Why we aren’t at a housing bottom

[JWM in SD]

The bottom will only occur after the solvent banks begin lending to each other again and the insolvent banks either go away or bring out their dead and mark to market.

Basically, when the credit crunch is done, and sane lending standards have truly returned, then the bottom will be in sight. Prior to that, forget it. The problem for a lot of people including some of those in this forum, don’t want to admit what that really means…and that is over correction of home prices in SoCal. I will happen…I had my doubts a year ago, but now it is pretty clear that nothing can stop it.

[Running Bear]

I plan on updating this post with the 10yr rate so people can track it more easily and understand the effects of how much the change in rates will have on payments and home affordability.

When I wrote this post the 10yr was at 3.4%

Today as I write this we are at 3.85%

I plan on updating the monthly mortgage payment and total cost of a 500,000.00 30yr fixed mortgage that started at 6.5% and goes up the same value as the 10yr increase. This is not the case in the real world as the mortgage rates can go up or down more then this rate but I am doing it to only have 1 variable to deal with. This isn’t meant to tell you “this is the rate or amount you will pay” if you tried to go out and get a loan but a rough estimate of how much increase your loan will see with the rise or fall in interest rates.

At 3.4/6.5 monthly 3,160.34 total cost 637,722.44

At 3.85/6.95 monthly 3,309.74 total cost 691,506.23

If there are people that don’t like the way I have constructed this or have a better way I am happy to change it to better explain the point.

RB

[Running Bear]

I plan on updating this post with the 10yr rate so people can track it more easily and understand the effects of how much the change in rates will have on payments and home affordability.

When I wrote this post the 10yr was at 3.4%

Today as I write this we are at 3.85%

I plan on updating the monthly mortgage payment and total cost of a 500,000.00 30yr fixed mortgage that started at 6.5% and goes up the same value as the 10yr increase. This is not the case in the real world as the mortgage rates can go up or down more then this rate but I am doing it to only have 1 variable to deal with. This isn’t meant to tell you “this is the rate or amount you will pay” if you tried to go out and get a loan but a rough estimate of how much increase your loan will see with the rise or fall in interest rates.

At 3.4/6.5 monthly 3,160.34 total cost 637,722.44

At 3.85/6.95 monthly 3,309.74 total cost 691,506.23

If there are people that don’t like the way I have constructed this or have a better way I am happy to change it to better explain the point.

RB

[Running Bear]

I plan on updating this post with the 10yr rate so people can track it more easily and understand the effects of how much the change in rates will have on payments and home affordability.

When I wrote this post the 10yr was at 3.4%

Today as I write this we are at 3.85%

I plan on updating the monthly mortgage payment and total cost of a 500,000.00 30yr fixed mortgage that started at 6.5% and goes up the same value as the 10yr increase. This is not the case in the real world as the mortgage rates can go up or down more then this rate but I am doing it to only have 1 variable to deal with. This isn’t meant to tell you “this is the rate or amount you will pay” if you tried to go out and get a loan but a rough estimate of how much increase your loan will see with the rise or fall in interest rates.

At 3.4/6.5 monthly 3,160.34 total cost 637,722.44

At 3.85/6.95 monthly 3,309.74 total cost 691,506.23

If there are people that don’t like the way I have constructed this or have a better way I am happy to change it to better explain the point.

RB

[Running Bear]

I plan on updating this post with the 10yr rate so people can track it more easily and understand the effects of how much the change in rates will have on payments and home affordability.

When I wrote this post the 10yr was at 3.4%

Today as I write this we are at 3.85%

I plan on updating the monthly mortgage payment and total cost of a 500,000.00 30yr fixed mortgage that started at 6.5% and goes up the same value as the 10yr increase. This is not the case in the real world as the mortgage rates can go up or down more then this rate but I am doing it to only have 1 variable to deal with. This isn’t meant to tell you “this is the rate or amount you will pay” if you tried to go out and get a loan but a rough estimate of how much increase your loan will see with the rise or fall in interest rates.

At 3.4/6.5 monthly 3,160.34 total cost 637,722.44

At 3.85/6.95 monthly 3,309.74 total cost 691,506.23

If there are people that don’t like the way I have constructed this or have a better way I am happy to change it to better explain the point.

RB

[Running Bear]

I plan on updating this post with the 10yr rate so people can track it more easily and understand the effects of how much the change in rates will have on payments and home affordability.

When I wrote this post the 10yr was at 3.4%

Today as I write this we are at 3.85%

I plan on updating the monthly mortgage payment and total cost of a 500,000.00 30yr fixed mortgage that started at 6.5% and goes up the same value as the 10yr increase. This is not the case in the real world as the mortgage rates can go up or down more then this rate but I am doing it to only have 1 variable to deal with. This isn’t meant to tell you “this is the rate or amount you will pay” if you tried to go out and get a loan but a rough estimate of how much increase your loan will see with the rise or fall in interest rates.

At 3.4/6.5 monthly 3,160.34 total cost 637,722.44

At 3.85/6.95 monthly 3,309.74 total cost 691,506.23

If there are people that don’t like the way I have constructed this or have a better way I am happy to change it to better explain the point.

RB

[Author]

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