January 9, 2007 at 3:40 PM #8191
I am interested in who is still buying homes in this market. The person who bought my home (keeping fingers crossed the deal goes through) is a single young woman who is seeking 100% financing. Originally she was seeking 95% financing but then changed her mind during the escrow process. Sounds like lenders are still taking risks.
I work for a huge, I mean huge, international law firm in Los Angeles. Many of our HIGHLY compensated, I assure you HIGHLY compensated, associates are still fearful of entering the housing market because they want to be able to pay for their car (Volkswagen/BMW) repairs. So, no, not everyone is jumping on the housing market creating the “demand” that is alleged.
I would like to track who the buyers are in the coming months. If anyone has info to share, I’d be interested to know.January 9, 2007 at 6:01 PM #43083Steve BeeboParticipant
I don’t know who the buyers are in general, but there are nearly 4000 SFRs and condos in escrow in SD County right now. I would say that there are very few investors in the market, though.
I will say that people buying now in San Diego, especially first-time buyers, are in a better position than those that bought 12 months ago. Although prices will almost certainly continue downward, at least to some extent, buyers today are paying up to 5-10% less than they would have last year, depending on the area, and whether they’re buying SFRs or condos. So at least they’ve got that going for them.January 9, 2007 at 6:23 PM #43084no_such_realityParticipant
Steve, how many properties are typically in escrow any given month in the last year?January 9, 2007 at 6:28 PM #43085PDParticipant
4000 in escrow means 3998 Greater Fools and 2 people who found their dream home.
I would also like to know how 4000 compares to previous years.January 9, 2007 at 6:43 PM #43087bubble_contagionParticipant
Here is a valid reason to buy in this market: you are down sizing and found a GF to buy your larger property.
Are you impling that VW and BMW break more often?January 9, 2007 at 7:16 PM #43090FormerOwnerParticipant
The buyers are mostly Hispanics. The top 5 last names of 2005 CA home buyers were:
From what I see, 2006 + 2007 continue the trend. Anecdotal evidence tells me that a LOT of them 100% finance!January 9, 2007 at 7:26 PM #43091
Not implying VW & BMWs break down more often, those just seem to be the car of choice of many of our lawyers. Sorry for any miscommunication. Interestingly, they cost as much as much as one would have bought a home back in the 60’s/70’s? No ??
Anyway, my thinking is that lenders are still giving loans to people “s t r e t c h i n g” themselves as opposed to others coming into the market who are putting down solid down payments and can afford the homes due to a fundamental such as “income”. This data would probably be meangingless and most likely not trackable. But I think that would also be a determinative factor on how the bubble will deflate.
I had read in the OFEHA (ha ha) or whatever that government site is that Fannie Mae was immediately told to STOP writing risky loans and that they may not write loans over $417,000 per loan. Fannie and Freddie were doing this as well, along with their bogus accounting practices to hide the income they were making from the loans. By being told to stop, my belief is that a huge number of potential sketchy buyers will be foreclosed from the market to help shrink the massive inventory of the overvalued homes.
http://www.ofheo.gov/News.asp?FormMode=Releases – OFHEO ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2006 MINIMUM AND RISK-BASED CAPITAL C LASSIFICATION FOR FANNIE MAE; RECLASSIFIES FOURTH QUARTER 2002 AND 2003 AS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCAPITALIZED – December 28, 2006
I also read that a large number of people purchasing investment property were indicating on their loans that the purchase was going to be used as a primary residence. I’ve learned through reading and reading and reading that this is completely inaccurate and considered Loan Fraud. The lenders were told to clamp down on this too.
Okay, I’ve probably bored you enough . . .January 9, 2007 at 7:36 PM #43093LookoutBelowParticipant
There are a lot of "HUGELY" (your reference) wealthy people out there who WILL NOT buy real estate next year…..But… there's a sucker born every minute !!! Maybe your one of them and dont know it yet ?
Gaining wealth and preserving wealth are TWO totally separate things.
Lots of highly compensated, well educated people do dumb things with their money…take doctors for example……Conservatively known as the worst investor, not to call anybody names here, statistically speaking only. (Im sure a lot of doctors are good investors, but I never met one)January 9, 2007 at 8:28 PM #43097
Yep. I’m no doubt a sucker too. To what extent remains to be seen. I’m just working hard to minimize the damage of my ignorance.
The “home prices are too high” chant resonates throughout my firm so while I doubt any of these Harvard/Yale/Duke grads know anything about the economy since their heads have been tied up in law books/tests and now in working hard to keep their billable hours up so the partners don’t come down on them, they are feeling it too. Suckers (or not).January 10, 2007 at 8:03 AM #43125calidesignerParticipant
Interesting point and article. But I see it from a different perspective than those people quoted in the article, that it’s not really an ascension into cozy middleclass-dom, instead it is further confirmation of subprime mortgage brokers targeting a group who should know better, but apparently doesn’t so far, and is bascially being taken advantage of. Even the article breezily mentioned that it is due to low interest rates and relaxed lending practices, combined with two, three or even four incomes, which makes it possible for these families to supposedly rise into the middle class.
calidesignerJanuary 10, 2007 at 8:52 AM #43128ibjamesParticipant
is it me? Or does it seem like it’s harder to get a car loan than a loan for a house?January 10, 2007 at 12:21 PM #43147CritterParticipant
It’s harder to get a rental application approved than get a mortgage. Imagine a “stated reference” portion of a rental app, where the landlord just takes you at your word as far as what kind of tenant you are.
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