[AKguy]

It’s going to become even more difficult to buy, IMHO. Why? Because getting insurance is going to be more difficult and cost more. Allstate is declining to write more fire insurance in CA. Look what has happened in Florida after the hurricanes of recent years–insurance costs have gone through the roof.

The fires will stimulate construction-related employment, for sure.

[AKguy]

It’s going to become even more difficult to buy, IMHO. Why? Because getting insurance is going to be more difficult and cost more. Allstate is declining to write more fire insurance in CA. Look what has happened in Florida after the hurricanes of recent years–insurance costs have gone through the roof.

The fires will stimulate construction-related employment, for sure.

[AKguy]

It’s going to become even more difficult to buy, IMHO. Why? Because getting insurance is going to be more difficult and cost more. Allstate is declining to write more fire insurance in CA. Look what has happened in Florida after the hurricanes of recent years–insurance costs have gone through the roof.

The fires will stimulate construction-related employment, for sure.

[AKguy]

Credit explosion took me off-guard–I wasn’t looking for the Wile Coyote moment in the CDO markets. Live and learn, I guess.

As for price declines, these seem to be accelerating in the more marginal areas (spectacularly in some), while more affluent/desirable areas are going down ever so slowly by comparison. I was anticipating an initial fall, followed by years of stagnant nominal prices/real price erosion. Clearly the dynamics of the decline are going to vary by region and within regions, with possible false bottoms here and there. Predicting the bottom for a particular area will take careful analysis of local conditions combined with global conditions. In other words, knowing when next to invest in RE will be obvious only in retrospect.

[AKguy]

numb:

So how was your day?

[AKguy]

“Nobody used the phrase “American Peso” to describe U.S. $.”

Not yet, but soon…

However, I agree with most of what you say. The arrogance and willful financial irresponsibility of the Administration and Congress over the past seven years has been breathtaking, and it’s going to take years to recover.

[AKguy]

Perry–

I think your assumption that ‘rates continue to move up’ is suspect. If the tsunami you forecast should come to pass, or threaten to, I expect rates to go down as the Fed tries desperately to keep the economy afloat. No one knows the future, but it’s not exactly a perfectly free market out there. Not that lowering rates will keep prices from falling, but it might drag the whole process out.

[AKguy]

Perry–

I think your assumption that ‘rates continue to move up’ is suspect. If the tsunami you forecast should come to pass, or threaten to, I expect rates to go down as the Fed tries desperately to keep the economy afloat. No one knows the future, but it’s not exactly a perfectly free market out there. Not that lowering rates will keep prices from falling, but it might drag the whole process out.

[AKguy]

I know how you feel. Austin is supposed to be the place to be if you are in Texas–one of the guys who used to work for me in Dublin, CA, retired to Austin, but that was going home for him.

[AKguy]

I know how you feel. Austin is supposed to be the place to be if you are in Texas–one of the guys who used to work for me in Dublin, CA, retired to Austin, but that was going home for him.

[AKguy]

Mendenhall Glacier is correct–you can see if from our front porch. Now if I can figure out how to post a photo…[img_assist|nid=3627|title=Max walking to the bus stop|desc=…dawn a couple of months ago.|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

[AKguy]

Mendenhall Glacier is correct–you can see if from our front porch. Now if I can figure out how to post a photo…[img_assist|nid=3627|title=Max walking to the bus stop|desc=…dawn a couple of months ago.|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

[AKguy]

We moved to Juneau, the capital city, which is in SE Alaska. We live in a ‘temperate’ rain forest. Our first fall was pretty depressing, with months of rainy days on end, and diminishing daylight. The uplift of seeing the sunlight on a mountaintop for a few minutes after weeks of overcast makes you realize just how important it is to get a little sunshine. This last winter was extremely snowy–~220 inches of snow, all of which I shoveled by hand off of our driveway. Snow and cold was much more tolerable than that dreary rain. With snow on the ground, the landscape is much brighter. Besides that, I’m learning to ski, gradually.

I don’t fish much, ironically enough, since this is fishing paradise and my father and brother back in CA are fishing fanatics. This is gorgeous country, and when the sun is out you never want to leave.

See view from front of our house a couple of months ago:

[AKguy]

We moved to Juneau, the capital city, which is in SE Alaska. We live in a ‘temperate’ rain forest. Our first fall was pretty depressing, with months of rainy days on end, and diminishing daylight. The uplift of seeing the sunlight on a mountaintop for a few minutes after weeks of overcast makes you realize just how important it is to get a little sunshine. This last winter was extremely snowy–~220 inches of snow, all of which I shoveled by hand off of our driveway. Snow and cold was much more tolerable than that dreary rain. With snow on the ground, the landscape is much brighter. Besides that, I’m learning to ski, gradually.

I don’t fish much, ironically enough, since this is fishing paradise and my father and brother back in CA are fishing fanatics. This is gorgeous country, and when the sun is out you never want to leave.

See view from front of our house a couple of months ago:

[AKguy]

We sold in SF Bay Area and moved to Alaska in summer, 2005. We missed the perfect selling window by a month or two, but made a nominal $400K profit selling the little house with a view I bought in 1991. We didn’t bank all our profits, but bought a 2x larger house with a spectacular mountain/glacier view in a very nice neighborhood for $240K less than our prior sale price. The kids love our neighborhood, the schools are good, and it has been a good move all in all. I still miss California (I’m a 4th generation native), and we may eventually return (you don’t know how important sunshine is to your mental health until you do without for a month or so).

Interestingly, there is much more inventory of houses for sale here than when we bought two years ago.

[Author]

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