Who are the buyers in this market and economy?

[temeculaguy]

jp, if the prices of your place fall to rent nuetral, would you buy one? Would you worry about current macroeconomic conditions, unemployment, foreclosure rates, or would you just decide it’s now the same out of pocket, what the hell.

I think that is who the buyers are and will be, a lot of areas in S.D. and outside of it have reached those fundamentals, in some places it is cheaper to buy than rent. I wonder how many times in history it was cheaper to buy than rent and how long it stayed that way.

[jpinpb]

I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking.

[jpinpb]

I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking.

[jpinpb]

I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking.

[jpinpb]

I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking.

[jpinpb]

I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking. [/quote]

If you’re paying less than $1900 in rent, then it’s probably still cheaper to rent.

I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. I’m assuming that this is a long-term hold – long enough such that the price 10 years down the road will be nominally above the current price, so that your principal payments are like putting the money in a very low-yielding (perhaps no-yielding) bank account.

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking. [/quote]

If you’re paying less than $1900 in rent, then it’s probably still cheaper to rent.

I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. I’m assuming that this is a long-term hold – long enough such that the price 10 years down the road will be nominally above the current price, so that your principal payments are like putting the money in a very low-yielding (perhaps no-yielding) bank account.

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking. [/quote]

If you’re paying less than $1900 in rent, then it’s probably still cheaper to rent.

I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. I’m assuming that this is a long-term hold – long enough such that the price 10 years down the road will be nominally above the current price, so that your principal payments are like putting the money in a very low-yielding (perhaps no-yielding) bank account.

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking. [/quote]

If you’re paying less than $1900 in rent, then it’s probably still cheaper to rent.

I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. I’m assuming that this is a long-term hold – long enough such that the price 10 years down the road will be nominally above the current price, so that your principal payments are like putting the money in a very low-yielding (perhaps no-yielding) bank account.

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]I think if units in this complex were close to rent then I’d buy, but right now rents (2 different units, not counting mine) are much lower than what people are asking for sale in this complex, coupled w/the fact there are NODs, I would think prices will decline further.

There are condos in UTC that are now selling close to what rents would be. Wasn’t there a rent chart somewhere that Rich posted? Rents have been pretty stable and in line w/incomes.

I don’t expect a great increase in rents, particularly in light of unemployment being as high as it is. Maybe you might see a decrease in rent. I’ve seen some decreases, enough to make a difference, but not drastic. There does seem to be more rental units available from my recent looking. [/quote]

If you’re paying less than $1900 in rent, then it’s probably still cheaper to rent.

I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. I’m assuming that this is a long-term hold – long enough such that the price 10 years down the road will be nominally above the current price, so that your principal payments are like putting the money in a very low-yielding (perhaps no-yielding) bank account.

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[jpinpb]

Thanks, davelj. I am paying less than 1900. I’m paying 1800 including water. Another unit is now renting for 1650, but less of an ocean view. I did do the math w/only putting the FHA 3.5%. Your calculations are close w/the interest rate of 5%. However you didn’t calculate the PMI, and I’m not sure how to do that, but that needs to be added, which will make the monthly cost of owning a little higher. And probably should include somewhere maintenance/upgrading, particularly if staying 10 years.

That said, if it were close, I’d consider it, but this market seems so volitile and w/NODs and distress going on in the complex, I figure we’re not going to skyrocket to 2006 prices any time soon. I’ll just enjoy renting for now.

Although we’re in San Diego, apparently rents are decreasing in NYC and the anecdotal data on the link on that site says rents are falling in other parts of the country.

[jpinpb]

Thanks, davelj. I am paying less than 1900. I’m paying 1800 including water. Another unit is now renting for 1650, but less of an ocean view. I did do the math w/only putting the FHA 3.5%. Your calculations are close w/the interest rate of 5%. However you didn’t calculate the PMI, and I’m not sure how to do that, but that needs to be added, which will make the monthly cost of owning a little higher. And probably should include somewhere maintenance/upgrading, particularly if staying 10 years.

That said, if it were close, I’d consider it, but this market seems so volitile and w/NODs and distress going on in the complex, I figure we’re not going to skyrocket to 2006 prices any time soon. I’ll just enjoy renting for now.

Although we’re in San Diego, apparently rents are decreasing in NYC and the anecdotal data on the link on that site says rents are falling in other parts of the country.

[jpinpb]

Thanks, davelj. I am paying less than 1900. I’m paying 1800 including water. Another unit is now renting for 1650, but less of an ocean view. I did do the math w/only putting the FHA 3.5%. Your calculations are close w/the interest rate of 5%. However you didn’t calculate the PMI, and I’m not sure how to do that, but that needs to be added, which will make the monthly cost of owning a little higher. And probably should include somewhere maintenance/upgrading, particularly if staying 10 years.

That said, if it were close, I’d consider it, but this market seems so volitile and w/NODs and distress going on in the complex, I figure we’re not going to skyrocket to 2006 prices any time soon. I’ll just enjoy renting for now.

Although we’re in San Diego, apparently rents are decreasing in NYC and the anecdotal data on the link on that site says rents are falling in other parts of the country.

[jpinpb]

Thanks, davelj. I am paying less than 1900. I’m paying 1800 including water. Another unit is now renting for 1650, but less of an ocean view. I did do the math w/only putting the FHA 3.5%. Your calculations are close w/the interest rate of 5%. However you didn’t calculate the PMI, and I’m not sure how to do that, but that needs to be added, which will make the monthly cost of owning a little higher. And probably should include somewhere maintenance/upgrading, particularly if staying 10 years.

That said, if it were close, I’d consider it, but this market seems so volitile and w/NODs and distress going on in the complex, I figure we’re not going to skyrocket to 2006 prices any time soon. I’ll just enjoy renting for now.

Although we’re in San Diego, apparently rents are decreasing in NYC and the anecdotal data on the link on that site says rents are falling in other parts of the country.

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