[alarmclock]

This does not necessarily apply to this thread, but I see a consistent misunderstanding on these many bubble sites between “the market” and “a residence”. I am not the slightest bit interested in buying “the market”. I am interested in buying a residence. The market is an average of the many residences out there right now. The not-so-obvious implication is that, given a large enough sample size, there are residences right now which will not slide any further.

There are numerous ways to estimate a lower bound, I think that you would want to use all methods to see where the price falls

* median house = 3x median salary (If your desired residence is roughly median, use its %-of-median — this would break down for residences far outside the median)
* 150x (or 180x or 225x or whatever factor is appropriate for the area) equivalent rent
* 1.4x of 1997 pricing (or 1.0 of 2001 pricing, and so on)

I think CR has some others.

Also, I was thinkg about trying to find the inflection point for the knife droppers — I have not put a lot of good thought into this so I don’t have an equation yet. 2nd derivative of offer price vs time, multiplied by some factor.

[alarmclock]

This does not necessarily apply to this thread, but I see a consistent misunderstanding on these many bubble sites between “the market” and “a residence”. I am not the slightest bit interested in buying “the market”. I am interested in buying a residence. The market is an average of the many residences out there right now. The not-so-obvious implication is that, given a large enough sample size, there are residences right now which will not slide any further.

There are numerous ways to estimate a lower bound, I think that you would want to use all methods to see where the price falls

* median house = 3x median salary (If your desired residence is roughly median, use its %-of-median — this would break down for residences far outside the median)
* 150x (or 180x or 225x or whatever factor is appropriate for the area) equivalent rent
* 1.4x of 1997 pricing (or 1.0 of 2001 pricing, and so on)

I think CR has some others.

Also, I was thinkg about trying to find the inflection point for the knife droppers — I have not put a lot of good thought into this so I don’t have an equation yet. 2nd derivative of offer price vs time, multiplied by some factor.

[alarmclock]

This does not necessarily apply to this thread, but I see a consistent misunderstanding on these many bubble sites between “the market” and “a residence”. I am not the slightest bit interested in buying “the market”. I am interested in buying a residence. The market is an average of the many residences out there right now. The not-so-obvious implication is that, given a large enough sample size, there are residences right now which will not slide any further.

There are numerous ways to estimate a lower bound, I think that you would want to use all methods to see where the price falls

* median house = 3x median salary (If your desired residence is roughly median, use its %-of-median — this would break down for residences far outside the median)
* 150x (or 180x or 225x or whatever factor is appropriate for the area) equivalent rent
* 1.4x of 1997 pricing (or 1.0 of 2001 pricing, and so on)

I think CR has some others.

Also, I was thinkg about trying to find the inflection point for the knife droppers — I have not put a lot of good thought into this so I don’t have an equation yet. 2nd derivative of offer price vs time, multiplied by some factor.

[alarmclock]

This does not necessarily apply to this thread, but I see a consistent misunderstanding on these many bubble sites between “the market” and “a residence”. I am not the slightest bit interested in buying “the market”. I am interested in buying a residence. The market is an average of the many residences out there right now. The not-so-obvious implication is that, given a large enough sample size, there are residences right now which will not slide any further.

There are numerous ways to estimate a lower bound, I think that you would want to use all methods to see where the price falls

* median house = 3x median salary (If your desired residence is roughly median, use its %-of-median — this would break down for residences far outside the median)
* 150x (or 180x or 225x or whatever factor is appropriate for the area) equivalent rent
* 1.4x of 1997 pricing (or 1.0 of 2001 pricing, and so on)

I think CR has some others.

Also, I was thinkg about trying to find the inflection point for the knife droppers — I have not put a lot of good thought into this so I don’t have an equation yet. 2nd derivative of offer price vs time, multiplied by some factor.

[alarmclock]

This does not necessarily apply to this thread, but I see a consistent misunderstanding on these many bubble sites between “the market” and “a residence”. I am not the slightest bit interested in buying “the market”. I am interested in buying a residence. The market is an average of the many residences out there right now. The not-so-obvious implication is that, given a large enough sample size, there are residences right now which will not slide any further.

There are numerous ways to estimate a lower bound, I think that you would want to use all methods to see where the price falls

* median house = 3x median salary (If your desired residence is roughly median, use its %-of-median — this would break down for residences far outside the median)
* 150x (or 180x or 225x or whatever factor is appropriate for the area) equivalent rent
* 1.4x of 1997 pricing (or 1.0 of 2001 pricing, and so on)

I think CR has some others.

Also, I was thinkg about trying to find the inflection point for the knife droppers — I have not put a lot of good thought into this so I don’t have an equation yet. 2nd derivative of offer price vs time, multiplied by some factor.

[alarmclock]

I am in the mist of LMAO.

[alarmclock]

I am in the mist of LMAO.

[alarmclock]

I am in the mist of LMAO.

[alarmclock]

I am in the mist of LMAO.

[alarmclock]

I am in the mist of LMAO.

[alarmclock]

Marion-

Consumerism is wrong. And most people reading this thread have been force fed consumerism from before they could make their own decisions — and what’s more, they don’t even realize it.

So I am very fed up with mindless buying. I managed to claw my way into the light of reason, and I have been patiently (and somewhat impatiently) educating my LTR as well. It has nothing to do with control over spending — it has everything to do with carrying yet another pair of shoes, or yet another sheet set, or yet another antique lamp with us for the rest of our lives.

So yes, I understand that modern women control their finances, that no man is going to tell them what they can’t buy, and that is very empowering and I am proud for them. But it just seems like they are trading one leash for another.

[alarmclock]

Marion-

Consumerism is wrong. And most people reading this thread have been force fed consumerism from before they could make their own decisions — and what’s more, they don’t even realize it.

So I am very fed up with mindless buying. I managed to claw my way into the light of reason, and I have been patiently (and somewhat impatiently) educating my LTR as well. It has nothing to do with control over spending — it has everything to do with carrying yet another pair of shoes, or yet another sheet set, or yet another antique lamp with us for the rest of our lives.

So yes, I understand that modern women control their finances, that no man is going to tell them what they can’t buy, and that is very empowering and I am proud for them. But it just seems like they are trading one leash for another.

[alarmclock]

Marion-

Consumerism is wrong. And most people reading this thread have been force fed consumerism from before they could make their own decisions — and what’s more, they don’t even realize it.

So I am very fed up with mindless buying. I managed to claw my way into the light of reason, and I have been patiently (and somewhat impatiently) educating my LTR as well. It has nothing to do with control over spending — it has everything to do with carrying yet another pair of shoes, or yet another sheet set, or yet another antique lamp with us for the rest of our lives.

So yes, I understand that modern women control their finances, that no man is going to tell them what they can’t buy, and that is very empowering and I am proud for them. But it just seems like they are trading one leash for another.

[alarmclock]

Marion-

Consumerism is wrong. And most people reading this thread have been force fed consumerism from before they could make their own decisions — and what’s more, they don’t even realize it.

So I am very fed up with mindless buying. I managed to claw my way into the light of reason, and I have been patiently (and somewhat impatiently) educating my LTR as well. It has nothing to do with control over spending — it has everything to do with carrying yet another pair of shoes, or yet another sheet set, or yet another antique lamp with us for the rest of our lives.

So yes, I understand that modern women control their finances, that no man is going to tell them what they can’t buy, and that is very empowering and I am proud for them. But it just seems like they are trading one leash for another.

[alarmclock]

Marion-

Consumerism is wrong. And most people reading this thread have been force fed consumerism from before they could make their own decisions — and what’s more, they don’t even realize it.

So I am very fed up with mindless buying. I managed to claw my way into the light of reason, and I have been patiently (and somewhat impatiently) educating my LTR as well. It has nothing to do with control over spending — it has everything to do with carrying yet another pair of shoes, or yet another sheet set, or yet another antique lamp with us for the rest of our lives.

So yes, I understand that modern women control their finances, that no man is going to tell them what they can’t buy, and that is very empowering and I am proud for them. But it just seems like they are trading one leash for another.

[Author]

Posts