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Looking at this migration chart, if it affects housing price, shouldn’t it have affected it a while ago? It has been almost a decade since we first saw an out migration.
ParticipantAccording to the USD economist quoted in the article:
“The people who are leaving are likely the lower-income to middle-income categories,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego. “They want to leave because they can’t afford housing.”Since housing price in San Diego has been increasing between 2015 and 2024, while there’s a net out migration between that same period tells me that more people are moving out than moving in, but the people moving in makes more money and can afford buying at the current price.
ParticipantI’ve been following this market for 2 decades and the only time I see 3 houses for sale is the week of Christmas. Never seen anything like this in February.
ParticipantThis one is closer to SD downtown and the ocean: https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3747-Hemlock-St-92113/home/5868367. It does have a smaller lot but the school score is a little better than that house in St. George
ParticipantFor $180k more, you can live in Ramona: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Ramona/23763-Vista-Ramona-Rd-92065/home/4312914. You get better schools, .6 acre instead of 4800 sq-ft lot, and w/in 1 hour drive from the beach.
ParticipantIt all comes down to what you value. While some prioritize lower cost of living, others prioritize diversity and food scene. Some prioritize lower cost of housing and other prioritize housing price going up. Some prioritize lower gas price, while others prioritize mild climate. Some prioritize lower electricity rate while others prioritize outdoor activities (beach, trails, year-round outdoor activities). I’m not saying San Diego is perfect for everyone, however, it’s what you prioritize in your life. What you can put up with and what you can’t. What you’re willing to pay for and what you won’t. No 2 people are exactly alike. But based on data over the last decades, I think people who are moving here are more affluent than the ones who are leaving. You see it in the household income data, housing price data, and rent data.
ParticipantYou’re right, some did cash out and move/retire. I didn’t mean to say all who moved can’t buy here. But as I said in my thesis, on average the people moving in makes more money than the people moving out. Which is why the inflation adjusted median household income went up over the last decade. Also, if things are as dire as EP paint it, then rent wouldn’t have gone up dramatically.
ParticipantGo here for your San Diego data: https://datasurfer.sandag.org/dataoverview. You can narrow it down by zipcode too. For 92126, the inflation adjusted income went from ~$80k (in 2010) to ~$85k (in 2021). So, that tells me the people who are moving in are wealthier than the ones who left. On top of that, rent for a 1/1 was around $1100-1300 for your typical 1/1 condo in 2011. Today, the same unit will rent for $2k-2200. Even adjusting for inflation, it would be higher than $1100-1300. Renting has no tax benefit, so rent is purely driven by supply and demand.
So, my thesis is, yes, net migration might be negative, however, the people moving here are wealthier than the people who are leaving. Those people who leave wouldn’t be able to afford to buy anyways, so they wouldn’t affect the housing price. So, that’s why even though you have outward migration, you still have rising housing price.
ParticipantIt sucks to be buyers right now. Not only did price go up by double digits, but rates also went up as well. On top of that, sellers are not selling.
ParticipantAverage rent in San Diego surpasses San Francisco for the first time.
ParticipantAnd what does the small probability of making bank any anything to do with what you said?
“but wealthy – which to me means someone who can afford to do what they want without considering cost – n0”
I pointed out many who have tens to hundreds of millions and can afford to do what they want without considering the cost and end up broke.
I was simply saying those who spend without considering the cost tend to end up broke. Doesn’t matter if they have tens of million. Maybe that will change when you get to a billion, but you can ALWAYS spend it all.
ParticipantDoesn’t matter what your profession is. If you spend more than you make, then you’ll be broke when your career ends.
Just look at Nicholas Cage.
ParticipantMany sport stars have triple/quadruple/etc that. They will also spend without considering cost. They also end up bankrupt as well. So, if you spend without considering cost, then you need a few hundred million at least. A billion to be safe.
ParticipantTo put this number into perspective, there are over 23k households and population of over 74k in Mira Mesa. To have only 7 houses for sale is pretty amazing. Especially in the start of summer.
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