When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?

[hipmatt]

What do you make of these two articles..?

Is Bernake hinting at lowering rates… man the dollar will get slaughtered if he lowers again, really slaughtered.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4a24c1ec-1b67-11dc-bc55-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=5aedc804-2f7b-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8.html

[Bugs]

I’d say that bust and bubble are reciprocals. If we define a bubble as a trend exceeding that standard deviation, then a bust of that bubble would also consist of a trend exceeding that standard deviation.

Right now I think most people would tag that standard level of deviation at about 25% or so above or below that long term trend. But ultimately the terms “bubble” and “bust” will mean different things to different people.

[Bugs]

I’d say that bust and bubble are reciprocals. If we define a bubble as a trend exceeding that standard deviation, then a bust of that bubble would also consist of a trend exceeding that standard deviation.

Right now I think most people would tag that standard level of deviation at about 25% or so above or below that long term trend. But ultimately the terms “bubble” and “bust” will mean different things to different people.

[bob007]

I think it misses the greater point. The real point is homeowners cannot expect double digit gains in terms of home appreciation.

[bob007]

I think it misses the greater point. The real point is homeowners cannot expect double digit gains in terms of home appreciation.

[donaldduckmoore]

I don’t think he is trying to hint that there is a reduction of interest rate. Instead, significant increase of interest rate is not good for the economy and therefore is not favorable.

[donaldduckmoore]

I don’t think he is trying to hint that there is a reduction of interest rate. Instead, significant increase of interest rate is not good for the economy and therefore is not favorable.

[no_such_reality]

That’s easy. It’ll be acknowledged as a slump and possibly past bubble bust about two years into the next bull cycle when people can look back and refer to them as the bad old days.

RE data is so opague that it’s easy to continually dice the statistics to show anything you want to show. In the mean time, markets will just need to work off a little excess inventory caused by:

A) evil speculators fleeing the market.
B) evil banks toxic loans for good hard working Americans.
C) evil scammers commiting massive fraud robbing poor hard
working Americans.
D) evil foreign investors pushing interest rates ups.
E) evil hedge funds over extending themselves and crashing
the CDO market drying up easy credit
F) evil subprime lenders for corrupting the whole process.
G) evil RE moguls promoting RE riches which they make
through “education” or book royalties because it’s
easier than their own programs.
H) evil President Bush for the goldilock’s economy and the
massive job losses that “came out of nowhere”
I) evil bloggers creating a climate of fear for RE and
scaring buyers out of the market.
J) evil major media for all those scare stories cropping up
pushing buyers out of a “good” market.
K) evil Bill Bernake for not maintaining the eminent Alan
Greenspan’s low interest rates and inverted yield curve.
L) evil home builders for selling new homes “below market!”
M) evil low-ballers for insultingly low offers.
N) evil REO offices for dumping foreclosures “below market!”
O) evil loan officers who say I don’t have the income.
P) evil bank appraisers who don’t appraise high enough for
me to refiance.
Q) evil agent who promised me it would sell for more!
R) evil new builder who bought the land option and is
building bigger cheaper homes!
S) evil loss mitigation department for not giving me a
payment plan I could afford. What’s wrong with $1000
a month for a $700,000 home!
T) evil mortgage broker who says my debt to income is
too high!
U) evil mello roos, it’s not fair I have them and others
don’t!
V) evil property tax collector, it’s not fair people
owning longer pay way less than me!
W) evil neighbor, how dare they “give their home away”!
X) evil landlords how can they rent so cheap!
Y) evil bitter renters! Don’t they know owning is the
American dream?!?!?!
Z) evil bank! They took my home away!

Sorry for the new ABCs.

[no_such_reality]

That’s easy. It’ll be acknowledged as a slump and possibly past bubble bust about two years into the next bull cycle when people can look back and refer to them as the bad old days.

RE data is so opague that it’s easy to continually dice the statistics to show anything you want to show. In the mean time, markets will just need to work off a little excess inventory caused by:

A) evil speculators fleeing the market.
B) evil banks toxic loans for good hard working Americans.
C) evil scammers commiting massive fraud robbing poor hard
working Americans.
D) evil foreign investors pushing interest rates ups.
E) evil hedge funds over extending themselves and crashing
the CDO market drying up easy credit
F) evil subprime lenders for corrupting the whole process.
G) evil RE moguls promoting RE riches which they make
through “education” or book royalties because it’s
easier than their own programs.
H) evil President Bush for the goldilock’s economy and the
massive job losses that “came out of nowhere”
I) evil bloggers creating a climate of fear for RE and
scaring buyers out of the market.
J) evil major media for all those scare stories cropping up
pushing buyers out of a “good” market.
K) evil Bill Bernake for not maintaining the eminent Alan
Greenspan’s low interest rates and inverted yield curve.
L) evil home builders for selling new homes “below market!”
M) evil low-ballers for insultingly low offers.
N) evil REO offices for dumping foreclosures “below market!”
O) evil loan officers who say I don’t have the income.
P) evil bank appraisers who don’t appraise high enough for
me to refiance.
Q) evil agent who promised me it would sell for more!
R) evil new builder who bought the land option and is
building bigger cheaper homes!
S) evil loss mitigation department for not giving me a
payment plan I could afford. What’s wrong with $1000
a month for a $700,000 home!
T) evil mortgage broker who says my debt to income is
too high!
U) evil mello roos, it’s not fair I have them and others
don’t!
V) evil property tax collector, it’s not fair people
owning longer pay way less than me!
W) evil neighbor, how dare they “give their home away”!
X) evil landlords how can they rent so cheap!
Y) evil bitter renters! Don’t they know owning is the
American dream?!?!?!
Z) evil bank! They took my home away!

Sorry for the new ABCs.

[Borat]

Ha ha ha ha, I love it, everyone is to blame except ourselves. The american way indeed!

[Borat]

Ha ha ha ha, I love it, everyone is to blame except ourselves. The american way indeed!

[Author]

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