Worth reading: latest from Robert Prechter

[sdrealtor]

LOL…hardly. The last few years have been a wake up call for everyone, even those that have plenty of money.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Credit card balances are actually down nationally. In my world I see people buckling down and living more simply. They have jobs, savings and intact retirement accounts. The last few years were a wake up call for everyone. Its no longer about bigger and better everything. Its now about living within your means, security and spending more time with family.

Prices have been flat to down on most things resulting in “real” deflation. Relatively stable nominal prices going forward will continue resulting in more “real”: deflation but little nominal inflation. In the next 3 to 5 years we will see wage inflation and soon enough we will be back in balance. A little of this and a little of that. The gov’t and bulls will claim victory despite “real” declines in home prices of greater than 50% while bears cry they didnt get enough. Just another bearish view but far less so.[/quote]

Yes, everyone we know is buckling down, even people who always thought they had “plenty of money.” They’ve been shocked by how quickly that can change.

Credit card debt (from May 2009, but still noteworthy):

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-credit-card-debt-vs-median-household-income-2009-5
————————

Also:

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months but consumers aren’t paying off their financial obligations as much you might think. Instead, they’re walking away from the debt, forcing credit-card issuers to write off as much as 90% of that reported drop, according to a new report by CardHub.com.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/write-offs-are-driving-decline-in-credit-card-debt-2010-03-09
——————-

BTW, this is exactly what needs to happen — people need to repudiate their debt (including mortgages) if we ever hope to get out of this deflationary environment.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Credit card balances are actually down nationally. In my world I see people buckling down and living more simply. They have jobs, savings and intact retirement accounts. The last few years were a wake up call for everyone. Its no longer about bigger and better everything. Its now about living within your means, security and spending more time with family.

Prices have been flat to down on most things resulting in “real” deflation. Relatively stable nominal prices going forward will continue resulting in more “real”: deflation but little nominal inflation. In the next 3 to 5 years we will see wage inflation and soon enough we will be back in balance. A little of this and a little of that. The gov’t and bulls will claim victory despite “real” declines in home prices of greater than 50% while bears cry they didnt get enough. Just another bearish view but far less so.[/quote]

Yes, everyone we know is buckling down, even people who always thought they had “plenty of money.” They’ve been shocked by how quickly that can change.

Credit card debt (from May 2009, but still noteworthy):

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-credit-card-debt-vs-median-household-income-2009-5
————————

Also:

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months but consumers aren’t paying off their financial obligations as much you might think. Instead, they’re walking away from the debt, forcing credit-card issuers to write off as much as 90% of that reported drop, according to a new report by CardHub.com.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/write-offs-are-driving-decline-in-credit-card-debt-2010-03-09
——————-

BTW, this is exactly what needs to happen — people need to repudiate their debt (including mortgages) if we ever hope to get out of this deflationary environment.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Credit card balances are actually down nationally. In my world I see people buckling down and living more simply. They have jobs, savings and intact retirement accounts. The last few years were a wake up call for everyone. Its no longer about bigger and better everything. Its now about living within your means, security and spending more time with family.

Prices have been flat to down on most things resulting in “real” deflation. Relatively stable nominal prices going forward will continue resulting in more “real”: deflation but little nominal inflation. In the next 3 to 5 years we will see wage inflation and soon enough we will be back in balance. A little of this and a little of that. The gov’t and bulls will claim victory despite “real” declines in home prices of greater than 50% while bears cry they didnt get enough. Just another bearish view but far less so.[/quote]

Yes, everyone we know is buckling down, even people who always thought they had “plenty of money.” They’ve been shocked by how quickly that can change.

Credit card debt (from May 2009, but still noteworthy):

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-credit-card-debt-vs-median-household-income-2009-5
————————

Also:

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months but consumers aren’t paying off their financial obligations as much you might think. Instead, they’re walking away from the debt, forcing credit-card issuers to write off as much as 90% of that reported drop, according to a new report by CardHub.com.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/write-offs-are-driving-decline-in-credit-card-debt-2010-03-09
——————-

BTW, this is exactly what needs to happen — people need to repudiate their debt (including mortgages) if we ever hope to get out of this deflationary environment.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Credit card balances are actually down nationally. In my world I see people buckling down and living more simply. They have jobs, savings and intact retirement accounts. The last few years were a wake up call for everyone. Its no longer about bigger and better everything. Its now about living within your means, security and spending more time with family.

Prices have been flat to down on most things resulting in “real” deflation. Relatively stable nominal prices going forward will continue resulting in more “real”: deflation but little nominal inflation. In the next 3 to 5 years we will see wage inflation and soon enough we will be back in balance. A little of this and a little of that. The gov’t and bulls will claim victory despite “real” declines in home prices of greater than 50% while bears cry they didnt get enough. Just another bearish view but far less so.[/quote]

Yes, everyone we know is buckling down, even people who always thought they had “plenty of money.” They’ve been shocked by how quickly that can change.

Credit card debt (from May 2009, but still noteworthy):

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-credit-card-debt-vs-median-household-income-2009-5
————————

Also:

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months but consumers aren’t paying off their financial obligations as much you might think. Instead, they’re walking away from the debt, forcing credit-card issuers to write off as much as 90% of that reported drop, according to a new report by CardHub.com.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/write-offs-are-driving-decline-in-credit-card-debt-2010-03-09
——————-

BTW, this is exactly what needs to happen — people need to repudiate their debt (including mortgages) if we ever hope to get out of this deflationary environment.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Credit card balances are actually down nationally. In my world I see people buckling down and living more simply. They have jobs, savings and intact retirement accounts. The last few years were a wake up call for everyone. Its no longer about bigger and better everything. Its now about living within your means, security and spending more time with family.

Prices have been flat to down on most things resulting in “real” deflation. Relatively stable nominal prices going forward will continue resulting in more “real”: deflation but little nominal inflation. In the next 3 to 5 years we will see wage inflation and soon enough we will be back in balance. A little of this and a little of that. The gov’t and bulls will claim victory despite “real” declines in home prices of greater than 50% while bears cry they didnt get enough. Just another bearish view but far less so.[/quote]

Yes, everyone we know is buckling down, even people who always thought they had “plenty of money.” They’ve been shocked by how quickly that can change.

Credit card debt (from May 2009, but still noteworthy):

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-credit-card-debt-vs-median-household-income-2009-5
————————

Also:

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months but consumers aren’t paying off their financial obligations as much you might think. Instead, they’re walking away from the debt, forcing credit-card issuers to write off as much as 90% of that reported drop, according to a new report by CardHub.com.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/write-offs-are-driving-decline-in-credit-card-debt-2010-03-09
——————-

BTW, this is exactly what needs to happen — people need to repudiate their debt (including mortgages) if we ever hope to get out of this deflationary environment.

[cyphire]

Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…

[cyphire]

Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…

[cyphire]

Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…

[cyphire]

Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…

[cyphire]

Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…

[CA renter]

[quote=cyphire]Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…[/quote]

We’re in the same boat.

Good luck! 🙂

[CA renter]

[quote=cyphire]Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…[/quote]

We’re in the same boat.

Good luck! 🙂

[CA renter]

[quote=cyphire]Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…[/quote]

We’re in the same boat.

Good luck! 🙂

[CA renter]

[quote=cyphire]Medium term Prechter is right. I also, from reading his works, as well as a sampling of a lot of other information which is out there have decided to pull the plug on all my muni bonds. Lets face it, getting 2.2% per year on %60 of my investments isn’t worth the risk of any future calamities which I see coming.

We have all the signs of a massive meltdown in the markets and the financial world, but as usual, most people see the signs and ignore the implications. I’m not doing it this time. Am I afraid that by getting out of stocks and bonds I will miss a recovery? NO WAY! We aren’t getting better, there will be no medium term recovery, but we might get pops up and down between 9K and 11K in the DOW (which is a worthless measure anyway)… So I consider my loss of income and moving to cash an insurance policy and a bet that deflation will continue as housing, employment, and then markets crash…[/quote]

We’re in the same boat.

Good luck! 🙂

[Author]

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