what is your asset allocation?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

… of course, Peter Schiff went bearish on US equities in 2002, so even his timing was off… way off.

[kewp]

… of course, Peter Schiff went bearish on US equities in 2002, so even his timing was off… way off.

Not really, all the gains since then have barely kept up with inflation. Once you factor in the declining dollar, there is much more money to be made in the global market.

While I think Schiff is great, I do differ with his opinion on a few key areas.

One, if he is right and the dollar is going to collapse and the global market take of, that will make us *much* more competitive. We still have lots of natural resources, hard workers and efficiently run businesses.

Two, I don’t see how our economy can collapse without taking at least some of the global market with it.

[an]

“… of course, Peter Schiff went bearish on US equities in 2002, so even his timing was off… way off.”

His timing may be off, but many things he predicted came true. It just come to show how hard it is to time the market but fundamentals are easier to spot. Which is why he’s bullish in international vs US. He believe the international fundamentals are still strong while the US need a healthy correction. We’ll see if he’s right this time or not. I’m just saying that most people are not 100% bearish about everything.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Not really, all the gains since then have barely kept up with inflation. Once you factor in the declining dollar, there is much more money to be made in the global market.

So, tell me what happened if you shorted the US market starting in 2002. I’m pretty sure one would be better off long in US equities since 2002 than short, and that’s whether you live in San Diego, Paris or Hong Kong or buy your everyday stuff in rupees or kroners.

Also, I’ll take your argument to another erroneous conclusion : If you factor in the decline of the dollar, then housing is not overpriced. In fact, as measured against gold, housing is flat since 2000.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m just saying that most people are not 100% bearish about everything.

Well-said.

[kewp]

So, tell me what happened if you shorted the US market starting in 2002.

False dilemma. Yeah you would have made some dollars. You would have made more dollars if you were going global, particularly in emerging markets. Heck, one double-index fund I watch that covers emerging markets is up 90% in the last year.

Given that real-estate is highly illiquid, you can’t compare it to something like gold. I can’t box up condos downtown and ship them to Bangalore. Domestic housing is pinned to local wages, which unfortunately are *not* inflating and therefore is fundamentally over-priced.

[NotCranky]

Cows,pigs, chickens and goats.

[hipmatt]

70% CDs
30% percent GLD, GDX, and a few other gold related stocks.
UDN.. dollar bearish etf, and a foreign dividend value etf

[Fearful]

70% food, 25% water, 5% ammo

[LookoutBelow]

To all of you deeply invested into "Emerging Markets"…better watch out. They are SERIOUS risk. Ala, good returns for present time, but when it goes south you cant get out of them fast enough, diversify mates !

I would be willing to bet that 99% of the people invested in those risky funds dont have a CLUE as to what the fund managers have got into as far as investments that make up those funds……I saw one the other day that after I researched it a little I found out they were HEAVILY invested in a "recently listed, publicly traded spanish wood supply company" for housing construction…..Oh Yeah !….try and figure out how that specific company is weathering the shitstorm going on over there in Spain with THEIR very own housing bubble collapse …..

Stocks suck…real estate sucks…day trade the trends…if youve got the dinero, time and the balls for quick small profits…long positions on ANYTHING is ridiculous today

Good luck

[kewp]

To all of you deeply invested into “Emerging Markets”…better watch out. They are SERIOUS risk. Ala, good returns for present time, but when it goes south you cant get out of them fast enough, diversify mates !

Haha, to be clear, I’m 100% in debt consolidation and will be for at least the next year. In the meantime I’m just watching from the sidelines.

If I had the money, I would be all in “Ultra” ProFunds and indeed day-trading the trends.

http://www.profunds.com/PricesPerformance/PerformanceData.fs

[stansd]

I keep thinking of dropping some dough into debt consolidation…what do you think some of the better picks out there in that space are?

Stan

[kewp]

I keep thinking of dropping some dough into debt consolidation…what do you think some of the better picks out there in that space are?

I meant I’m paying back money borrowed from my dad to pay off some outstanding CC debt. Good deal so far for me, but I think eldest son status helped me get the loan.

But, now that you mention, the professional debt consolidators might be a good play these days. I usually have a policy against buying debt (especially from Americans), but this area is probably less risky as you are dealing with folks that have a clear want to pay off their liabilities.

[cyphire]

FormerSanDiegan…. Just because you look long term (something I haven’t been famous for) doesn’t mean that you just rebalance. Head for them thar hills dude!

I have 0 debt and sold my company about 4 months ago. As of last week I sold off every single stock. I am now 1/3rd California municipal bonds, and 2/3rds in the money market.

I really like the idea of shorting the S&P 500 and investing as a bear. As most people aren’t sophisticated investors I think that shorting the market might be a brilliant move. I agree – it’s not safe. So I might take 25% of my money and buy gold / short the market.

Hey asianautica… be careful about the emerging markets / asian markets. When the consumer stops spending in the US the markets will tumble. I sadly think that the recent jobs report is just the first leg of a steady decline into a vast recession. While it’s hard to time a market, it’s less hard to see the writing on the wall and go against the flow. Soon the flow will be dramatically shifting, with people bailing on their portfolios.

And let me state what we always say on this forum – but in more certain terms…. The housing market will correct BRUTALLY to the downside. It will take years. We haven’t even begun to experience how much air will be let out of this market. In 2005 120K people a month took the real estate exam… this month… 6000. What a difference a couple of years make.

Homes are illiquid. Think of the housing market as a huge supertanker which was gaining speed each month through the 2005’s… It started slowing in 2006 and now they have put the brakes on HARD…. But it’s still a supertanker and it takes a large portion of the market to turn over before the corrections get finalized. Damn I am bad at analogies…. But you can catch my drift!

[stansd]

“catch my drift” boom boom ching.

I had a good chunk of change in California Munis but moved it…fear in my mind was that as dependent as this state has been on the housing market, even State Munis could get creamed…didn’t do a lot of research on that thesis, but just a thought.

Stan

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