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  • November 9, 2009 at 4:58 PM #480354
    Bugs
    Participant

    The Japanese tried several run-the-clock tactics and all it did was drag it all out.

    I agree with Analyst – this is about the bank slowing down their rates of foreclosure – which triggers the requirements to write down the loss – and maximizing their cash flow. It’s about extracting the maximum number of payments and the maximum amounts the borrower will consider paying for as long as they’re willing to do it. Give the borrower just enough hope that they might somehow be able to survive the bust intact and be in a position to get back on the rocket for the next 300% bull run.

    I haven’t been around for a while. Have you guys discussed the possibility of the incomplete return-to-trend yet? What happens if the current correction cycle stops short of returning to trend and starts into increase prematurely? Do we set ourselves up for another even more devastating round of losses or is the general concensus one of no blood – no foul?

    November 9, 2009 at 5:10 PM #479526
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    I think we are all pretty much in concensus that there is another leg down. Where we differ is how big and how quickly it will happen. That being said most seem to agree that the low end may have bounced off its bottom, that the middle is getting close and that the high end has plenty of work ahead.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:10 PM #479696
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    I think we are all pretty much in concensus that there is another leg down. Where we differ is how big and how quickly it will happen. That being said most seem to agree that the low end may have bounced off its bottom, that the middle is getting close and that the high end has plenty of work ahead.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:10 PM #480058
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    I think we are all pretty much in concensus that there is another leg down. Where we differ is how big and how quickly it will happen. That being said most seem to agree that the low end may have bounced off its bottom, that the middle is getting close and that the high end has plenty of work ahead.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:10 PM #480139
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    I think we are all pretty much in concensus that there is another leg down. Where we differ is how big and how quickly it will happen. That being said most seem to agree that the low end may have bounced off its bottom, that the middle is getting close and that the high end has plenty of work ahead.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:10 PM #480359
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    I think we are all pretty much in concensus that there is another leg down. Where we differ is how big and how quickly it will happen. That being said most seem to agree that the low end may have bounced off its bottom, that the middle is getting close and that the high end has plenty of work ahead.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:13 PM #479531
    Nor-LA-SD-guy
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]The Japanese tried several run-the-clock tactics and all it did was drag it all out.
    [/quote]

    Although I can see some similarities to what has been happening to the Japanese since the late 80’s

    But we are not the Japanese and still have a fairly strong new household formation rate, so I can at least some limited success occurring with this run-the-clock tactic.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:13 PM #479701
    Nor-LA-SD-guy
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]The Japanese tried several run-the-clock tactics and all it did was drag it all out.
    [/quote]

    Although I can see some similarities to what has been happening to the Japanese since the late 80’s

    But we are not the Japanese and still have a fairly strong new household formation rate, so I can at least some limited success occurring with this run-the-clock tactic.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:13 PM #480063
    Nor-LA-SD-guy
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]The Japanese tried several run-the-clock tactics and all it did was drag it all out.
    [/quote]

    Although I can see some similarities to what has been happening to the Japanese since the late 80’s

    But we are not the Japanese and still have a fairly strong new household formation rate, so I can at least some limited success occurring with this run-the-clock tactic.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:13 PM #480144
    Nor-LA-SD-guy
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]The Japanese tried several run-the-clock tactics and all it did was drag it all out.
    [/quote]

    Although I can see some similarities to what has been happening to the Japanese since the late 80’s

    But we are not the Japanese and still have a fairly strong new household formation rate, so I can at least some limited success occurring with this run-the-clock tactic.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:13 PM #480364
    Nor-LA-SD-guy
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]The Japanese tried several run-the-clock tactics and all it did was drag it all out.
    [/quote]

    Although I can see some similarities to what has been happening to the Japanese since the late 80’s

    But we are not the Japanese and still have a fairly strong new household formation rate, so I can at least some limited success occurring with this run-the-clock tactic.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:16 PM #479536
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]I haven’t been around for a while. Have you guys discussed the possibility of the incomplete return-to-trend yet? What happens if the current correction cycle stops short of returning to trend and starts into increase prematurely? Do we set ourselves up for another even more devastating round of losses or is the general concensus one of no blood – no foul?[/quote]

    Bugs, nice to hear from you. I think that, just as govt intervention in the US housing market back in the 1930’s and 1940’s (Fannie and Freddie and 30-year fixed rate mortgages) permanently moved home prices up, and home interest deductibility did the same thing, so what’s happening now marks a permanent increase in govt support for high home prices.

    How much higher? Too hard to tell. We won’t even know for sure which of the new govt home price support programs will become permanent until maybe 5 or 10 years from now.

    I would be very interested to hear your thoughts.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:16 PM #479706
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]I haven’t been around for a while. Have you guys discussed the possibility of the incomplete return-to-trend yet? What happens if the current correction cycle stops short of returning to trend and starts into increase prematurely? Do we set ourselves up for another even more devastating round of losses or is the general concensus one of no blood – no foul?[/quote]

    Bugs, nice to hear from you. I think that, just as govt intervention in the US housing market back in the 1930’s and 1940’s (Fannie and Freddie and 30-year fixed rate mortgages) permanently moved home prices up, and home interest deductibility did the same thing, so what’s happening now marks a permanent increase in govt support for high home prices.

    How much higher? Too hard to tell. We won’t even know for sure which of the new govt home price support programs will become permanent until maybe 5 or 10 years from now.

    I would be very interested to hear your thoughts.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:16 PM #480068
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]I haven’t been around for a while. Have you guys discussed the possibility of the incomplete return-to-trend yet? What happens if the current correction cycle stops short of returning to trend and starts into increase prematurely? Do we set ourselves up for another even more devastating round of losses or is the general concensus one of no blood – no foul?[/quote]

    Bugs, nice to hear from you. I think that, just as govt intervention in the US housing market back in the 1930’s and 1940’s (Fannie and Freddie and 30-year fixed rate mortgages) permanently moved home prices up, and home interest deductibility did the same thing, so what’s happening now marks a permanent increase in govt support for high home prices.

    How much higher? Too hard to tell. We won’t even know for sure which of the new govt home price support programs will become permanent until maybe 5 or 10 years from now.

    I would be very interested to hear your thoughts.

    November 9, 2009 at 5:16 PM #480149
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=Bugs]I haven’t been around for a while. Have you guys discussed the possibility of the incomplete return-to-trend yet? What happens if the current correction cycle stops short of returning to trend and starts into increase prematurely? Do we set ourselves up for another even more devastating round of losses or is the general concensus one of no blood – no foul?[/quote]

    Bugs, nice to hear from you. I think that, just as govt intervention in the US housing market back in the 1930’s and 1940’s (Fannie and Freddie and 30-year fixed rate mortgages) permanently moved home prices up, and home interest deductibility did the same thing, so what’s happening now marks a permanent increase in govt support for high home prices.

    How much higher? Too hard to tell. We won’t even know for sure which of the new govt home price support programs will become permanent until maybe 5 or 10 years from now.

    I would be very interested to hear your thoughts.

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