When should we buy new home in 4S Ranch?

[4spotentialbuyer]

We are looking to buy a new home in 4S Ranch. We want a 3000+ sq ft home in the Poway school district as we are starting a family. We had wanted to buy in Del Sur however we did not like the floor plans and the prices have not dropped much. In the last year, 3000 sq ft home have dropped from 800-900K to about 750K. We want a brand new home from the builder as we want to be able to select our own upgrades and landscape design. We know it would be better to wait 2-3 yrs for the bottom of the market, however, by then 4S Ranch would be done building and Del Sur have not lowered their prices. I don’t think we want to rent for 2 years..at the most we could wait until Spring/Summer 2008 as any homes released then would be done by end of 2008. Or we could buy during the winter of 2007 as builders often offer more incentives at the end of the year.

Any recommendations or are we just insane to want to buy now when prices are dropping? We were hoping 3000 sq ft homes would drop to 650-700K range in the next few months in 4S.

Thanks for the advice.

[SD Realtor]

You are not insane. Personally I would not recommend to make the purchase based purely on the thoughts that the market will depreciate. However you have other reasons for wanting to buy.

I do not believe that in the next few months you will find a 3000 sq ft home in 4S for 650-700k but ya never know.

I am sure even the most bearish of posters here has no clue as to why there are so many people like yourselves, who are looking to make that purchase and who indeed will make that purchase. It pretty much drives them crazy. People do not seem to fathom that there is demand out there for this type of housing.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

You are not insane. Personally I would not recommend to make the purchase based purely on the thoughts that the market will depreciate. However you have other reasons for wanting to buy.

I do not believe that in the next few months you will find a 3000 sq ft home in 4S for 650-700k but ya never know.

I am sure even the most bearish of posters here has no clue as to why there are so many people like yourselves, who are looking to make that purchase and who indeed will make that purchase. It pretty much drives them crazy. People do not seem to fathom that there is demand out there for this type of housing.

SD Realtor

[4spotentialbuyer]

Winter 2007 or Spring 2008

Which time do you think would be better? As we are buying for the long haul and want to stay put to raise a family, which timing would be better?

Thank you for validating my sanity.

[4spotentialbuyer]

Winter 2007 or Spring 2008

Which time do you think would be better? As we are buying for the long haul and want to stay put to raise a family, which timing would be better?

Thank you for validating my sanity.

[SD Realtor]

4Spotentialbuyer it is hard to say. The developers have done a great job keeping the demand high in 4S by racheting down the number of homes per phase release AND keeping the releases spaced out sufficiently. I cannot really say if fall 07 will be better or worse then spring 08. One thing for sure is that summer of 06 was much worse then summer of 07 out there. Many people who even post here will recall 4S being VERY slow last summer with empty sales offices and reductions in price coupled with large incentives. That has not been the same story this summer.

I would say if you find the house you like and can afford it, and it fits your lifestyle then go over there and bargain. Try to get an immediate 3% reduction with the rationale that you are not being represented by an agent.

In the same breathe I will say that I believe there will be foreclosures (or shall I say there will be more foreclosures there) and that there will be more depreciation there, not sure how much it will be or how long it will last, the homes in 4S will depreciate. However, if you can afford it, and you understand that there will be depreciation, and you do not want to rent anymore, then so be it. Just do not overextend yourself.

I am not trying to validate or invalidate your sanity. What I am trying to say is that you are one of many people looking to buy in this particular area. This confounds many of the posters here. Whether you are correct or they are correct was not the point of my post. The point really was that there is a demand for this particular supply. Many here try to say there is not, try to hope there is not, and feel very frustrated about that demand. Thus when people such as yourself post like you have, they are frequently met with replies that cannot comprehend the decision to purchase.

Again, if it is a purely financial question, I would say that holding out will enable you to purchase at a cheaper price in the long run. Will that mean that next year or 2 years down the road you would be able to buy the same home for a cheaper price? Not sure… I “think” so but those builders have done a good job keeping the prices up. Obviously there are other factors besides the sheer financial numbers that you are basing your home purchase on.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

4Spotentialbuyer it is hard to say. The developers have done a great job keeping the demand high in 4S by racheting down the number of homes per phase release AND keeping the releases spaced out sufficiently. I cannot really say if fall 07 will be better or worse then spring 08. One thing for sure is that summer of 06 was much worse then summer of 07 out there. Many people who even post here will recall 4S being VERY slow last summer with empty sales offices and reductions in price coupled with large incentives. That has not been the same story this summer.

I would say if you find the house you like and can afford it, and it fits your lifestyle then go over there and bargain. Try to get an immediate 3% reduction with the rationale that you are not being represented by an agent.

In the same breathe I will say that I believe there will be foreclosures (or shall I say there will be more foreclosures there) and that there will be more depreciation there, not sure how much it will be or how long it will last, the homes in 4S will depreciate. However, if you can afford it, and you understand that there will be depreciation, and you do not want to rent anymore, then so be it. Just do not overextend yourself.

I am not trying to validate or invalidate your sanity. What I am trying to say is that you are one of many people looking to buy in this particular area. This confounds many of the posters here. Whether you are correct or they are correct was not the point of my post. The point really was that there is a demand for this particular supply. Many here try to say there is not, try to hope there is not, and feel very frustrated about that demand. Thus when people such as yourself post like you have, they are frequently met with replies that cannot comprehend the decision to purchase.

Again, if it is a purely financial question, I would say that holding out will enable you to purchase at a cheaper price in the long run. Will that mean that next year or 2 years down the road you would be able to buy the same home for a cheaper price? Not sure… I “think” so but those builders have done a good job keeping the prices up. Obviously there are other factors besides the sheer financial numbers that you are basing your home purchase on.

SD Realtor

[hipmatt]

Buy a resale there in 2010!

[hipmatt]

Buy a resale there in 2010!

[capeman]

Spring of 2009 would likely be much better. I too am starting a family with a little one coming early next year. I would love to move into a nice 3000 sq footer and have plenty of room for family. Thing is that whole area price-wise is likely to go into the toilet in the near term. I don’t feel like throwing away my child’s college money for some nice digs when I can keep the college money and get the same nice digs a year later. I rent a place that is a little too small now for our needs but we’re willing to suffer now so as to not hand money to the homebuilders who will happily hand me over a depreciating asset in return (houses are not supposed to be!) and walk away with a smile on their faces. My hard earned money is worth more than that. Good luck to you if you choose to buy. That takes some serious pelotas at this point with the housing market going boom and the foreclosures flooding in.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

Spring of 2009 would likely be much better. I too am starting a family with a little one coming early next year. I would love to move into a nice 3000 sq footer and have plenty of room for family. Thing is that whole area price-wise is likely to go into the toilet in the near term. I don’t feel like throwing away my child’s college money for some nice digs when I can keep the college money and get the same nice digs a year later. I rent a place that is a little too small now for our needs but we’re willing to suffer now so as to not hand money to the homebuilders who will happily hand me over a depreciating asset in return (houses are not supposed to be!) and walk away with a smile on their faces. My hard earned money is worth more than that. Good luck to you if you choose to buy. That takes some serious pelotas at this point with the housing market going boom and the foreclosures flooding in.

cheers,

chris

[fromnj]

Dear 4spotentialbuyer

We are also looking carefully 4S Ranch and Del Sur. My wife has the same opinion of yours about the floor plan. I like the Del Sur’s community plan much better, but it comes with the cost since their Melo Roos is ridiculously high. It reminds me that I am living in California, not in New Jersey.

We also like the old 4S Ranch, south of Camino De Norte better than new area. But those two or three years old houses in old 4S Ranch are much more expensive. Personally, I thought those sellers are crazy, but they might be a smart investor.

We went back to get more info about the community plan in Del Sur lately, and I got feeling that they may make some announcement about next phase sometime soon. A lady in the ranch told us that they have been negotiating the plan with developers and may start selling the units for next community development phase (second phase out of 4) in 2008/2009. Thinking about the current real estate market, developers may start increasing the number of more affordable housing units than now. Affordable may mean smaller unit, though.

The one thing I did not like about new 4S ranch area is that there is no community pool and only one small park for toddlers. There are a few small baseball park, but nothing intriguing, even the view is not great comparing to the south or old 4S Ranch area.

I am also hoping that pienza is going to lower the price down further, but I think it may/will not happen since they are selling houses at the current price and they will sell out their lots not so far in the future.

If you can wait, you may want to check the next community development plan for both 4S Ranch and Del Sur. 4S Ranch has the last development phase left and they currently have no plan at all. We visited their community center at 4S Ranch late June, and a lady told us so. However, sine they are close to complete the current phase (except maybeck), there might be some announcement within one or two years.

If you wait, the problem might be that you may not see units like evergreen or pienza in the last phase at 4S Ranch.

[fromnj]

Dear 4spotentialbuyer

We are also looking carefully 4S Ranch and Del Sur. My wife has the same opinion of yours about the floor plan. I like the Del Sur’s community plan much better, but it comes with the cost since their Melo Roos is ridiculously high. It reminds me that I am living in California, not in New Jersey.

We also like the old 4S Ranch, south of Camino De Norte better than new area. But those two or three years old houses in old 4S Ranch are much more expensive. Personally, I thought those sellers are crazy, but they might be a smart investor.

We went back to get more info about the community plan in Del Sur lately, and I got feeling that they may make some announcement about next phase sometime soon. A lady in the ranch told us that they have been negotiating the plan with developers and may start selling the units for next community development phase (second phase out of 4) in 2008/2009. Thinking about the current real estate market, developers may start increasing the number of more affordable housing units than now. Affordable may mean smaller unit, though.

The one thing I did not like about new 4S ranch area is that there is no community pool and only one small park for toddlers. There are a few small baseball park, but nothing intriguing, even the view is not great comparing to the south or old 4S Ranch area.

I am also hoping that pienza is going to lower the price down further, but I think it may/will not happen since they are selling houses at the current price and they will sell out their lots not so far in the future.

If you can wait, you may want to check the next community development plan for both 4S Ranch and Del Sur. 4S Ranch has the last development phase left and they currently have no plan at all. We visited their community center at 4S Ranch late June, and a lady told us so. However, sine they are close to complete the current phase (except maybeck), there might be some announcement within one or two years.

If you wait, the problem might be that you may not see units like evergreen or pienza in the last phase at 4S Ranch.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

LMAO. Yes, they are running out of land, they are running out of houses, and you are running out of chance to buy the house that you want in San Diego. This sounds like 2004 all over again.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

LMAO. Yes, they are running out of land, they are running out of houses, and you are running out of chance to buy the house that you want in San Diego. This sounds like 2004 all over again.

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