Will we see a selling panic in housing?

[Ex-SD]

PerryChase: Thanks for the welcome.
I lived in SD for 30 years but saw this coming and sold my house in early 2005……….moved to the mountains of South Carolina. I’m very interested in the outcome of this whole mess because if prices drop to where I think they will, I will sell my house here and move back.

To answer your question…………I think that SFR will return to (and bottom out at) 2000-2001 prices by late 2009-2010 and condos will return to 1999-2000 prices because they are so overbuilt in SD. I don’t claim to have a crystal ball but I’ve always been very good with my timing concerning buying & selling real estate over the last 35 years.

[aguho]

SD Realtor,

“Yes I would classify the 91913, 14, and 15 areas in the exact same manner as you have posted. Well overpriced, little to no activity at current pricing, or at previous pricing, exceedingly high foreclosure rate and has been that way for a few months, and a base of buyers that are not the most well qualified people to begin with… and of course way way way overbuilt”.

What I find not surprising is how many of these “distressed” homes are owned by actual realtors. Take a look for yourself. One thing you’ll notice is that most of these realtors are either Filipino or Hispanic.These zipcodes are mortgage fraud central in SD County.

I still believe that most realtors are absolutely incompetent, and if they cannot manage their own personal financial affairs,how on earth can one believe that they actually have their clients best interests in mind.

I do know a few excellent realtors and I’m sure there are some on this board.However, it would probably be a good idea to purge about 90 % of the people who have real estate licences….

aguho

[aguho]

SD Realtor,

“Yes I would classify the 91913, 14, and 15 areas in the exact same manner as you have posted. Well overpriced, little to no activity at current pricing, or at previous pricing, exceedingly high foreclosure rate and has been that way for a few months, and a base of buyers that are not the most well qualified people to begin with… and of course way way way overbuilt”.

What I find not surprising is how many of these “distressed” homes are owned by actual realtors. Take a look for yourself. One thing you’ll notice is that most of these realtors are either Filipino or Hispanic.These zipcodes are mortgage fraud central in SD County.

I still believe that most realtors are absolutely incompetent, and if they cannot manage their own personal financial affairs,how on earth can one believe that they actually have their clients best interests in mind.

I do know a few excellent realtors and I’m sure there are some on this board.However, it would probably be a good idea to purge about 90 % of the people who have real estate licences….

aguho

[aguho]

SD Realtor,

“Yes I would classify the 91913, 14, and 15 areas in the exact same manner as you have posted. Well overpriced, little to no activity at current pricing, or at previous pricing, exceedingly high foreclosure rate and has been that way for a few months, and a base of buyers that are not the most well qualified people to begin with… and of course way way way overbuilt”.

What I find not surprising is how many of these “distressed” homes are owned by actual realtors. Take a look for yourself. One thing you’ll notice is that most of these realtors are either Filipino or Hispanic.These zipcodes are mortgage fraud central in SD County.

I still believe that most realtors are absolutely incompetent, and if they cannot manage their own personal financial affairs,how on earth can one believe that they actually have their clients best interests in mind.

I do know a few excellent realtors and I’m sure there are some on this board.However, it would probably be a good idea to purge about 90 % of the people who have real estate licences….

aguho

[cyphire]

Read an interesting point in the New York Times. This Sunday week in review had an interesting article “The Loan Comes Due” along with an excellent graphic explaining the process of securitizing mortgages into CDO’s.

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/08/05/weekinreview/20070805_LOAN_GRAPHIC.html

One point in the article was “Financial panics don’t happen during depressions”…. “They happen on the brink of depressions. The claim the world is prosperous is beside the point”.

Is the home buyer/seller psychology so low that there is panic selling happening now? Not really – but we haven’t had the fallout from a meltdown yet. Is it coming… you betcha!

My company sold 2 months ago, if that deal was to close this month or in the future, there would be no deal. An astounding 90% of corporate debt availability has already gone out the window, with the fallout still to be seen. The underlying mortgage instruments supporting the Trillion dollars of bonds out there, which were supposedly AAA rated, are defaulting… Again – the fallout is only now happening.

People can’t get mortgages. The data on home sales (as well as unemployment and home building activity) is a lagging time-series variable (data in a few months or more reflects today’s sales) and is both inaccurate as well as underreported. The panic sellers aren’t selling because they haven’t actually experienced the pain of the market. The only extreme pain is for the person who defaults on their mortgage, everyone else is just in hibernation mode.

When does this end? When all the trends reinforce and the pain comes. I’ve been looking around the Home Depot Expos, talking to my mortgage friends, my real estate friends, and my retail friends. Things are SLOW right now. It only snowballs from here.

As the panic does set in for home sellers, the buyers are NOT THERE to step in. As much pent up demand, money, etc. that might be out there, buyers will not respond to low prices in droves, they will be even more afraid to buy. Why? Because the end won’t be in sight, better deals will happen every week and it takes time to sell a house. You can’t day trade houses! As the offers are made, they will be withdrawn.

I think with the market in such a volatile state the acceleration of a downward trend will continue. 20% or more price changes? Nope. Prices can’t move that quickly because the buyers aren’t waiting to catch them. It will be a long slow road to ever decreasing asset prices. There will be upspikes, but mostly just low and slow. If the panic starts, most of the properties will just sit there as the buyers will react with extreme caution, after all – no one wants to be a chump and reverse places with the sellers….

[cyphire]

Read an interesting point in the New York Times. This Sunday week in review had an interesting article “The Loan Comes Due” along with an excellent graphic explaining the process of securitizing mortgages into CDO’s.

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/08/05/weekinreview/20070805_LOAN_GRAPHIC.html

One point in the article was “Financial panics don’t happen during depressions”…. “They happen on the brink of depressions. The claim the world is prosperous is beside the point”.

Is the home buyer/seller psychology so low that there is panic selling happening now? Not really – but we haven’t had the fallout from a meltdown yet. Is it coming… you betcha!

My company sold 2 months ago, if that deal was to close this month or in the future, there would be no deal. An astounding 90% of corporate debt availability has already gone out the window, with the fallout still to be seen. The underlying mortgage instruments supporting the Trillion dollars of bonds out there, which were supposedly AAA rated, are defaulting… Again – the fallout is only now happening.

People can’t get mortgages. The data on home sales (as well as unemployment and home building activity) is a lagging time-series variable (data in a few months or more reflects today’s sales) and is both inaccurate as well as underreported. The panic sellers aren’t selling because they haven’t actually experienced the pain of the market. The only extreme pain is for the person who defaults on their mortgage, everyone else is just in hibernation mode.

When does this end? When all the trends reinforce and the pain comes. I’ve been looking around the Home Depot Expos, talking to my mortgage friends, my real estate friends, and my retail friends. Things are SLOW right now. It only snowballs from here.

As the panic does set in for home sellers, the buyers are NOT THERE to step in. As much pent up demand, money, etc. that might be out there, buyers will not respond to low prices in droves, they will be even more afraid to buy. Why? Because the end won’t be in sight, better deals will happen every week and it takes time to sell a house. You can’t day trade houses! As the offers are made, they will be withdrawn.

I think with the market in such a volatile state the acceleration of a downward trend will continue. 20% or more price changes? Nope. Prices can’t move that quickly because the buyers aren’t waiting to catch them. It will be a long slow road to ever decreasing asset prices. There will be upspikes, but mostly just low and slow. If the panic starts, most of the properties will just sit there as the buyers will react with extreme caution, after all – no one wants to be a chump and reverse places with the sellers….

[cyphire]

Read an interesting point in the New York Times. This Sunday week in review had an interesting article “The Loan Comes Due” along with an excellent graphic explaining the process of securitizing mortgages into CDO’s.

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/08/05/weekinreview/20070805_LOAN_GRAPHIC.html

One point in the article was “Financial panics don’t happen during depressions”…. “They happen on the brink of depressions. The claim the world is prosperous is beside the point”.

Is the home buyer/seller psychology so low that there is panic selling happening now? Not really – but we haven’t had the fallout from a meltdown yet. Is it coming… you betcha!

My company sold 2 months ago, if that deal was to close this month or in the future, there would be no deal. An astounding 90% of corporate debt availability has already gone out the window, with the fallout still to be seen. The underlying mortgage instruments supporting the Trillion dollars of bonds out there, which were supposedly AAA rated, are defaulting… Again – the fallout is only now happening.

People can’t get mortgages. The data on home sales (as well as unemployment and home building activity) is a lagging time-series variable (data in a few months or more reflects today’s sales) and is both inaccurate as well as underreported. The panic sellers aren’t selling because they haven’t actually experienced the pain of the market. The only extreme pain is for the person who defaults on their mortgage, everyone else is just in hibernation mode.

When does this end? When all the trends reinforce and the pain comes. I’ve been looking around the Home Depot Expos, talking to my mortgage friends, my real estate friends, and my retail friends. Things are SLOW right now. It only snowballs from here.

As the panic does set in for home sellers, the buyers are NOT THERE to step in. As much pent up demand, money, etc. that might be out there, buyers will not respond to low prices in droves, they will be even more afraid to buy. Why? Because the end won’t be in sight, better deals will happen every week and it takes time to sell a house. You can’t day trade houses! As the offers are made, they will be withdrawn.

I think with the market in such a volatile state the acceleration of a downward trend will continue. 20% or more price changes? Nope. Prices can’t move that quickly because the buyers aren’t waiting to catch them. It will be a long slow road to ever decreasing asset prices. There will be upspikes, but mostly just low and slow. If the panic starts, most of the properties will just sit there as the buyers will react with extreme caution, after all – no one wants to be a chump and reverse places with the sellers….

[SD Realtor]

aguho I (and most everyone else here) would absolutely agree that there seem to be a very high number of realtors and brokers who have lost homes due to foreclosure. No need for me to look at the stats as I see them all the time.

“I still believe that most realtors are absolutely incompetent, and if they cannot manage their own personal financial affairs,how on earth can one believe that they actually have their clients best interests in mind.

I do know a few excellent realtors and I’m sure there are some on this board.However, it would probably be a good idea to purge about 90 % of the people who have real estate licences….”

Well, I cannot argue with that. I don’t think you will have to worry though as the market will take care of itself and cleanse them out.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

aguho I (and most everyone else here) would absolutely agree that there seem to be a very high number of realtors and brokers who have lost homes due to foreclosure. No need for me to look at the stats as I see them all the time.

“I still believe that most realtors are absolutely incompetent, and if they cannot manage their own personal financial affairs,how on earth can one believe that they actually have their clients best interests in mind.

I do know a few excellent realtors and I’m sure there are some on this board.However, it would probably be a good idea to purge about 90 % of the people who have real estate licences….”

Well, I cannot argue with that. I don’t think you will have to worry though as the market will take care of itself and cleanse them out.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

aguho I (and most everyone else here) would absolutely agree that there seem to be a very high number of realtors and brokers who have lost homes due to foreclosure. No need for me to look at the stats as I see them all the time.

“I still believe that most realtors are absolutely incompetent, and if they cannot manage their own personal financial affairs,how on earth can one believe that they actually have their clients best interests in mind.

I do know a few excellent realtors and I’m sure there are some on this board.However, it would probably be a good idea to purge about 90 % of the people who have real estate licences….”

Well, I cannot argue with that. I don’t think you will have to worry though as the market will take care of itself and cleanse them out.

SD Realtor

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