What is the best scenario?

[ironman]

Most of the people on this forum would like to see house prices go to some normal level. How do you measured that is up to your preference (x yearly rent or x yearly income).
Anyway we know that what we have now ain’t it …

What is the best scenario that gets us there? What need to happen so we go back to where we were , say 8 years ago, i.e., house prices more normal and everything else pretty much the same.

If somebody (say millions) borrowed money and can not pay them back , who should foot the bill?

The borrower? – he does not have them
The bank/lender ? – probably they are going to stick the smaller investor if they incur a loss (think 401K plans) or they will dump it to the Gov since they are Gov guaranteed
Fanny of Freddie ? – check the previous one
Foreign Investors ? – do we want to irritate them since we are very much dependent on them
Whole country through inflation ? – then everybody suffers

The money needs to be paid by someone?
What would be least painful outcome for people that did not buy into the bubble and do not have to pay a price to correct something they did not cause?

Ironman

[sd_bear]

Who says anybody has to pay the money back? I believe nobody should foot any bill, so people/banks who made bad investments will go bankrupt.

[sd_bear]

Who says anybody has to pay the money back? I believe nobody should foot any bill, so people/banks who made bad investments will go bankrupt.

[sd_bear]

Who says anybody has to pay the money back? I believe nobody should foot any bill, so people/banks who made bad investments will go bankrupt.

[sd_bear]

Who says anybody has to pay the money back? I believe nobody should foot any bill, so people/banks who made bad investments will go bankrupt.

[sd_bear]

Who says anybody has to pay the money back? I believe nobody should foot any bill, so people/banks who made bad investments will go bankrupt.

[XBoxBoy]

The best scenario would be for the government to stay out of things, and to let the markets do what they need to do. That would return prices to where they are valued by the market, and would greatly discourage people from participating in a future bubble like the one we are witnessing pop. It might be unpleasant medicine, but it would be far better in the long run.

However, I can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen. Of course what will happen is a constant flow of government bailouts, either to investment banks as loans, or to joe6pack in the form of stimulus checks. Mix with that a healthy dose of inflation (does anyone seriously believe the government reported figures of only 2-3%?)

As to what’s the best we can hope for? Personally, I think it would be for those investing money in the US to get a clue as to how bad their investments are turning out and to do something about it.

Ironically, that might be starting to happen. A while back a Saudi oil minister was quoted as saying that for every percent the dollar fell, oil prices had to rise by $5. I’ve started to wonder if OPEC isn’t quietly telling Bush and Paulson behind doors that if they don’t stop the dollar’s decline, the oil countries are going to make them pay. This would explain a number of recent comments by fed officials and others about stopping lowering interest rates. Of course I could be all wet, and in desperate need of removing my tin foil hat.

Just my thoughts,

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

The best scenario would be for the government to stay out of things, and to let the markets do what they need to do. That would return prices to where they are valued by the market, and would greatly discourage people from participating in a future bubble like the one we are witnessing pop. It might be unpleasant medicine, but it would be far better in the long run.

However, I can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen. Of course what will happen is a constant flow of government bailouts, either to investment banks as loans, or to joe6pack in the form of stimulus checks. Mix with that a healthy dose of inflation (does anyone seriously believe the government reported figures of only 2-3%?)

As to what’s the best we can hope for? Personally, I think it would be for those investing money in the US to get a clue as to how bad their investments are turning out and to do something about it.

Ironically, that might be starting to happen. A while back a Saudi oil minister was quoted as saying that for every percent the dollar fell, oil prices had to rise by $5. I’ve started to wonder if OPEC isn’t quietly telling Bush and Paulson behind doors that if they don’t stop the dollar’s decline, the oil countries are going to make them pay. This would explain a number of recent comments by fed officials and others about stopping lowering interest rates. Of course I could be all wet, and in desperate need of removing my tin foil hat.

Just my thoughts,

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

The best scenario would be for the government to stay out of things, and to let the markets do what they need to do. That would return prices to where they are valued by the market, and would greatly discourage people from participating in a future bubble like the one we are witnessing pop. It might be unpleasant medicine, but it would be far better in the long run.

However, I can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen. Of course what will happen is a constant flow of government bailouts, either to investment banks as loans, or to joe6pack in the form of stimulus checks. Mix with that a healthy dose of inflation (does anyone seriously believe the government reported figures of only 2-3%?)

As to what’s the best we can hope for? Personally, I think it would be for those investing money in the US to get a clue as to how bad their investments are turning out and to do something about it.

Ironically, that might be starting to happen. A while back a Saudi oil minister was quoted as saying that for every percent the dollar fell, oil prices had to rise by $5. I’ve started to wonder if OPEC isn’t quietly telling Bush and Paulson behind doors that if they don’t stop the dollar’s decline, the oil countries are going to make them pay. This would explain a number of recent comments by fed officials and others about stopping lowering interest rates. Of course I could be all wet, and in desperate need of removing my tin foil hat.

Just my thoughts,

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

The best scenario would be for the government to stay out of things, and to let the markets do what they need to do. That would return prices to where they are valued by the market, and would greatly discourage people from participating in a future bubble like the one we are witnessing pop. It might be unpleasant medicine, but it would be far better in the long run.

However, I can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen. Of course what will happen is a constant flow of government bailouts, either to investment banks as loans, or to joe6pack in the form of stimulus checks. Mix with that a healthy dose of inflation (does anyone seriously believe the government reported figures of only 2-3%?)

As to what’s the best we can hope for? Personally, I think it would be for those investing money in the US to get a clue as to how bad their investments are turning out and to do something about it.

Ironically, that might be starting to happen. A while back a Saudi oil minister was quoted as saying that for every percent the dollar fell, oil prices had to rise by $5. I’ve started to wonder if OPEC isn’t quietly telling Bush and Paulson behind doors that if they don’t stop the dollar’s decline, the oil countries are going to make them pay. This would explain a number of recent comments by fed officials and others about stopping lowering interest rates. Of course I could be all wet, and in desperate need of removing my tin foil hat.

Just my thoughts,

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

The best scenario would be for the government to stay out of things, and to let the markets do what they need to do. That would return prices to where they are valued by the market, and would greatly discourage people from participating in a future bubble like the one we are witnessing pop. It might be unpleasant medicine, but it would be far better in the long run.

However, I can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen. Of course what will happen is a constant flow of government bailouts, either to investment banks as loans, or to joe6pack in the form of stimulus checks. Mix with that a healthy dose of inflation (does anyone seriously believe the government reported figures of only 2-3%?)

As to what’s the best we can hope for? Personally, I think it would be for those investing money in the US to get a clue as to how bad their investments are turning out and to do something about it.

Ironically, that might be starting to happen. A while back a Saudi oil minister was quoted as saying that for every percent the dollar fell, oil prices had to rise by $5. I’ve started to wonder if OPEC isn’t quietly telling Bush and Paulson behind doors that if they don’t stop the dollar’s decline, the oil countries are going to make them pay. This would explain a number of recent comments by fed officials and others about stopping lowering interest rates. Of course I could be all wet, and in desperate need of removing my tin foil hat.

Just my thoughts,

XBoxBoy

[HarryBosch]

I have friends and relatives who are not in debt and who have lived by a policy of living below their means. My brother-in-law used to say “It’s not about how much money you make but how much you save.”

He will have his house paid off very soon, will collect a pension and has no credit card or car loans debt. I know he and his wife have made far less per year than myself and my wife have over the years.

All he – and others like him – should do is continue to pay his own fixed rate mortgage. He lived conservatively. It would be unfair – outrageous – to ask him and others to pay for other people’s losses.

[HarryBosch]

I have friends and relatives who are not in debt and who have lived by a policy of living below their means. My brother-in-law used to say “It’s not about how much money you make but how much you save.”

He will have his house paid off very soon, will collect a pension and has no credit card or car loans debt. I know he and his wife have made far less per year than myself and my wife have over the years.

All he – and others like him – should do is continue to pay his own fixed rate mortgage. He lived conservatively. It would be unfair – outrageous – to ask him and others to pay for other people’s losses.

[HarryBosch]

I have friends and relatives who are not in debt and who have lived by a policy of living below their means. My brother-in-law used to say “It’s not about how much money you make but how much you save.”

He will have his house paid off very soon, will collect a pension and has no credit card or car loans debt. I know he and his wife have made far less per year than myself and my wife have over the years.

All he – and others like him – should do is continue to pay his own fixed rate mortgage. He lived conservatively. It would be unfair – outrageous – to ask him and others to pay for other people’s losses.

[HarryBosch]

I have friends and relatives who are not in debt and who have lived by a policy of living below their means. My brother-in-law used to say “It’s not about how much money you make but how much you save.”

He will have his house paid off very soon, will collect a pension and has no credit card or car loans debt. I know he and his wife have made far less per year than myself and my wife have over the years.

All he – and others like him – should do is continue to pay his own fixed rate mortgage. He lived conservatively. It would be unfair – outrageous – to ask him and others to pay for other people’s losses.

[Author]

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