We have hit bottom!

[sdduuuude]

From what I have seen, this is driven by sales in the lower end where foreclosures abound and prices are way down.

I think this is really bad news for the higher end. If there is so much price disparity to cause a large sales surge at the low end, it will have the long-term effect of sucking buyers away from the nicer areas and eventually depressing prices. This has been a long time coming and I think this big jump in sales at the low end may signal it is finally happening.

That is, the pain train is heading “uptown” very soon. This, combined with the October credit crash, means we are a mere month or two away from the first set of “holy shit” data that will flow until Spring.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]Date Zip #solds LP SP
9/07 92131 17 783k 746k
9/08 8 750k 735k
9/07 92129 21 633k 605k
9/08 8 567k 545k
9/07 92127 34 1.16M 1.09M
9/08 16 1.20M 1.09M
9/07 92009 22 832k 782k
9/08 18 870k 841k
9/07 92054 18 581k 558k
9/08 10 381k 375k
9/07 92078 25 598k 570k
9/08 17 534k 527k
9/07 92126 15 508k 486k
9/08 21 379k 376k
9/07 92037 14 2.65M 2.29M
9/08 9 2.04M 1.82M
9/07 92014 9 1.96M 1.81M
9/08 5 1.98M 1.67M
9/07 92106 5 1.16M 1.07M
9/08 5 1.20M 1.16M
9/07 92104 16 529k 510k
9/08 5 361k 351k
9/07 92103 7 833k 792k
9/08 4 698k 685k
9/07 91913 18 557k 534k
9/08 18 409k 410k

[/quote]

Maybe I am wrong, but I see sales down in most of the above. 92126 (mira mesa) sales are up but everyone else’s sales seem to be down or at best flat.

Or did you specifically choose these Zips SD_R? It seems like a kinda best hits of where piggs want to live, so I didnt see anything too weird, but maybe these were specifically choosen as they are all down?

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]Date Zip #solds LP SP
9/07 92131 17 783k 746k
9/08 8 750k 735k
9/07 92129 21 633k 605k
9/08 8 567k 545k
9/07 92127 34 1.16M 1.09M
9/08 16 1.20M 1.09M
9/07 92009 22 832k 782k
9/08 18 870k 841k
9/07 92054 18 581k 558k
9/08 10 381k 375k
9/07 92078 25 598k 570k
9/08 17 534k 527k
9/07 92126 15 508k 486k
9/08 21 379k 376k
9/07 92037 14 2.65M 2.29M
9/08 9 2.04M 1.82M
9/07 92014 9 1.96M 1.81M
9/08 5 1.98M 1.67M
9/07 92106 5 1.16M 1.07M
9/08 5 1.20M 1.16M
9/07 92104 16 529k 510k
9/08 5 361k 351k
9/07 92103 7 833k 792k
9/08 4 698k 685k
9/07 91913 18 557k 534k
9/08 18 409k 410k

[/quote]

Maybe I am wrong, but I see sales down in most of the above. 92126 (mira mesa) sales are up but everyone else’s sales seem to be down or at best flat.

Or did you specifically choose these Zips SD_R? It seems like a kinda best hits of where piggs want to live, so I didnt see anything too weird, but maybe these were specifically choosen as they are all down?

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]Date Zip #solds LP SP
9/07 92131 17 783k 746k
9/08 8 750k 735k
9/07 92129 21 633k 605k
9/08 8 567k 545k
9/07 92127 34 1.16M 1.09M
9/08 16 1.20M 1.09M
9/07 92009 22 832k 782k
9/08 18 870k 841k
9/07 92054 18 581k 558k
9/08 10 381k 375k
9/07 92078 25 598k 570k
9/08 17 534k 527k
9/07 92126 15 508k 486k
9/08 21 379k 376k
9/07 92037 14 2.65M 2.29M
9/08 9 2.04M 1.82M
9/07 92014 9 1.96M 1.81M
9/08 5 1.98M 1.67M
9/07 92106 5 1.16M 1.07M
9/08 5 1.20M 1.16M
9/07 92104 16 529k 510k
9/08 5 361k 351k
9/07 92103 7 833k 792k
9/08 4 698k 685k
9/07 91913 18 557k 534k
9/08 18 409k 410k

[/quote]

Maybe I am wrong, but I see sales down in most of the above. 92126 (mira mesa) sales are up but everyone else’s sales seem to be down or at best flat.

Or did you specifically choose these Zips SD_R? It seems like a kinda best hits of where piggs want to live, so I didnt see anything too weird, but maybe these were specifically choosen as they are all down?

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]Date Zip #solds LP SP
9/07 92131 17 783k 746k
9/08 8 750k 735k
9/07 92129 21 633k 605k
9/08 8 567k 545k
9/07 92127 34 1.16M 1.09M
9/08 16 1.20M 1.09M
9/07 92009 22 832k 782k
9/08 18 870k 841k
9/07 92054 18 581k 558k
9/08 10 381k 375k
9/07 92078 25 598k 570k
9/08 17 534k 527k
9/07 92126 15 508k 486k
9/08 21 379k 376k
9/07 92037 14 2.65M 2.29M
9/08 9 2.04M 1.82M
9/07 92014 9 1.96M 1.81M
9/08 5 1.98M 1.67M
9/07 92106 5 1.16M 1.07M
9/08 5 1.20M 1.16M
9/07 92104 16 529k 510k
9/08 5 361k 351k
9/07 92103 7 833k 792k
9/08 4 698k 685k
9/07 91913 18 557k 534k
9/08 18 409k 410k

[/quote]

Maybe I am wrong, but I see sales down in most of the above. 92126 (mira mesa) sales are up but everyone else’s sales seem to be down or at best flat.

Or did you specifically choose these Zips SD_R? It seems like a kinda best hits of where piggs want to live, so I didnt see anything too weird, but maybe these were specifically choosen as they are all down?

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]Date Zip #solds LP SP
9/07 92131 17 783k 746k
9/08 8 750k 735k
9/07 92129 21 633k 605k
9/08 8 567k 545k
9/07 92127 34 1.16M 1.09M
9/08 16 1.20M 1.09M
9/07 92009 22 832k 782k
9/08 18 870k 841k
9/07 92054 18 581k 558k
9/08 10 381k 375k
9/07 92078 25 598k 570k
9/08 17 534k 527k
9/07 92126 15 508k 486k
9/08 21 379k 376k
9/07 92037 14 2.65M 2.29M
9/08 9 2.04M 1.82M
9/07 92014 9 1.96M 1.81M
9/08 5 1.98M 1.67M
9/07 92106 5 1.16M 1.07M
9/08 5 1.20M 1.16M
9/07 92104 16 529k 510k
9/08 5 361k 351k
9/07 92103 7 833k 792k
9/08 4 698k 685k
9/07 91913 18 557k 534k
9/08 18 409k 410k

[/quote]

Maybe I am wrong, but I see sales down in most of the above. 92126 (mira mesa) sales are up but everyone else’s sales seem to be down or at best flat.

Or did you specifically choose these Zips SD_R? It seems like a kinda best hits of where piggs want to live, so I didnt see anything too weird, but maybe these were specifically choosen as they are all down?

[SD Realtor]

DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[SD Realtor]

DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[SD Realtor]

DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[SD Realtor]

DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[SD Realtor]

DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[/quote]

Thanks SD_R. I didnt think there was any bias methods, but that damn pesky analysis training I got tells me the first thing to do when you get data you were not expecting is to ask if anything happened to alter your data.

I think you nailed it with the part about attached housing. I dont think lenders are really dumping that many mass portfolios right now. They would have to book the losses then and what is the point of that when Unky Sam is coming to town for Christmans? New Home sales are down quiet a bit if I remember right. So apparently everyone is buying condo’s now.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[/quote]

Thanks SD_R. I didnt think there was any bias methods, but that damn pesky analysis training I got tells me the first thing to do when you get data you were not expecting is to ask if anything happened to alter your data.

I think you nailed it with the part about attached housing. I dont think lenders are really dumping that many mass portfolios right now. They would have to book the losses then and what is the point of that when Unky Sam is coming to town for Christmans? New Home sales are down quiet a bit if I remember right. So apparently everyone is buying condo’s now.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[/quote]

Thanks SD_R. I didnt think there was any bias methods, but that damn pesky analysis training I got tells me the first thing to do when you get data you were not expecting is to ask if anything happened to alter your data.

I think you nailed it with the part about attached housing. I dont think lenders are really dumping that many mass portfolios right now. They would have to book the losses then and what is the point of that when Unky Sam is coming to town for Christmans? New Home sales are down quiet a bit if I remember right. So apparently everyone is buying condo’s now.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SD Realtor]DW there was no method to my selection. I tried to get the zips that are most discussed here as well as some of our favorite high priced areas, Del Mar and LJ as well as other areas that have been pounded hard, Otay 91913, and Oceanside 92154.

The caviots that I would put forth are as follows:

– Only detached homes.
– Only MLS activity.

So what could we have missed. Auctions and/or portfolio purchases directly from lenders. New homes as well. Obviously attached homes.

[/quote]

Thanks SD_R. I didnt think there was any bias methods, but that damn pesky analysis training I got tells me the first thing to do when you get data you were not expecting is to ask if anything happened to alter your data.

I think you nailed it with the part about attached housing. I dont think lenders are really dumping that many mass portfolios right now. They would have to book the losses then and what is the point of that when Unky Sam is coming to town for Christmans? New Home sales are down quiet a bit if I remember right. So apparently everyone is buying condo’s now.

[Author]

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