why is the dollar rallying?

[stockstradr]

My thoughts on the dollar?

Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!

Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.

The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.

The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.

This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.

I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.

[barnaby33]

stockstradr, you are falling into a very dangerous trap. Inflation is of course debatable and there is always more than one course. There is even a chance that we could pay back the debts, har har. We could also default on portions and pay back others.

That being said, our inflation problem is non-existant, we have a deflation problem, predicated on debt being defaulted on faster than our govt can borrow and push that money out into the economy. Europe and China have inflation problems, though they have masked them with growth.

Its all a relative ponzi scheme. At the end of the day though the system is so complex its impossible to make accurate predictions. Europe by all rights has a much bigger inflation problem than we do. The ECB has been printing like mad, relative to the US, which has been printing through borrowing.

As long as our trade partners keep lending to us, we can keep exporting our inflation. What is so weird is our borrowing hasn’t been inflationary yet our debt defaulting has been deflationary.

[barnaby33]

stockstradr, you are falling into a very dangerous trap. Inflation is of course debatable and there is always more than one course. There is even a chance that we could pay back the debts, har har. We could also default on portions and pay back others.

That being said, our inflation problem is non-existant, we have a deflation problem, predicated on debt being defaulted on faster than our govt can borrow and push that money out into the economy. Europe and China have inflation problems, though they have masked them with growth.

Its all a relative ponzi scheme. At the end of the day though the system is so complex its impossible to make accurate predictions. Europe by all rights has a much bigger inflation problem than we do. The ECB has been printing like mad, relative to the US, which has been printing through borrowing.

As long as our trade partners keep lending to us, we can keep exporting our inflation. What is so weird is our borrowing hasn’t been inflationary yet our debt defaulting has been deflationary.

[barnaby33]

stockstradr, you are falling into a very dangerous trap. Inflation is of course debatable and there is always more than one course. There is even a chance that we could pay back the debts, har har. We could also default on portions and pay back others.

That being said, our inflation problem is non-existant, we have a deflation problem, predicated on debt being defaulted on faster than our govt can borrow and push that money out into the economy. Europe and China have inflation problems, though they have masked them with growth.

Its all a relative ponzi scheme. At the end of the day though the system is so complex its impossible to make accurate predictions. Europe by all rights has a much bigger inflation problem than we do. The ECB has been printing like mad, relative to the US, which has been printing through borrowing.

As long as our trade partners keep lending to us, we can keep exporting our inflation. What is so weird is our borrowing hasn’t been inflationary yet our debt defaulting has been deflationary.

[barnaby33]

stockstradr, you are falling into a very dangerous trap. Inflation is of course debatable and there is always more than one course. There is even a chance that we could pay back the debts, har har. We could also default on portions and pay back others.

That being said, our inflation problem is non-existant, we have a deflation problem, predicated on debt being defaulted on faster than our govt can borrow and push that money out into the economy. Europe and China have inflation problems, though they have masked them with growth.

Its all a relative ponzi scheme. At the end of the day though the system is so complex its impossible to make accurate predictions. Europe by all rights has a much bigger inflation problem than we do. The ECB has been printing like mad, relative to the US, which has been printing through borrowing.

As long as our trade partners keep lending to us, we can keep exporting our inflation. What is so weird is our borrowing hasn’t been inflationary yet our debt defaulting has been deflationary.

[barnaby33]

stockstradr, you are falling into a very dangerous trap. Inflation is of course debatable and there is always more than one course. There is even a chance that we could pay back the debts, har har. We could also default on portions and pay back others.

That being said, our inflation problem is non-existant, we have a deflation problem, predicated on debt being defaulted on faster than our govt can borrow and push that money out into the economy. Europe and China have inflation problems, though they have masked them with growth.

Its all a relative ponzi scheme. At the end of the day though the system is so complex its impossible to make accurate predictions. Europe by all rights has a much bigger inflation problem than we do. The ECB has been printing like mad, relative to the US, which has been printing through borrowing.

As long as our trade partners keep lending to us, we can keep exporting our inflation. What is so weird is our borrowing hasn’t been inflationary yet our debt defaulting has been deflationary.

[stockstradr]

“we have a deflation problem”

About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.

I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.

I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.

Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.

[stockstradr]

“we have a deflation problem”

About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.

I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.

I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.

Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.

[stockstradr]

“we have a deflation problem”

About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.

I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.

I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.

Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.

[stockstradr]

“we have a deflation problem”

About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.

I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.

I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.

Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.

[stockstradr]

“we have a deflation problem”

About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.

I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.

I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.

Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.

[bubba99]

The rise in the dollar is due to China’s intervention.

China has been raising (doubling) the reserve requirements for its central banks for the past month or so. Those reserves must be in dollars. Hence, the banks are buyers of dollars which is supporting the overall internation dollar exchange rates.

It is only fair, now that the US is a socialist state, that China supports our currency.

[bubba99]

The rise in the dollar is due to China’s intervention.

China has been raising (doubling) the reserve requirements for its central banks for the past month or so. Those reserves must be in dollars. Hence, the banks are buyers of dollars which is supporting the overall internation dollar exchange rates.

It is only fair, now that the US is a socialist state, that China supports our currency.

[bubba99]

The rise in the dollar is due to China’s intervention.

China has been raising (doubling) the reserve requirements for its central banks for the past month or so. Those reserves must be in dollars. Hence, the banks are buyers of dollars which is supporting the overall internation dollar exchange rates.

It is only fair, now that the US is a socialist state, that China supports our currency.

[bubba99]

The rise in the dollar is due to China’s intervention.

China has been raising (doubling) the reserve requirements for its central banks for the past month or so. Those reserves must be in dollars. Hence, the banks are buyers of dollars which is supporting the overall internation dollar exchange rates.

It is only fair, now that the US is a socialist state, that China supports our currency.

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