What will the bottom look like?

[jyurasek02]

Is there any way to use volume of houses on market and sales transactions to determine when the turning point is? Is the point at which volumes start deceases at a regular basis, and sales start increasing at a regular basis? In other words after about 4-6 months of steady constant increase or decrease, can this determine a bottom? I know that these statistics are very similar to the suply and demand of a market. How can you apply these to this current situation?

[jyurasek02]

Is there any way to use volume of houses on market and sales transactions to determine when the turning point is? Is the point at which volumes start deceases at a regular basis, and sales start increasing at a regular basis? In other words after about 4-6 months of steady constant increase or decrease, can this determine a bottom? I know that these statistics are very similar to the suply and demand of a market. How can you apply these to this current situation?

[NotCranky]

Technical analysis is not a blueprint but you have the right idea,jyurasek02. If you hope to be a market timer I would suggest you get to understand listing to pending sales ratios and know you target zip codes very well by this parameter.The ratios are really bad now and almost universaly getting worse so it is a good time to start.Make sure you understand why the ratios are changing.Do comps all the time comparing sales as much as a year back up to the current day. Also watch the cost of owning vs. renting in conjunction with the listing/pending ratios and the “distress” element in the inventory. If you feel like you have your finger on the pulse of that and keep an eye on the economy in general and your own outlook, you will do fine.

[NotCranky]

Technical analysis is not a blueprint but you have the right idea,jyurasek02. If you hope to be a market timer I would suggest you get to understand listing to pending sales ratios and know you target zip codes very well by this parameter.The ratios are really bad now and almost universaly getting worse so it is a good time to start.Make sure you understand why the ratios are changing.Do comps all the time comparing sales as much as a year back up to the current day. Also watch the cost of owning vs. renting in conjunction with the listing/pending ratios and the “distress” element in the inventory. If you feel like you have your finger on the pulse of that and keep an eye on the economy in general and your own outlook, you will do fine.

[NotCranky]

Technical analysis is not a blueprint but you have the right idea,jyurasek02. If you hope to be a market timer I would suggest you get to understand listing to pending sales ratios and know you target zip codes very well by this parameter.The ratios are really bad now and almost universaly getting worse so it is a good time to start.Make sure you understand why the ratios are changing.Do comps all the time comparing sales as much as a year back up to the current day. Also watch the cost of owning vs. renting in conjunction with the listing/pending ratios and the “distress” element in the inventory. If you feel like you have your finger on the pulse of that and keep an eye on the economy in general and your own outlook, you will do fine.

[NotCranky]

Technical analysis is not a blueprint but you have the right idea,jyurasek02. If you hope to be a market timer I would suggest you get to understand listing to pending sales ratios and know you target zip codes very well by this parameter.The ratios are really bad now and almost universaly getting worse so it is a good time to start.Make sure you understand why the ratios are changing.Do comps all the time comparing sales as much as a year back up to the current day. Also watch the cost of owning vs. renting in conjunction with the listing/pending ratios and the “distress” element in the inventory. If you feel like you have your finger on the pulse of that and keep an eye on the economy in general and your own outlook, you will do fine.

[jyurasek02]

Great! Thanks for the feedback. I guess the first step is to start tracking these numbers. How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode? I think some people have some threads doing this sort of thing for Carmel Valley. The only other question I would have is the “distress” element. Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

[jyurasek02]

Great! Thanks for the feedback. I guess the first step is to start tracking these numbers. How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode? I think some people have some threads doing this sort of thing for Carmel Valley. The only other question I would have is the “distress” element. Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

[jyurasek02]

Great! Thanks for the feedback. I guess the first step is to start tracking these numbers. How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode? I think some people have some threads doing this sort of thing for Carmel Valley. The only other question I would have is the “distress” element. Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

[jyurasek02]

Great! Thanks for the feedback. I guess the first step is to start tracking these numbers. How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode? I think some people have some threads doing this sort of thing for Carmel Valley. The only other question I would have is the “distress” element. Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

[NotCranky]

Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

Yes it would be that and short sales. Watch days on market, both for distressed properties and the general market. What you really want to see is how are the distressed properties fairing in the market along with the other observations.

“How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode?”

Without a subscription to the mls or other data source it isn’t simple to do. It can be done though. I believe? I cant explain it though because I take the simple route called the MLS.

In any case, the idea is to get your finger on the pulse of the market.
Take Temecula for instance. That is a good area to watch for learning purposes because it is already facing more drastic price declines in response to distress. The deals look good by comparison to 6 months ago, a year ago and beyond but the numbers are not showing any possiblity that those deals are going away anytime soon or even that the declines are over with.There are several posters here who are doing for Temecula what you want to do for other areas.

In most ,if not all San Diego areas, we have bad and worsening numbers but less of a capitulation on prices. All indications are that prices will continue to decline, pretty broadly speaking, before they get better. Most people are of the opinion that “nicer” areas closer to desirable locations like beaches and jobs,like CV, will get hit last. There tends to be less agreement on how hard they will get hit pricewise.

[NotCranky]

Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

Yes it would be that and short sales. Watch days on market, both for distressed properties and the general market. What you really want to see is how are the distressed properties fairing in the market along with the other observations.

“How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode?”

Without a subscription to the mls or other data source it isn’t simple to do. It can be done though. I believe? I cant explain it though because I take the simple route called the MLS.

In any case, the idea is to get your finger on the pulse of the market.
Take Temecula for instance. That is a good area to watch for learning purposes because it is already facing more drastic price declines in response to distress. The deals look good by comparison to 6 months ago, a year ago and beyond but the numbers are not showing any possiblity that those deals are going away anytime soon or even that the declines are over with.There are several posters here who are doing for Temecula what you want to do for other areas.

In most ,if not all San Diego areas, we have bad and worsening numbers but less of a capitulation on prices. All indications are that prices will continue to decline, pretty broadly speaking, before they get better. Most people are of the opinion that “nicer” areas closer to desirable locations like beaches and jobs,like CV, will get hit last. There tends to be less agreement on how hard they will get hit pricewise.

[NotCranky]

Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

Yes it would be that and short sales. Watch days on market, both for distressed properties and the general market. What you really want to see is how are the distressed properties fairing in the market along with the other observations.

“How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode?”

Without a subscription to the mls or other data source it isn’t simple to do. It can be done though. I believe? I cant explain it though because I take the simple route called the MLS.

In any case, the idea is to get your finger on the pulse of the market.
Take Temecula for instance. That is a good area to watch for learning purposes because it is already facing more drastic price declines in response to distress. The deals look good by comparison to 6 months ago, a year ago and beyond but the numbers are not showing any possiblity that those deals are going away anytime soon or even that the declines are over with.There are several posters here who are doing for Temecula what you want to do for other areas.

In most ,if not all San Diego areas, we have bad and worsening numbers but less of a capitulation on prices. All indications are that prices will continue to decline, pretty broadly speaking, before they get better. Most people are of the opinion that “nicer” areas closer to desirable locations like beaches and jobs,like CV, will get hit last. There tends to be less agreement on how hard they will get hit pricewise.

[NotCranky]

Would that be the foreclosures and NOT’s and NOD’s?

Yes it would be that and short sales. Watch days on market, both for distressed properties and the general market. What you really want to see is how are the distressed properties fairing in the market along with the other observations.

“How can I gather the correct information to start tracking this information by zipcode?”

Without a subscription to the mls or other data source it isn’t simple to do. It can be done though. I believe? I cant explain it though because I take the simple route called the MLS.

In any case, the idea is to get your finger on the pulse of the market.
Take Temecula for instance. That is a good area to watch for learning purposes because it is already facing more drastic price declines in response to distress. The deals look good by comparison to 6 months ago, a year ago and beyond but the numbers are not showing any possiblity that those deals are going away anytime soon or even that the declines are over with.There are several posters here who are doing for Temecula what you want to do for other areas.

In most ,if not all San Diego areas, we have bad and worsening numbers but less of a capitulation on prices. All indications are that prices will continue to decline, pretty broadly speaking, before they get better. Most people are of the opinion that “nicer” areas closer to desirable locations like beaches and jobs,like CV, will get hit last. There tends to be less agreement on how hard they will get hit pricewise.

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