m LMFAO!!

[XBoxBoy]

Here’s the UT’s article on this months numbers

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20071016-9999-bn16housing.html

[XBoxBoy]

Here’s the UT’s article on this months numbers

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20071016-9999-bn16housing.html

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