Will we see a selling panic in housing?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

We get bashed for being stupied

Classic !

But seriously, there are some good agents out there and I have one that I trust for my RE needs. But I would add that I just wouldn’t want him proof-reading my child’s homework, if you know what I’m saying.

[beachhunter]

this is not a dang grammer blog.. schmidt..

[beachhunter]

this is not a dang grammer blog.. schmidt..

[no_such_reality]

Any meddling to maintain the prices will result in hyperinflation. In also results in punishing anybody that didn’t participate in an irrational market.

The chips need to fall where they fall without an attempt to artificially maintain an unsustainable situation.

[no_such_reality]

Any meddling to maintain the prices will result in hyperinflation. In also results in punishing anybody that didn’t participate in an irrational market.

The chips need to fall where they fall without an attempt to artificially maintain an unsustainable situation.

[sdcellar]

nor is it a grammar blog.

but seriously, folks shouldn’t worry about misspellings here. Now, for a good laugh, check out the MLS. I am blown away by listings for million dollar homes with basic spelling and grammar errors.

If a realtor working for me wrote a lot of what I see, I’d fire him on the spot.

[sdcellar]

nor is it a grammar blog.

but seriously, folks shouldn’t worry about misspellings here. Now, for a good laugh, check out the MLS. I am blown away by listings for million dollar homes with basic spelling and grammar errors.

If a realtor working for me wrote a lot of what I see, I’d fire him on the spot.

[temeculaguy]

FormerSanDiegan, I think the rent ratio in your Clairmont scenario dosesn’t find support in the 400’s. I am not saying that the bottom won’t be the 400’s, just that those numbers don’t make the masses jump. I have almost the exact mathematical scenario but in a different neighborhood and I’ve run the numbers but they aren’t within a few hundred bucks (you can’t use downpayment as part of your calculations, you should have one but it isn’t part of the comparison). Lat year the price of the houses I was looking at was about 500k and they rented for about 2k. Now I can get the same house for 400k and the rent is still 2k but they aren’t selling because P&I is $2600. At 300k it is $1900 for P&I, tax, ins and maint is cancelled out by income tax savings so just look at the straight P&I on a 30 fixed. Somewhere between 300 and 400 will be the tipping point, market psych, interest rates, etc. will cause it to fluctuate a little either way. In past cycles there were examples of it going below effective rent because the rental market shifted a little downward and vacancies were high but I think that the masses and investors jump back in when it makes too much sense to buy even if appeciation isn’t a possibility in the near term.

All areas are different but math is a universal language. I watched my area drop almost 20% across the board in the last 12 months and sales are slower than ever. I am watching the next 20% decline very closely because the mathematical equilibrium will be somewhere in that 20%, not just for me but for the rest of the people and the rest of the people is who sets the price.

[temeculaguy]

FormerSanDiegan, I think the rent ratio in your Clairmont scenario dosesn’t find support in the 400’s. I am not saying that the bottom won’t be the 400’s, just that those numbers don’t make the masses jump. I have almost the exact mathematical scenario but in a different neighborhood and I’ve run the numbers but they aren’t within a few hundred bucks (you can’t use downpayment as part of your calculations, you should have one but it isn’t part of the comparison). Lat year the price of the houses I was looking at was about 500k and they rented for about 2k. Now I can get the same house for 400k and the rent is still 2k but they aren’t selling because P&I is $2600. At 300k it is $1900 for P&I, tax, ins and maint is cancelled out by income tax savings so just look at the straight P&I on a 30 fixed. Somewhere between 300 and 400 will be the tipping point, market psych, interest rates, etc. will cause it to fluctuate a little either way. In past cycles there were examples of it going below effective rent because the rental market shifted a little downward and vacancies were high but I think that the masses and investors jump back in when it makes too much sense to buy even if appeciation isn’t a possibility in the near term.

All areas are different but math is a universal language. I watched my area drop almost 20% across the board in the last 12 months and sales are slower than ever. I am watching the next 20% decline very closely because the mathematical equilibrium will be somewhere in that 20%, not just for me but for the rest of the people and the rest of the people is who sets the price.

[beachhunter]

sorrie for jokeen

[beachhunter]

sorrie for jokeen

[betting on fall]

Thanks to a relative who is a realtor (and who, of course, wants me to buy), I was able to gather these stats for Chula Vista 91913, which is mostly Otay Ranch and parts of Eastlake.

current listings at over $700,000- 105. Closed at over $700k in June- 2. Closed at over $700k in July- 0.

And how many people will be walking into this neighborhood in the next six months with $700k to spend? Dropping the listing 100/200k will be the only way to have a chance to sell.

I would say this situation presents the “very high probability of seeing tremendous depreciation in a short time.”

[betting on fall]

Thanks to a relative who is a realtor (and who, of course, wants me to buy), I was able to gather these stats for Chula Vista 91913, which is mostly Otay Ranch and parts of Eastlake.

current listings at over $700,000- 105. Closed at over $700k in June- 2. Closed at over $700k in July- 0.

And how many people will be walking into this neighborhood in the next six months with $700k to spend? Dropping the listing 100/200k will be the only way to have a chance to sell.

I would say this situation presents the “very high probability of seeing tremendous depreciation in a short time.”

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

beechhunter –

It was just too easy to pass up.

FOr the record … I’d rather have my agent bee savvy and “street smart” then be able to from complete sentences without running on with the possible acception of the listing where I wood insist on tripple-checking his final copy as a proof-reader before he submists it and makes a boo-boo that people sea and witch distract them from the point you are trying to make, which is to sail your house.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

beechhunter –

It was just too easy to pass up.

FOr the record … I’d rather have my agent bee savvy and “street smart” then be able to from complete sentences without running on with the possible acception of the listing where I wood insist on tripple-checking his final copy as a proof-reader before he submists it and makes a boo-boo that people sea and witch distract them from the point you are trying to make, which is to sail your house.

[Author]

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